????穆巴拉克倒臺后，埃及人相信繁榮和民主觸手可及。然而在穆巴拉克下臺后的過渡期中，掌權的武裝部隊最高委員會（Supreme Council of the Armed Forces）不僅沒有解決曠日持久的經濟問題，用他們自己的話說，也沒能“為民主鋪平道路”。穆罕默德?穆爾西——埃及第一位民選領袖掌權后，他一心想將穆斯林兄弟會（Muslim Brotherhood）的權力制度化，結果在這個過程中幾乎導致國家經濟全盤崩潰。一年之后，全體埃及人走上街頭示威，要求罷黜穆爾西——對于這一要求，軍方似乎非常樂意效勞。

????埃及人在社交媒體上表示，他們的經歷對于烏克蘭人民具有警示意義。如果在當時，埃及的領袖們——先是軍隊指揮官，后是穆斯林兄弟會——能夠創造機會，使得埃及人可以用民主的方式表達他們的不滿，那么埃及現階段不確定的政治局面、不穩定的國家形勢，以及時斷時續的暴力事件或許都可以得到避免。2011年埃及人的起義不單單是對經濟不滿，但2013年6月末及7月初的大規模游行，至少有一部分原因是埃及人對當時惡化的經濟條件的回應：燃料短缺、滾動式燈火管制、通貨膨脹、關鍵基礎設施的迅速惡化，以及穆爾西明顯的獨裁傾向。如果埃及人知道，他們本可保留向領袖們追責的權利，或許就不會讓軍隊回到政治家手里了。然而當時他們還相信，總統穆爾西正努力扭轉經濟崩潰的局勢，并為此負起責任。

????當然，烏克蘭與埃及不同，但并非完全不同。烏克蘭的新領袖們——如果稱得上是領袖的話——不僅需要頒布一系列政策以挽救國家經濟，還需要建立一種機制，確保民眾在領導人有負重托時有權追究他們的責任。（財富中文網）

????史蒂文?A?庫克是外交關系協會Hasib J. Sabbagh中東問題資深研究員,著有《為埃及而奮斗--從納賽爾到解放廣場》（牛津大學出版社出版）。

????譯者：朱毓芬/汪皓

????

????Following Mubarak's fall, Egyptians believed that prosperity and democracy were within their grasp. Yet the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which held power in the immediate post-Mubarak period, did little to address Egypt's yawning economic challenges nor -- in the officers' own words -- did they "pave the way for democracy." When the country's first democratically elected leader, Mohammed Morsi, came to power he presided over a near economic collapse while seeking to institutionalize the power of his Muslim Brotherhood. After a year, Egyptians took to the streets en masse to demand Morsi's ouster -- a call the military seemed only too happy to oblige.

????As Egyptians have made clear on social media, their experience is a cautionary tale for Ukrainians. Egypt's present political uncertainty, its instability, and its spasms of violence might have been avoided had the country's leaders -- first military commanders and then the Muslim Brothers -- provided an opportunity for Egyptians to process their grievances through democratic institutions. The uprising in 2011 was not solely about economics, but the enormous demonstrations of late June and early July 2013 were at least in part a response to worsening economic conditions such as fuel shortages, rolling blackouts, inflation, the rapid deterioration of critical infrastructure, and Morsi's clear authoritarian tendencies. Had Egyptians understood that they would be able to hold their leaders accountable, they likely would not have supported the return of the armed forces to politics, yet they believed that President Morsi was working to make it impossible to hold him responsible for the country's near economic collapse.

????Ukraine is different from Egypt of course, but not all that different. The country's new leaders -- if they are actually leaders -- not only need to pursue policies that will pull the country from the economic brink, but they need to establish the mechanisms for citizens to hold them accountable should they fail.

????Steven A. Cook is the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square(Oxford University Press).