????最近這些天，閱讀中國的經濟新聞可能會扭傷你的脖子。某個月，懷疑論者高舉虛弱的工業產出數值，驚呼“中國經濟即將崩潰！”下個月又輪到樂觀主義者大肆慶賀中國GDP增長7.7%這樣的向好數據。

????中國經濟前后搖動的最新跡象是近期的一波股票拋售潮。過去幾個月，中國股市下跌了15%，跌幅是其他新興市場的兩倍，似乎是股票交易者發出的恐慌信號。他們擔心中國可能無法抵御即將到來的挑戰，包括收緊失控的信貸，大規模的經濟轉型，也就是擺脫對龐大的基礎設施項目的依賴，走上一條更具可持續性的經濟發展之路。

????過去六個月的中國經濟報告時好時壞，但它們總體上在暗示，烏云就在前方。本文試圖逐一解析各項經濟指標的近期走勢，一窺中國經濟目前的狀況及其未來的發展方向。

采購經理人指數

????半年前，中國的采購經理人指數 (PMI，這是衡量一國經濟實力的重要指標之一)沖上16個月以來的最高點。經歷了兩個令人失望的季度之后，中國經濟似乎正在趨穩。來自PMI的好消息提振了市場的信心，促使人們相信習近平主席和李克強總理領銜的中國新一代領導集體有能力應對猖獗的影子銀行體系和銀行超額放貸問題，同時又不至于扼殺經濟增速。當時的主要憂慮似乎是，美聯儲削減國債購買規模的計劃到底會對中國經濟造成多大的傷害。

房地產

????緊跟在這份好心情之后的是一直延續到去年年末的房價瘋漲勢頭。去年12月份，北京和廣州的房價同比上漲了近30%。與此同時，一些三四線城市的房價開始下跌。中國的房地產市場現在出現了一道裂痕：最富裕的城市仍然紅紅火火，而一些小城市已經開始趔趄。“房價持續下跌意味著銀行將出現更多的不良貸款，它們將不得不進一步收縮貸款規模，”清華-布魯金斯公共政策研究中心(Brookings-Tsinghua Center)代理主任、中國人民大學（Renmin University）經濟學教授陶然這樣說道。“如果最終出現信貸緊縮，房地產泡沫可能就會破滅。”這一幕可能會率先從小城市開始，然后逐漸向大城市蔓延。房價上漲對任何其它經濟體而言都是經濟基本面健康的體現，但在中國，飆漲的房價意味著，房地產市場崩潰的幾率正在與日俱增。

救助

????今年1月份，一位未透露身份的接盤人（很有可能是政府）救助了一個規模高達5億美元、名為“誠至金開1號”(Credit Equals Gold No. 1)的風險投資產品。雖然中國避免了信托行業的第一起違約事件——根據上一次測算，專為有錢人尋找高息投資機會的中國信托業已經發展到大約1.6萬億美元的規模——但它并不是一個鼓舞人心的消息。其他潛伏在暗處的不良投資是否也面臨著類似的命運？它是不是讓人聯想到貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns )旗下那兩只于2007年年中崩盤、暗示其他金融機構存在同樣問題的對沖基金？

還是采購經理人指數

????二月初，中國的PMI指數下降到了50.5，抵達6個月以來的最低點（PMI指數50為榮枯分水嶺。大于50說明經濟在發展，小于50說明經濟在衰退）。就在這些數字出爐前，中國政府剛剛發布消息稱，中國2013年GDP增速為7.7%，依然令人印象深刻。這個PMI數字非常可怕，因為它預示著，隨著中國收緊信貸，同時逐漸擺脫對出口的依賴，中國經濟有可能嚴重放緩。誰都知道中國最終需要調整經濟發展模式，但這個過程不一定會順利。不斷下降的PMI指數就是在提醒人們注意這一點。

股票拋售

????最后來談一談新興市場在過去幾個月的股票拋售浪潮：仔細審視相關數據之后，德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)發現了一個發人深省的問題。分析師重點研究了中國H股指數和A股指數之間的股價表現差異（H股在香港上市，由全球投資者廣泛持有；A股在大陸上市，不對外國人開放）。他們發現，在截止2月中旬的兩個月，A股指數僅下跌了6%，而H股指數則下跌了16%。這些分析師總結稱，股市并不是在刻意懲罰中國，而是在懲罰所有其他新興市場時順帶著打壓了一下中國。他們寫道，“對H股指數與A股指數跌幅相差10個百分點這一現象唯一有意義的解釋是，全球投資者正在不加區分地拋售新興市場股票。”

????從許多指標來看，中國經濟目前起伏不定，但股市多少讓我們對世界第二大經濟體的前景抱有一絲樂觀情緒。（財富中文網）

????譯者：葉寒

????You can get whiplash from reading the economic news coming out of China these days. One month the skeptics hold up weak industrial output and exclaim, "Crash ahead!" The next month, the bulls are back celebrating things like China's 7.7% GDP growth last year.

????The latest sign of China's economic to-and-fro was the recent stock selloff. Chinese shares dropped by 15% over the last couple months, doubling the decline of other emerging market shares, in what seemed like a panic signal from traders worried about China's ability to weather upcoming obstacles, including tightening runaway credit and undergoing a massive pivot away from huge infrastructure projects to more sustainable economic growth.

????The reports have been back-and-forth for the past six months, but overall they hint at some dark clouds ahead. Here, then, is a breakdown of the indicators' recent history, where the economy is now, and where it could be headed.

PMI

????Six months ago, China's Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, a key gauge of the economy's strength, was hitting 16-month highs. The economy looked to be stabilizing after a couple disappointing quarters. The PMI news boosted confidence that the country's new leadership in President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang could tackle rampant shadow banking and banks' excess-lending without killing growth. The chief concern back then seemed to be how much the Fed's cutback in bond purchases, or tapering, would hurt China's economy.

Real estate

????The good spirits were followed by skyrocketing housing prices through the end of last year. Prices rose nearly 30% year over year in December in Beijing and Guangzhou. At the same time, prices in some of the country's smaller third- and fourth-tier cities fell. There's now a break in the market: China's most affluent cities are still booming while smaller ones are starting to falter. "If they continue to drop, that will mean banks will have more nonperforming loans, and they will have to further contract lending," says Ran Tao, Acting Director at Brookings-Tsinghua Center in Beijing and professor of economics at Renmin University. "Finally, if there's a credit crunch, the housing bubble may burst." That could start in the smaller cities, and then make its way to the bigger ones. Rising real estate prices can be healthy for any economy, but in China they're rising so fast that the odds of a crash are growing with them.

Bailouts

????In January, an unnamed source -- most likely the government -- bailed out a $500-million risky bank investment called Credit Equals Gold No. 1. While China averted the first default in its trust industry-- an industry that last measured around $1.6 trillion in size and is tailored for rich people searching for high-interest investments -- the news wasn't encouraging. What does it say about other bad bets lurking in the shadows? Was this reminiscent of two Bear Stearns hedge funds blowing up in mid-2007, which intimated problems elsewhere in the financial system?

PMI, again

????In the beginning of February, China's PMI fell to 50.5, a six-month low (above 50 signals growth). The numbers came just after the news that China posted still-impressive 7.7% GDP growth in 2013. The PMI number was scary because it portended a potential deep slowdown as the country tightens credit and shifts away from a reliance on exports. Everyone knows China eventually needs to shift its economy, but that process won't necessarily be smooth. The falling PMI was a reminder of that.

Stock selloff

????And about that emerging markets selloff the past couple months: Deutsche Bank took a closer look at the figures and found something revealing. The analysts focused on the difference between the stock performance of China's H share index and A share index -- the difference being that H shares are listed in Hong Kong and widely held by global investors, whereas A shares are listed in the mainland and not open to foreigners. What they found was that during the two months leading to mid-February, the A share index fell only 6% while the H shares dropped 16%. They concluded that the stock market wasn't punishing China, but throwing it out with all the other emerging markets. They wrote, "The only meaningful explanation for the 10% under performance of the H share index is the indiscriminate selling of emerging market equities by global investors."

????The stock market offers some optimism for the Chinese economy facing plenty of other ups and downs.