????2013年遭到重創的黃金出現了溫和反彈——年初以來，金價已經上漲了近10%。

????不過，目前的反彈能讓金價再次進入持續多年的上升通道嗎？還是說，這個反彈只是曇花一現？為了回答這個問題，分析師克勞德?埃布在他新發表的研究報告里探討了金價和黃金股的關系。埃布的結論是，從歷史上看，金價和黃金股一直聯系緊密。

????The golden bloodbath of 2013 has given way to a modest recovery for the precious metal, as the price of gold has risen nearly 10% since the beginning of the new year.

????But is this turnaround the beginning of another years-long run-up in the price of gold or just a temporary blip? In a new research paper, analyst Claude Ebb looks at the price of gold as it relates to gold mining stocks to find an answer. He points out that, historically, the price of gold and gold miners' stocks have been closely linked.

????上圖為1993年9月至2013年9月金價與黃金股指數之間的走勢曲線。其中藍色曲線為紐約證券交易所ARCA黃金類股票指數，紅色為黃金價格。數據來源：彭博

????可以看到，金價和黃金股的關聯性很高。但最近幾年，黃金股下跌的幅度遠遠超過了金價。因此，如果今后二者繼續維系這樣的緊密聯系，要么金價得下跌50%，要么黃金股得上漲100%左右。

????那么，是金價影響黃金股呢？還是黃金股影響金價呢？埃布提出了以下觀點：

????? 金價體現的是已開采黃金的供給和需求關系

????? 黃金股的價值體現的是未開采黃金的現值

????如果這兩點正確無誤，那么金價最終會跟隨黃金股的腳步，而不是相反。畢竟，如果黃金股的價格告訴我們的是未來黃金的現值，我們就應該認為金價將隨著黃金開采公司的價值相向而動。

????當然，黃金股和黃金本身的聯系有可能已經土崩瓦解。也許投資者只是對黃金開采公司的管理層或者它們黃金開采業務的盈利能力失去了信心。研究及投資機構Behind the Numbers證券分析師威爾?貝克爾去年發表過一篇有關黃金開采公司的報告。他在報告中指出，這些公司面臨著一連串的問題，比如無法獲得資金，采礦權使用費和開采稅上升以及金礦石質量下降等。

????實際上，金礦石的平均品位已經降至每噸1.5克。貝克爾在報告中寫道：“這么說吧，1950年美國、加拿大和澳大利亞的平均金礦石品位是每噸12克，2009年是每噸3克左右。”換句話說，世界上易于開采的黃金可能已經很少了。當然，對金價來說這可能是個非常有利的跡象，原因是全球黃金供應的增長速度可能大幅度下降。

????說到底，黃金的價值將取決于今后它在全球貨幣體系中發揮的作用。如果開采黃金的難度真的越來越大，有錢人就會用其他漂亮金屬來打造珠寶首飾，同時通過其他一些投資渠道來對沖通脹和尾部風險。

????相反，在政府讓其他形式的貨幣全面貶值的情況下，如果黃金最終成為投資者的唯一避難所，它的價值就會大幅度上升。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????

????As you can see, the price of gold and gold miner stocks are highly correlated, but the decline in stock prices in recent years has far outpaced the decline in the price of the actual metal. So, if this relationship is to hold in the future, either the price of gold will have to depreciate by 50%, or the price of mining stocks will have to appreciate by roughly 100%.

????So, then, does the price of gold drive the price of gold mining companies or vice versa? Ebb suggests the following:

????? The price of gold reflects the supply and demand of already mined gold

????? The value of a gold miner reflects the present value of yet-to-be-mined gold

????If these two ideas are accurate, then the price of gold will eventually follow the price of gold mining stocks rather than vice versa. After all, if the price of gold mining stocks tells us the present value of gold in the future, then we should expect the price of gold to follow the value of gold mining companies.

????Of course, there's always the possibility that the relationship between gold mining stocks and gold itself has broken down. Perhaps investors have simply lost faith in the management of the gold mining companies or their ability to profitably mine gold. Will Becker, a securities analyst at Behind the Numbers, released a research report last year on gold mining companies in which he argued that mining companies are facing a slew of troubles, like an inability to secure financing, increased royalty fees, taxes on mining, and the declining quality of gold ore.

????In fact, the average grade of gold mined has fallen to 1.5 grams per tonne of ore. "To put this in perspective, average ore grades in the U.S., Canada, and Australia were at 12 grams per tonne in 1950 and around 3 grams per tonne in 2009," Becker writes. In other words, the world might simply be running low on easily mineable gold. That, of course, could be a very bullish sign for gold prices, as the increase in world supply of gold could be slowing dramatically.

????In the end, gold's value will hinge on the future role the precious metal will play in the global monetary system. If gold is, in fact, becoming more difficult to mine, the wealthy will find some other pretty metal to adorn themselves with and some other investment to hedge against inflation and tail risks.

????If, on the other hand, gold will ultimately function as the only refuge for investors in a world where governments are debasing every other form of currency, then the precious metal stands to appreciate far beyond its current value.