????我猜只有經過這個階段后，局勢的發展才會出現變數，原因是現在的新興經濟體和過去相比存在相當大的差異。實際上，重點在于人們要意識到二者之間存在下面七個關鍵差別：

????? 10年來，新興市場主權資產的平均質量明顯提高——評級從“Ba2/BB”上升到了“Baa3/BBB”【依據的是投資者普遍關注的摩根大通全球新興市場債券指數（EMBIG index）】；

????? 新興市場的整體債務/GDP比例僅為35%，遠低于以往；

????? 債務結構明顯改善——短期債務規模下降，貨幣錯配現象大為減少；

????? 新興市場持有8萬億美元國際儲備，形成了相當大的資金緩沖；

????? 大多數新興經濟體實際上都取消了僵化的匯率機制，而這種機制面對投機者的侵襲時顯得特別脆弱；

????? 一些具有系統重要性的新興經濟體似乎已經可以接觸到西方主要央行重新啟用的掉期工具；

????? 公司層面，企業普遍變得更有韌性，而且能更好地應對金融震蕩。

????當然，這種對新興市場資產的整體判斷并不適用于所有國家和地區。阿根廷等一些國家特別容易受到影響，原因是它們還包含著很大的特殊政治風險——考慮到它們滿滿當當的政治日程，這種風險還將繼續存在一段時間。不過，作為一個資產類別來說，以往威脅新興市場的因素——比如范圍不斷擴大的連續違約、匯率持續過度上升以及國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）參與的多項緊張談判——對前者的影響已經顯著減弱。

????盡管新興經濟體對市場震蕩仍然敏感，但和過去局勢不利時相比，新興經濟體目前在金融方面的系統性威脅已經大為下降。它們的自我保護程度超過了10年前，金融結構也普遍變得更加牢固。此外，針對新興市場風險的廣泛探討已經持續了很多個月份，從而降低了金融市場出現系統性意外事件的可能性。

????話雖如此，但在自鳴得意之前，我們應該記住另一個重要因素，那就是如今新興市場在全球經濟增長中的分量遠遠超過以往。

????IMF的數據顯示，10年來新興市場在全球GDP中的比重已經從20%上升到了38%（按購買力平價計算，這個數字將更高）。此外，按主要貨幣計算，過去10年全球GDP的實際增長幾乎有三分之二來自這些國家和地區。

????當然，沒有那個國家比中國更能凸顯人們新近發現的新興市場日益增長的系統重要性。目前中國是世界第二大經濟體，占全球GDP的12%，是10年前的三倍多。實際上，單憑這一個原因，密切關注中國抑制國內信貸過快增長的舉措就有可能給投資者和決策者帶來很大收獲。

????如今，新興市場震蕩更多地通過經濟渠道對全球其他地區產生持續性影響，而不是金融渠道，而且前者的作用要遠大于后者。因此，情況最終將變得更加微妙。所以，新興市場已經不再是一個性質統一的資產類別，雖然這個認識有悖于人們對整個新興市場做出大膽預期的本能意愿。相反，新興市場是一個存在技術性關聯的集合，但各個成員國在經濟方面的差異相當大。新興市場作為一個資產類別，它的投資方法應該高度差異化。（財富中文網）

????本文作者穆罕默德?艾爾-俄萊恩是太平洋投資管理公司即將離任的首席執行官兼聯席首席投資官。

????譯者：Charlie

????

????I suspect that it is only after this stage plays out that the script will evolve differently, reflecting some notable changes between today's emerging economies as a group and those of yesteryears. Indeed, it is important to recognize the following seven key differences:

????? The average asset quality of EM sovereigns has improved markedly in the last ten years -- from Ba2/BB to Baa3/BBB (as measured by the widely followed EMBIG index);

????? At just 35%, their combined public debt-to-GDP is considerably lower than before;

????? The composition of debt is a lot better -- fewer short-term obligations and much lower currency mismatches;

????? At $8 trillion, international reserve holdings provide considerable funding buffers;

????? Most emerging economies have effectively exited rigid currency regimes that were particularly vulnerable to speculator attacks;

????? Some of the systemically important emerging economies seem to have ready access to reactivated swap facilities at major western central banks; and

????? At the corporate level, businesses are generally more resilient and better able to navigate financial volatility.

????Of course, what is true for the asset class as a whole is not true for every country. Some like Argentina and Ukraine are particularly vulnerable as they also incorporate heightened political idiosyncratic risks -- a dimension that will be around for a while given the packed political calendar in several countries. Yet, as an asset class, EM is considerably less prone to the old threats of spreading serial defaults, sustained currency overshoots, and multiple tense IMF negotiations.

????Notwithstanding their continued sensitivity to volatility bouts, today's emerging economies constitute much less of a systemic financial threat than they did in the bad old days. Their degree of self-insurance is greater than what it was 10 years ago, and their financial structures are generally more robust. In addition, there has been extensive discussion of EM risks over a period of numerous months, making a systemic surprise event in financial markets less likely.

????Having said that, and before we let ourselves slip into complacency, we should remember another important fact: Today's EM are a much bigger part of the global growth equation.

????According to IMF data, EM's share in global GDP have increased from 20% to 38% in the last 10 years (and even more in PPP terms). Moreover, this group of countries has contributed almost two-thirds of real global GDP growth in the past 10 years at prevailing exchange rates.

????Of course, no single country exemplifies the newfound systemic growth prominence of emerging markets more than China. China is now the world's second-largest economy, accounting for 12% of global GDP -- three times more than a decade ago. Indeed, for this reason alone, both investors and policymakers would be well-served to keep a close eye on China's efforts to control excessive domestic credit growth.

????These days, the durable impact on the rest of the world of an EM disruption will operate much more through economic channels and less through financial ones. As such, it will end up being more nuanced. So, contrary to the natural desire to make bold predictions for the asset class as a whole, this is no longer a homogenous asset class. Instead, it is a collective of technically linked but economically quite diverse names; and it is an asset class that warrants a highly differentiated investment approach.

????Mohamed A. El-Erian is the outgoing chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco.