????美國和新興國家對鉆石的需求正在持續增長。

????黃金已經失去了吸引力，至少作為一種投資而言已然如此。自從在2011年夏季上沖至每盎司1,900美元以來，黃金價格已經暴跌了30％。這次暴跌也促使以實物黃金為支持的交易所交易基金（ETF）出現資金外流。但現在投資者正在把目光投向另一種貴重物資——鉆石。

????近幾個月以來，圍繞鉆石有可能首次成為一種真正資產類別的興奮情緒一直在逐漸增強。與黃金不同，鉆石目前沒有現貨價格，而且除了珠寶商和當鋪之外，也沒有任何傳統市場。著名的新興市場投資者馬克?墨比爾斯最近在接受財經網站《市場觀察》（MarketWatch）的采訪時表示，他已經走訪了各大典當經銷商，搜集鉆石市場的第一手信息。他認為，鉆石市場即將進入一輪牛市，而且最終可能會通過基金向投資者提供投資渠道。

????事實上，貝恩公司及其他機構一直在追蹤調查投資者對鉆石的興趣，同時思考從投資方面來看鉆石是否會成為下一個黃金或鉑金。 2013年3月，一群對沖基金交易員成立了總部位于洛杉磯的鉆石投資交易所（Investment Diamond Exchange）。在那里，投資者可以購買實物鉆石（但無意把鉆石加工成首飾）。然后在2013年9月，芝加哥一家名為GemShares的公司宣布與納斯達克OMX集團合作，設立GemShares全球投資等級標準鉆石一籃子指數（GemShares Global Investment Grade Standard Diamond Basket Index）。這個指數可以用來創建一只完全以實物鉆石為支持的交易所交易基金。

????正在推動鉆石需求的一個意外因素是，中國對訂婚鉆戒相對而言新近形成、然而又急速增長的需求。當然，準新郎花花一大筆錢購買鉆戒早已是美國人訂婚程序的一項標準內容。但普信集團（T. Rowe Price）全球金屬與礦業策略的投資組合經理里克?德?洛斯?雷耶斯說，就在幾年前，它對中國人來說，基本上還是一個陌生的觀念。不過，隨著中國的財富增長，加上中國獨生子女政策導致女性與男性的比例降低，中國女性已經找到了一位可以說是最好的新朋友。 雷耶斯說：“如果你是一名中國女性，而且想要一枚鉆戒的話，那么你一定能找到一位愿意給你一枚鉆戒的男人。中國的女人差不多掌握著全部的控制權。”

????同時，因為經濟持續好轉，美國的鉆石需求同樣也有所增加。市場研究公司拉帕波特集團（Rapaport Group）公布的數據顯示，2013年美國進口了近230億美元的成品鉆石，與2012年相比增長了16％以上。這家公司自己設有的鉆石價格指數顯示，去年鉆石的平均價格上漲了近14％，達到每克拉1,855美元。

????不過，一些分析師仍然懷疑，鉆石投資是否能像購買黃金或其他貴金屬那樣簡單可行。畢竟，黃金是按照盎司重量定價的，而鉆石的定級不僅要根據它們的大小（即克拉重量），而且還取決于它們的切工、凈度和色澤，甚至在一定程度上還取決于個人看法。貝恩最近發布的一份報告顯示，這四個因素（即鉆石的4C）存在多達1.6萬種影響每枚鉆石價格的組合，再加上一定程度的主觀性，鉆石價值鑒定差異的幅度最高可達30％。

????銷售諸如金條和鉑金條等實物資產的貴金屬交易所APMEX首席執行官（CEO）邁克爾?海恩斯不清楚自己的客戶是否會對鉆石感興趣。雖然海恩斯在鑒定和分級鉆石方面擁有一定的經驗，他本人甚至還擁有一些鉆石，但他說鉆石質量參差不齊，從而使得它們成為一種與金條完全不同的資產，而且以一種不同的理念吸引著投資者。他說： “我敢肯定，我們有喜歡購買石油、天然氣和波音公司股票的金條買家，但我認為他們中間不會有很多人同時愿意購買鉆石。”

????雷耶斯表示，進一步促使鉆石市場復雜化的因素是，消費者的喜好會變化無常。比如，目前流行的是深褐色鉆石。但前一輪熱衷于粉色鉆石的趨勢最終自然而然地結束了，結果迫使市場在需求下降時做出相應調整。雷耶斯說：“如果鉆石的價格在很大程度上只是基于時尚的話，大家怎樣才能給作為投資產品的鉆石定價呢？”

????雖然他對未來市場上出現鉆石ETF的可能性頗感興趣，但現在雷耶斯仍然將繼續專注于礦業股，比如英國公司佩特拉鉆石公司（這家公司的股票在倫敦掛牌交易，交易代碼為PDL），而他效力的普信正是這家公司的大股東之一。（財富中文網）

????譯者：陳瑋/ iDo98

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????Demand for diamonds is growing in the U.S. and the emerging world.

????Gold has lost its luster -- at least as an investment. Since hitting $1,900 an ounce in the summer of 2011, the price of the shiny metal has plunged some 30%. That fall has prompted an exodus from gold-backed ETFs. But now investors are setting their sights on another precious material: diamonds.

????Excitement has been building in recent months around the potential of diamonds to become a veritable asset class for the first time. Unlike gold, the gems currently have no spot price or conventional market besides jewelers and pawn shops. The renowned emerging markets investor Mark Mobius recently told MarketWatch that he has visited pawn resellers to get a firsthand view of the market for diamonds, which he believes are on the cusp of a boom, and which may eventually be available to investors via funds.

????Indeed, Bain & Company and other institutions have been tracking investors' interest in diamonds and pondering whether the jewel, in investment terms, could become the next gold or platinum. In March 2013, a group of hedge fund traders launched the Los Angeles-based Investment Diamond Exchange, where investors can buy physical diamonds (with no intention of making them into jewelry). And in September, a Chicago company called GemShares announced a partnership with the Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) to develop the GemShares Global Investment Grade Standard Diamond Basket Index, which could be used to create an exchange traded fund backed entirely by real diamonds.

????One surprising factor that's driving demand is the relatively new but exploding appetite in China for diamond engagement rings. Prospective grooms splurging on a diamond is, of course, a standard part of the American engagement process. But it was largely a foreign concept to the Chinese until just a few years ago, says Rick de los Reyes, portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price's Global Metals and Mining Strategy. As wealth in China has increased and the country's one-child policy has left the country with a smaller ratio of females to males, however, those women have discovered a new best friend, so to speak. "If you're a woman in China and you want a diamond ring, you can certainly find a man to get you one," says de los Reyes. "You're pretty much in the driver's seat."

????Diamond demand has increased in the U.S., too, thanks to the strengthening economy. The U.S. imported nearly $23 billion of polished diamonds in 2013, up more than 16% from 2012, according to the Rapaport Group, a market research firm that maintains its own index for diamond prices. According to that index, the average price of diamonds increased almost 14% to $1,855 per carat last year.

????Still, some analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of making investing in diamonds as simple as buying gold or other precious metals. After all, while gold is priced per ounce, diamonds are graded based not only on their size, but on their cut, clarity, and color -- and to a certain extent, the eye of the beholder. According to a recent report by Bain, there are up to 16,000 combinations of those four factors that influence the price of each stone, plus a degree of subjectivity, as value appraisals can differ by as much as 30%.

????Michael Haynes, the CEO of the precious metals exchange APMEX, which sells physical assets like gold and platinum bars, isn't sure his clients would even be interested in diamonds. While Haynes has experience authenticating and grading diamonds -- he even owns some himself -- he says the varying quality of diamonds makes them a different breed of asset than bullion, and attracts investors with a different philosophy. "I'm sure we have bullion buyers who like to buy oil and gas and Boeing stock, but I don't see a large overlap with diamond buyers," he says.

????Further complicating the diamond market, says de los Reyes, is that consumers' tastes can be fickle. Chocolate diamonds, for example, are popular right now. But a previous trend of pink diamonds eventually ran its course, forcing the market to adjust when demand dropped off. "How do you price that when a lot of it's just based on fashion?" de los Reyes says.

????While he's intrigued by the possibility of diamond ETFs in the future, for now, de los Reyes is sticking with mining stocks, like the British company Petra Diamonds (which trades in London under the ticker PDL), of which T. Rowe is one of the largest shareholders.