????比特幣應用于零售業的美妙情景時常在比特幣擁護者的腦海中涌現。如果在線零售商只需要給比特幣平臺支付1%的手續費，而不是信用卡的2%-3%，他們就能大幅提高原本微薄的利潤。有人問，還需要多久，主流零售商才會給使用比特幣付款的客戶提供折扣，把它當作實現利潤最大化的手段呢？這樣的折扣可以讓比特幣在短時間內迅速普及。

????不過埃塞仍然認為，加密貨幣也面臨著可能將把它扼殺于搖籃之中的挑戰，首當其沖的就是來自政府的管制。“大國屈指可數”，而他們當中只要有幾個國家執行不利的管制，就會讓加密貨幣的功能在很長時間內大大受限。

????即使加密貨幣成為我們交易的媒介之一，我們也同樣不能斷定比特幣就會是唯一的一種加密貨幣，甚至也無法肯定它就一定是應用最廣的那種加密貨幣。埃塞表示，隨著與之競爭的加密貨幣系統整合了所需的特色、更強大的功能，或者僅僅只是采用了更有效的市場推廣手段，都很可能導致比特幣在未來“根本搶不到任何市場份額?！弊罱S著比特幣代碼出現“交易延展性”問題，人們認為比特幣交易可能存在系統性的缺陷，結果導致比特幣價格大跳水。加密貨幣市場的一個部門可以將包括比特幣在內的獨立系統的未來價值維持在較低的水準。（爆料：埃塞和創造另一種密碼學貨幣系統的公司Ripple Labs進行了協商。）

????這一切風險最終將導致什么結果，目前仍然難以預料。埃塞認為，它解釋了比特幣價格目前波動劇烈的原因。“我們現在沒理由認為，一切有識之士應該就各國政府在監管方面的反應達成共識。而且，盡管每個人都在宣傳比特幣的基本原理，但涉及這些基本原理的信息依然有大量信息不斷傳來。比特幣的價格持續變化也就不足為奇了?！?/p>

????不過，這種價格波動跟某些角落里傳出的觀點完全是兩碼事，比特幣的價格并不是一群人白日做夢的結果。退一步說，盡管郵件中指出的比特幣單價5萬美元起碼來說談不上準確，但這種觀點只是一個起點。邏輯更加嚴密、預測涵蓋了某些孤注一擲的小概率需求的數學模型絕不僅僅只是一種可能性，也許它事實上已經以不同的版本存在于許多投資者的硬盤里了。

????蘇珊?埃塞認為，與思考特定加密貨幣的價值問題相比，思考比特幣的創新將給金融業帶來怎樣的巨變更令人激動?！罢嬲齽幽X筋想一想我們今天在銀行系統做的事情……我們會驚訝的發現，時間已經到了2014年，我們居然還在按照這樣的模式進行商業運作。凡事都會變，這是自然的事。唯一令人不可思議的是，商業模式至今還沒有改變?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）

????譯者：嚴匡正

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????One fascinating adoption scenario frequently floated among bitcoin adherents is specific to retail. Online retailers' razor-thin profit margins get a huge boost when they pay a bitcoin processor's fee of about 1% instead of credit card fees of 2-3%. How long will it be, some ask, before a major retailer offers a discount for those paying in bitcoin, as a way to maximize that increased profit margin? Such a discount could drive significant bitcoin adoption in a very short timeframe.

????Still, Athey believes that cryptocurrency also faces challenges that could kill it in its crib, above all from government regulations. "There's [only] a small number of big countries," and adverse regulation in just a few of them could render cryptocurrency far less functional in the long term.

????It's just as uncertain whether, even if cryptocurrency becomes part of how we transact, bitcoin will be the only, or even the most adopted. "There's a big probability that there's a zero market share for bitcoin" in the future, says Athey, as competing cryptocurrency systems integrate desired features, better functionality, or simply more effective marketing campaigns. The price plunge following recent revelations about "transaction malleability" in the bitcoin code point to the dangers of even perceived systemic flaws. A division in the cryptocurrency market could keep future values of individual systems, including bitcoin, relatively low. (Disclosure: Athey consults with Ripple Labs, creators of a competing cryptocurrency system.)

????The outcomes of all of these risks are still very hard to predict, and Athey thinks this explains the current volatility in bitcoin's price. "There's no reason to think right now that all reasonable people should agree on the regulatory reaction of various governments. [And] even if everyone was just broadcasting the fundamentals, a lot of information has been coming out about the fundamentals. It's not surprising that the value should be changing."

????Still, this is much different than the impression from some corners that the price of bitcoin is nothing more than a shared fantasy. While the email pointing to a $50,000 bitcoin is imprecise to say the least, it's a starting point. A more rigorous mathematical model integrating demand projections with probabilities of certain make-or-break contingencies isn't just possible -- it likely already exists, in various versions, across various investors' hard drives.

????For Susan Athey, though, the question of a specific cryptocurrency's value seems less exciting than contemplating the broad changes that bitcoin's innovation will bring to finance. "When you really think about what we do today in the banking system ... it's kind of stunning that that's the way we do business in 2014. It seems very natural that things will change. It's only surprising that they haven't changed already."

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