????Hedgeye的宏觀分析發現，物價繼續上揚，使得通脹對投資者來說成為一種更糟糕的局面。根據美國供應管理協會（ISM）對制造業和服務業的調查中，支付價格指標出現上升。耐用品訂單、消費品零售、消費趨勢、住房需求和房價的漲勢全面放緩，美國國債收益率差也在縮小，表明經濟增長前景正在變得更糟糕。ISM服務業新訂單指數——ISM調查中體現今后經濟活動的最佳先行指標——已經回落到了2009年7月的水平；ISM制造業新訂單指數則出現了1980年12月以來的最大月環比跌幅。當時，美國經濟即將陷入衰退，而且在隨后的兩年中一直處于低迷狀態。

????聯邦規劃和監管部門眼下正忙著說服公眾，讓他們相信，一切都在掌握之中。但實際上，監管層并不知道哪些因素會引發新一輪危機。其實，新的危機可能已經出現，誘因就是美聯儲為了提高通脹率、促進出口而壓低美元匯率——而促進出口的對象是（截至目前）明顯表現出眾的印度和英國。這些政策的長期影響不是增強經濟實力，而是造成更大的差距，從而使社會更有可能出現不穩定局面，新興市場也可能全面崩潰，而美國對此毫無準備。

????在這種情況下，可選方案有限，麥卡洛希望耶倫能明確表示，美聯儲將繼續降低購債規模，同時繼續收緊政策，從而使美元走強，幫助美國經濟再次出現較快的增長。

????但麥卡洛說：“希望本身并不是一種風險管理策略。”（財富中文網）

????本文作者是Hedgeye風險管理公司董事總經理，著有《修復破碎的華爾街》一書。

????譯者：Charlie

????

????Hedgeye's macro analysis finds the rate of change in prices continues its upward trend, making the inflationary scenario worse for investors. The Prices Paid component is up in the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services Surveys. Durable goods orders, retail sales, consumer trends, housing demand, and home prices are all slowing, and the U.S. Treasury's yield spread is compressing, indicating a worsening growth outlook. SM services new orders -- the best lead indicator of future activity in the survey -- are back down to the level they were in July 2009, and ISM manufacturing new orders just had their biggest month-over-month decline since December 1980, the eve of a recession that battered the nation for two years.

????Central planners and regulators are busy assuring their citizens that things are under control, but the reality is that regulators don't know what forces will cause the next crisis. In fact, we may already be in the midst of the next crisis, spurred by central bankers trashing their currencies to stoke price inflation and stimulate exports -- with notable standouts (so far) India and the U.K. The lasting impact of these policies is not economic strength, but greater inequality, with an increasing likelihood of social unrest and a possible collapse across emerging markets, for which the U.S. is not prepared.

????In this limited options scenario, McCullough hopes for an unequivocal statement from Yellen that the Fed will continue to taper and continue to tighten. That would strengthen the dollar and help set the U.S. economy back on a stronger growth track.

????But "Hope," says McCullough, "is not a risk management strategy."

????Moshe Silver is a Managing Director at Hedgeye Risk Management and author of Fixing a Broken Wall Street.