????信不信由你，就在其他方面的通脹壓力不斷堆積的時候，大宗商品價格正在向上突破。不相信？看看金價吧。今年初以來，金價漲幅已經超過了7%，而標普500指數（S&P 500）則下跌了1.5%。同時，路透商品研究局（CRB）商品價格指數年初以來已經上漲了4%。

????眼下的情況讓人心神不寧，但跟通縮沒什么關系。

????如果美聯儲（Federal Reserve）主席詹尼特?耶倫決定將削減購債規模的計劃倒轉過來以便“拯救”股市，由此產生的影響可能造成美元匯率下跌，同時促使投資者追逐收益率，由此可能導致抗通脹資產的價格上升，引發新一輪降低經濟增長速度的大宗商品價格上漲。

????2011-2012年見頂后，大宗商品價格在2013年跌入低谷。受去年價格下跌影響，階段性比較變得特別敏感，因此大宗商品價格的小幅上升看起來就是同比增長。但它只是一個表面現象，而非實際的經濟走勢。但制定政策的依據以及市場陷入恐慌的原因就是表面情況如何，而不是它實際表現如何。

????投資研究機構Hedgeye首席執行官基思?麥卡洛認為，我們不太可能看到2011-2012年那樣的真正通脹（當時美聯儲并沒有發現物價在上漲的情況）。但隨著人們意識到大宗商品價格上漲以及與之相伴的經濟增速放緩和股價下跌，就會有人懷疑美聯儲將再次放松政策，以便為正在失去動力的經濟提供支持。如果耶倫在壓縮購債規模方面開倒車，股市可能會短暫上行。但美元將在全球范圍內下跌，進而造成通脹率以更快的速度上升。

????美國總統奧巴馬下令提高工資之前，工資上漲的速度就已經在逐步加快。儲蓄率向著歷史最低點下滑，消費再次取代了儲蓄。2013年第三季度，美國居民總負債出現了18個季度以來的首次正增長。居民去杠桿化延續了5年后，再次出現了以信貸為動力的消費增長。如果消費者因為買漲不買跌而開始擔心通脹，過度消費現象就可能加劇。

????通脹可能造成股市估值水平下降，而這和大多數華爾街策略分析師的預期正好相反。去年經濟增長和通脹上升的速度雙雙加快，樂觀的投資者因此賦予股市較高的市盈率，物價也因此上漲。現在，大宗商品價格上漲的速度正在加快，但美國經濟增長出現了放緩跡象。這種趨勢不是什么好事，這種局面也不容易對付，而且政界沒有誰希望聽到別人說政策方面最好的方案就是按兵不動，靜待這個階段走到盡頭。因為這樣會增加美聯儲采取其他補救措施的風險。

????由于華爾街的預期過于樂觀，投資者并沒有為經濟減速和股票估值水平下降做好準備。麥卡洛說，大宗商品價格似乎跑在了美聯儲政策的前面——如果耶倫倒轉壓縮購債規模的政策，針對通脹的投資就可能激增。隨著股市下跌，CRB商品價格指數等廣義通脹指標的最低點正在不斷上升。

????Believe it or not, commodity prices are breaking out right now as other inflationary pressures continue to build. Don't believe it? Take a look at gold prices. They have already risen over 7% year-to-date as the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 1.5%. Meanwhile, the CRB Commodity Index is up 4% year-to-date.

????Something is stirring here, and it doesn't have the whiff of deflation.

????If U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen decides to "rescue" equity markets by reversing the central bank's plans to scale down its bond purchases, the impact could knock down the U.S. Dollar and trigger investors to chase yield, which would drive up inflation hedge assets and likely spark another round of growth-slowing commodity inflation.

????After peaking in 2011-2012, commodity prices cratered in 2013. Because of last year's price declines, period-to-period comparisons are especially sensitive, so even a moderate commodity price increase looks inflationary year over year. This is an optical effect, not yet an economic reality. But policy -- and market panics -- are made in response to how things appear, not how things actually are.

????Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says we are unlikely to see 2011-2012 style actual inflation (which the Fed did not see at the time). But, as people perceive the rise in commodity prices alongside decelerating growth and declining stock prices, there will be speculation that the Fed will again loosen policy to support flagging growth. If Yellen reverses plans to scale down the Fed's bond purchases, a process dubbed, "tapering," your stocks will lift temporarily. But globally the dollar will suffer, causing inflation to rise faster.

????Wage inflation was rising at the margin even before President Obama ordered wage increases. Savings rates are declining toward historic lows as consumption is again displacing savings. During the third quarter of 2013, aggregate household debt growth turned positive for the first time in 18 calendar quarters. After five years of household deleveraging, credit-driven consumption growth is back, and consumer overspending could spike if consumers start to worry about inflation as consumers chase rising prices.

????Inflation is likely to lead to stock market multiple compression, the very opposite of what most Wall Street strategists are calling for. Last year saw both growth and inflation accelerating, leading optimistic investors to assign higher price-to-earnings ratio multiples to stocks and driving prices higher. Now commodity inflation is rising, but U.S. growth is showing signs of slowing. This is not a good place to be, and not an easy one to work out of, and no politician wants to hear that the best policy option is to sit tight and wait it out. This increases the risk of new tinkering by the Fed.

????Thanks to over-optimistic Wall Street projections, investors are not positioned for slower growth and stock price multiple compression. McCullough says commodity prices seem to be front-running Fed policy -- an "inflation trade" that could explode if Yellen reverses the taper. Broad measures of inflation, such as CRB prices, continue to make higher lows as stock prices decline.