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巴西全力避免經濟陷阱

巴西全力避免經濟陷阱

Amy Kaslow 2014-01-17
近些年來,巴西經濟增長迅速,甚至有人評價稱,它用20年的時間走完了美國花了200年才走過的發展道路。但巴西經濟的發展速度遠遠超過了合格技術工人的培養和供應速度。要維持目前的經濟發展勢頭,它必須竭盡全力避開這個陷阱。
????2013年10月,教師和支持者在里約熱內盧集會,呼吁政府改善公共教育和服務。

????巴西眼下陷入了困境。盡管這個國家不僅擁有豐富的自然資源,同時還是全球最具實力的工業生產國之一,但它極度缺乏它的經濟賴以增長的人力資源,即技術工人。

????過去20年間,巴西經濟增長迅速,取得了“美國歷經200年才獲得的成就,”美國駐巴西大使托馬斯?香農贊嘆道。他最近剛剛結束華盛頓駐巴西利亞首席外交官的任期,現擔任國務卿約翰?克里的高級顧問。

????巴西是世界第六大經濟體,是世界農產品(糖、咖啡、柑桔、牛肉、家禽和大豆)和工業制成品(從飛機到疫苗)的頭號出口國,而且有望很快躋身全球最大的石油供應國之列。

????但經濟的迅猛增速已經遠遠超過了為提供高質量、低門檻教育而融資辦學的速度,而學校肩負著為巴西培養合格工人的職責。這種情況導致的結果是:技術和知識工人嚴重缺乏,難以滿足巴西經濟的需要。

????主辦今年世界杯和2016年夏季奧運會的成本不斷攀升,進一步加大了巴西的財政壓力。巴西已經投入巨資興建體育場館和其他公共設施,以容納觀賞國際賽事的游客(巴西政府希望游客數量能夠達到數百萬人次)。這些準備工作預計將耗費超過1萬億美元的公共和私人資金。

????巴西最有影響力的企業和行業協會會長羅布森?布拉加?安德拉德指出,這項體育盛事的準備工作依然在全天候進行,里約熱內盧和其他城市都籠罩在建設工地的灰塵之中。身為巴西能源和自動化集成系統供應商ORTENG Equipamentos e Sistemas公司總裁,安德拉德已經成為一位經驗豐富的人才發掘者。像許多巴西雇主一樣,他時常在國內和外國勞動力市場物色合適的工人。他說:“我們亟需工程師。”

????盡管巴西自稱已經實現了充分就業,起重機和推土設備在全國各地隨處可見,但很多人都掉隊了。據聯合國和世界銀行(World Bank )估計,有超過四分之一的巴西人生活在貧困線附近或貧困線上(婦女,青年和小農戶是最脆弱的群體),不僅喝不上清潔水,就連污水處理和郵件傳遞等基本服務也無法享受。巴西現有的電力網絡、通信電網、道路、軌道交通,機場和海港都嚴重不足,根本滿足不了它當前的需要。

????包括安德拉德在內的巴西雇主希望扭轉這一趨勢。“讓高中輟學生接受職業技能培訓將促使他們努力學習,獲得文憑。” 安德拉德同時還是巴西全國工業培訓服務的負責人,他希望今年能夠讓超過400萬名學員進入就業市場。他列舉了許多因缺乏技術人才而陷于困境部門,比如石油、天然氣、土木建筑和制造業。這些有著千絲萬縷聯系的行業輕輕松松就能消化幾百萬合格工人。

????Brazil is in a bind. It has a wealth of natural resources and is among the most powerful industrial producers in the world, but the nation's economic growth hinges on skilled workers it doesn't have.

????The country has grown fast, achieving in the past 20 years what "it took the United States to accomplish in 200 years," marvels Ambassador Thomas Shannon, who recently finished his tour as Washington's top envoy to Brasilia and now serves as a senior advisor to Secretary of State John Kerry.

????The world's sixth largest economy, Brazil is a top exporter of farm products (sugar, coffee, oranges, beef, poultry, soy) and manufactured goods (from airplanes to vaccines) and it may join the ranks of the world's biggest oil suppliers before long.

????But rapid development has far outpaced financing for quality and accessible schools that can turn out work-ready Brazilians. The result: a dearth of skills and knowledge to satisfy economic demand.

????Intensifying the pressure are the escalating costs of hosting this year's World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. Brazil has made huge investments in stadiums and other public facilities to accommodate the millions of tourists it hopes to attract to the international games. The drawdown on public and private funds combined is expected to exceed $1 trillion.

????Preparation for the two sporting events continues 24/7, with Rio and other cities blanketed in construction project dust, according to Robson Braga de Andrade, who heads Brazil's most influential business and industry association. As president of ORTENG Equipamentos e Sistemas, a Brazilian provider of integrated energy and automation systems, Andrade has become a seasoned talent scout. Like many Brazilian employers, he scours domestic and foreign labor markets for the right workers: "We are in desperate need of engineers," he says.

????Despite Brazil's claims of full employment, and cranes and earthmoving equipment that dot the nation's landscape, many people have been left behind. United Nations and World Bank data estimates that more than a quarter of the country's population lives near or at the poverty line (women, youth, and small farmers are the most vulnerable) with no access to clean water, sewage treatment, or even mail delivery. And Brazil's existing power networks, communications grids, roadways, mass transit, airports, and seaports are all grossly inadequate to meet the country's current needs.

????Andrade and his fellow employers want to reverse this trend. "Enrolling high school dropouts in vocational training," he says, "will prompt them to work for their diploma." Andrade oversees the national industrial training service and hopes to prepare upwards of four million trainees this year. He ticks off the many sectors -- oil, gas, civil construction, manufacturing, all inextricably linked -- stymied by skills shortages that can easily absorb millions of qualified workers.

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