????進入新的一年后，美國股市策略分析師、分析師和評論人士都在預測2014年及以后的市場形勢。華爾街的口徑一如既往地一致。大家在商業(yè)頻道以及投資銀行的“小抄”、“圖表集”和“來年股市”報告中看到的內(nèi)容無一例外地大肆唱好股市，實在讓人感到單調(diào)。

????其實不該是現(xiàn)在這種局面，原因是看跌遠比看漲有吸引力，警示力也遠勝前者，而且得到了數(shù)據(jù)和歷史經(jīng)驗的支持。

????目前，傳統(tǒng)觀點認為大幅上漲的利潤將推動股市在2014年以及隨后的許多年里高歌猛進。這種觀點有悖于近年來的實際情況，但要更堅定地唱好股市，它必不可少。這幾年的故事根本就不是強勁增長的利潤，而是穩(wěn)步上漲的股價。2011年年底以來，標普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）的利潤水平僅上升了11.2%，每年漲幅約為5.5%，表現(xiàn)極為平庸。

????相形之下，標普500指數(shù)在此期間躥升了45%，超過利潤漲幅34個百分點。股價相對于利潤的激增已經(jīng)讓標普500指數(shù)的市盈率從14.5倍升至18.9倍。1928年以來，該指數(shù)的平均市盈率為16倍。也就是說，對股票的熱情已經(jīng)讓投資者從討價還價變得較為大手大腳，這是前方存在危險的信號。

????就算最勇敢的唱多者也不會說股價漲幅將一直遠遠超過盈利，因為利潤最終必須證明股價的合理性。企業(yè)盈利將迅猛增長的觀點是否合理也需要得到驗證。

????讓我們來檢驗一下那些對2014年持樂觀態(tài)度的預期。整體而言，美國股市分析師預計，2014年標普500指數(shù)的每股收益將提高9.6%。在大多數(shù)情況下，各家投行的預期是利潤增幅將接近10%，市盈率將略有下降。這樣，投資者就能在兩方面都得到高額回報。而且，得益于利潤的快速增長，股票的估值將再次回到非常有吸引力的水平。這是典型的華爾街論調(diào)。

????舉例來說，高盛（Goldman Sachs）預計，今后三年標普500指數(shù)的年均漲幅將稍高于7%，而利潤的年化增長率更高，將達到8%。美銀（Bank of America）預測的2014年利潤增速為10.2%，而股價漲幅為8.9%。在這兩家公司對未來的預期中，回報率都很高，估值水平都會下降，這都得益于利潤的強勁增長。與眾不同的是摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）。這家投行為標普500指數(shù)設定的2014年目標點位是2075點，增幅為13%，而它預計的利潤增長速度只有9%。在這種情況下，市盈率會從目前水平進一步上升，延續(xù)2012和2013年的狂熱勢頭。

????利潤實現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長的可能性有多大呢？要注意的一個要點是，企業(yè)盈利已經(jīng)處于歷史最高水平：目前，營業(yè)利潤占銷售額的百分比為9.7%，是20年來的最高點。在這 20年里，標普500指數(shù)一直在隨著這個數(shù)字波動。2006和2007年形勢大好時，這個比例為9%，而目前的營業(yè)利潤/銷售額之比已經(jīng)超過了這個水平。它比20年來7.1%的平均值高了2.6個百分點，這很了不起。請記住一點，建立在創(chuàng)紀錄利潤之上的高市盈率（超過19倍）意味著股票實際上要比表面看起來昂貴得多。

????As the New Year begins, America's equity strategists, analysts, and pundits are making their forecasts for 2014 and beyond. And as usual, Wall Street is speaking with one voice: The talk you hear on the business networks and in the banks' "cheat sheets," "chartbooks," and "equity year ahead" reports is so overwhelmingly, uniformly positive that it's positively boring.

????It shouldn't be, because the opposite case is far more compelling and alarming. It has both math and history on its side.

????This time, the conventional view is that a surge in profits will drive stock prices far higher in 2014, and for many years thereafter. That's something of a departure from the experience of the recent past, but it's absolutely essential to bolstering the argument for equities. In recent years, the story hasn't been robust earnings at all, but steeply rising prices. Since the end of 2011, profits for the S&P 500 (SPX) have risen just 11.2%, or around 5.5% a year, an extremely mediocre performance.

????By contrast, the index has jumped 45% in the same period, outstripping profit gains by 34 points. The explosion in prices relative to earnings has driven the S&P price-to-earnings ratio from 14.5 to 18.9. The average P/E since 1928 stands at 16, which means that investors' enthusiasm for stocks has transformed a bargain into a relative extravagance signaling danger ahead.

????Even the bravest bulls wouldn't argue prices will continue to far outpace the earnings that must eventually justify those prices. Hence the rationale that we're on the cusp of a big upswing in corporate profits.

????Let's examine the predictions that have been welcoming the New Year. Overall, America's equity analysts project that EPS for the S&P will rise 9.6% in 2014. In most cases, the individual banks forecast that earnings will grow at close to double digits, and P/Es will shrink a bit, so that investors will get both solid returns, and stocks will reestablish highly attractive levels of valuation through the elixir of fast-rising profits. It's a Wall Street classic.

????Goldman Sachs (GS), for example, sees the S&P gaining slightly more than 7% annually over the next three years, and profits growing even faster on an annualized basis, at 8%. Bank of America (BAC) forecasts 10.2% earnings growth for 2014, versus an 8.9% increase in stock prices. So both scenarios draw a future of both big returns and cheapening valuations, all courtesy of strong earnings. An exception is J.P. Morgan (JPM). The bank has a 2014 target of 2075 for the S&P, a gain of 13%, with earnings rising only 9%. In that scenario, the current P/E would get even richer in a continuation of the mania of 2012 and 2013.

????What are the odds that profits will swell at a double-digit rate? It's important to note that profits already stand at record levels: Operating profits as a percentage of sales are now 9.7%, the highest level in the 20 years S&P has been tracking that metric. That exceeds the 9% in the flush days of 2006 and 2007, and it's an extraordinary 2.6 points above the two-decade average of 7.1%. Keep in mind that a high PE (at over 19) on top of all-time record profits means that stocks are really far more expensive than they appear.