????10. 《平價醫保法》（Affordable Care Act）的處境將發生明顯改觀。平價醫保交易網站無法登錄的現象將大幅減少，年輕人將開始在這個網站上注冊。奧巴馬的支持率將上升。在11月份的中期選舉中，民主黨不僅將控制參議院，在眾議院的席位甚至也會增加。

????每年都會有一些“意外”事件未能躋身前十，這要么是因為我覺得它們沒有十大“意外”事件重要，要么是因為我不太確信它們是不是“很有可能”出現。

????2014年，這樣的“準意外”事件包括：

????? 綜合考慮智商、極端性、名聲和狡猾程度，泰德?克魯茲將在共和黨2016年總統候選人的爭奪中遙遙領先?？死锼?克里斯蒂以及溫和派人士的支持率將下滑，原因是保守的財政和社會政策越來越有市場。

????? 比特幣的價格在兩年半時間里從25美元增至975美元。比特幣供應量達到2100萬枚，流通中的比特幣有1150萬枚。比特幣不能像黃金那樣發揮保值作用。2014年期間，人們對比特幣的接受程度將急劇下降，原因是投資者意識到比特幣無法在金融交易中充當抵押品，而且它發揮作用的場合主要是那些非法商業勾當，在這種情況下不暴露身份很重要。

????? 奧巴馬總統頂住了古巴流亡人士的反對，開始和古巴政府就啟動貿易和建立外交關系進行磋商。美國方面將提議減少對古巴的制裁，并以債券形式為古巴提供有限的財政援助。人們很快就開始把這些債券稱為“卡斯特羅可轉債”。

????? 希拉里?克林頓決定不參加2016年總統大選。她表示，自己在克林頓基金會的各項非營利活動中的工作很重要而且尚未結束。她明確指出，自己做出這樣的決定并不是出于健康方面的考慮。民主黨內對總統候選人的爭奪將陷入一片混亂。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie???

????10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished, and younger people begin signing up. Obama's approval rating rises, and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.

????Every year there are always a few surprises that do not make the Top 10 either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are "probable."

????Also rans:

????? Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity, and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Chris Christie and the moderates fade in popularity as momentum builds for fiscal and social conservative policies.

????? In 2? years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold's position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin's acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.

????? Overcoming objections from the Cuban exile community, President Obama opens discussions on initiating trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba. A reduction in sanctions is proposed, as well as limited financial support in the form of bonds, quickly dubbed as "Castro convertibles."

????? Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016. She says her work with various Clinton non-for-profit initiatives is important and unfinished. Specifically, she explains that her health was not an issue in her decision. The Democratic race for the top seat becomes chaotic.