????6. 互聯網并購將增多：隨著全球化步伐的加快以及消費者加速從固定網絡轉向移動網絡，Facebook和Twitter等互聯網巨擘必須得更加靈活和貪婪，才能跟上行業發展的步伐。它們還得進一步開發本公司已經羽翼豐滿的“智能廣告網絡”，同時增強自身移動業務的能力。我相信，這將使移動互聯網和廣告技術領域的并購數量在2014年大幅上升。我預計，網絡股將在2014年出現適度增長，原因是大型互聯網企業基礎堅實，可以進行更多的收購。移動社交網絡的出現將繼續讓消費者的認同度發生分化，特別是在十幾歲和二十幾歲這兩個年齡組。舉例來說，Snapchat、Vine、Nextdoor和Instagram等社交網絡已經暴露出了Facebook和Twitter的弱點，特別是在面對年輕的移動設備用戶的時候。移動設備構建的社交網絡在便攜性方面遠遠超過臺式機，這種情況讓所有大型社交網絡公司更容易受到沖擊。我為什么認為并購對它們很重要？這就是原因之一。它們必須保持對移動社交網絡領域的控制。如果主要依靠內生性增長策略，這些公司就無法做到這一點。2014年，專家們回顧Facebook對Instagram的收購時會認為這是一項天才之舉，因為它將進一步鼓勵其他大型社交網絡公司采取外生性增長策略。

????7. 比特幣將大行其道：我認為，比特幣顯然將繼續增長，但也將出現極端的波動性。Overstock.com等零售商會在更多的經營網點使用比特幣。不過，銀行業和政府仍將存在一定分歧。這些機構仍將無法正確認識到比特幣帶來的真正機遇和威脅。比特幣有可能讓經濟和政治脫鉤。

????8. 2014年納斯達克指數將再次上漲：納斯達克指數年底可能收于4500點，但也可能更接近5000點，這是納斯達克指數在2000年創下的神奇紀錄。但同時，投資者們也會因此在自己的博客里大談“泡沫”問題。我認為，關于泡沫的探討會讓投資者著迷，他們會不由自主地把2014年和1999年進行比較；他們還會注意到，2014年正是科技行業首次進入繁榮期15周年。以科技股為主的納斯達克市場雖然有可能出現不安和波動，但我認為它的整體趨勢將繼續向上。個人投資者最終會重返這個市場，從中受益。（財富中文網）

作者簡介

????本文作者是硅谷風投公司Norwest Venture Partners合伙人。他在哈佛商學院獲得了工商管理碩士學位，在斯坦福大學獲得了管理科學和工程（工業工程）理學學士學位。

????譯者：Charlie

????6. Internet M&A deals will rise: As a result of an accelerated trend toward globalization and shifts from web to mobile consumption, most Internet giants including Facebook and Twitter (TWTR) will have to become much more agile and acquisitive to keep pace. They will also need to further develop their own full-fledged "smart ad network" and enhance mobile capabilities. I believe this will result in a spike in more mobile and adtech M&A in 2014. I predict Internet stocks will be up reasonably high in 2014, giving the Internet giants' solid ground from which to make more acquisitions. The emergence of mobile social networks will continue to fragment mind share, especially in the teen and tween demographic. For example, Snapchat, Vine, Nextdoor, and Instagram are examples of mobile social networks that have shown Facebook's and Twitter's vulnerability, especially when it comes to young mobile users. The fact that the social graph is much more "transportable" on the mobile device than on the PC makes all social incumbents more vulnerable. This is one reason why I think M&A is important for them; they must maintain control of the social mobile world, and they cannot do this relying largely on an organic growth strategy. In 2014, the experts will look back at Instagram's acquisition by Facebook as a genius move that will further embolden other large social properties to step up inorganic growth strategies.

????7. Bitcoin will thrive: I think it's evident that Bitcoin will continue to rise, but will also show extreme volatility. Adoption by outlets such as Overstock.com and other retailers will continue to grow. However, the banking industry and governments will remain somewhat split. These institutions will continue to misunderstand the real opportunities and threats this crypto currency provides. Bitcoin has the opportunity to decouple the economic world from the political world.

????8. NASDAQ Index will rise again in 2014: The NASDAQ index could end the year at 4,500, but may even get close to the magical 5,000 mark set at the peak of 2000. This will create a massive amount of chatter in the investor blogosphere around talks of a "Bubble." I predict that investors will get captivated by the bubble chatter and will obsessively compare 2014 with 1999 and note that this is the 15th year anniversary of the first tech boom. While there may be anxiety and volatility in the tech-heavy NASDAQ, I think the overall upward trend should continue. The retail investor will finally come back to the market and benefit.

About the Author

????Sergio Monsalve is a partner at Norwest Venture Partners. He holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a bachelor of science degree in management sciences and engineering (industrial engineering) from Stanford University.