????美國(guó)銀行認(rèn)為未來(lái)比特幣將一家獨(dú)大，但安托諾坡羅斯的看法與之相左。他認(rèn)為在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)發(fā)生不可避免的暴跌之后，至少會(huì)有幾種貨幣都有存活的空間。他說(shuō)，那些無(wú)法被歸入比特幣范疇、但設(shè)法保持了安全性，同時(shí)擁有可靠用戶(hù)基礎(chǔ)的貨幣將會(huì)存活下來(lái)。按照安托諾坡羅斯的預(yù)測(cè)，最終比特幣將擁有加密數(shù)字貨幣市值的80%-85%，而剩余價(jià)值將由五到六種替代幣瓜分。這些幸存的替代幣可能會(huì)在一個(gè)不斷演變的加密數(shù)字幣生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中服務(wù)于幾個(gè)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)，同時(shí)它們都將為那些覺(jué)得比特幣太貴的用戶(hù)提供“泄壓閥”——考慮到比特幣嚴(yán)格受控的增長(zhǎng)率和最終增長(zhǎng)極限，它的天價(jià)基本上不可避免。

????迄今為止，有助于替代幣用戶(hù)買(mǎi)入的特點(diǎn)中有一點(diǎn)尤為重要：開(kāi)發(fā)者誠(chéng)實(shí)、透明、相對(duì)無(wú)私的行為方式。Lite幣的主要開(kāi)發(fā)者查理?李花了很大力氣確保數(shù)字加密貨幣支持者在Lite幣推出時(shí)就得知消息并能夠買(mǎi)入，因?yàn)槿魏我环N數(shù)字加密貨幣在這種時(shí)候都是最容易挖掘的。他說(shuō)：“正式推出（2011年10月）一周前我就公布了源代碼，這樣大家就可以做好（挖掘）準(zhǔn)備工作了。”在某種程度上，也正是由于這份保持公平透明的努力，Lite幣現(xiàn)在是僅次于比特幣的第二大數(shù)字加密貨幣。同樣地，另一個(gè)開(kāi)發(fā)者桑尼?金也是在其Peer幣2012年8月可正式挖掘那天的九天前就公布了源代碼。結(jié)果Peer幣現(xiàn)在成了排名第三位的數(shù)字加密貨幣。

????但是，在2013年的替代幣爆發(fā)中，李表示“我沒(méi)看到其中有哪種幣推出時(shí)有同樣的透明度。”這確實(shí)不是一幫壞蛋想通過(guò)偽造數(shù)字加密貨幣掙快錢(qián)那么簡(jiǎn)單。通常，這種發(fā)財(cái)之道是通過(guò)所謂的“提前挖掘”來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)的，即某個(gè)貨幣的創(chuàng)始人在向公眾正式公布挖掘代碼前自己先囤積一大筆貨幣。隨后，他們就會(huì)大搞市場(chǎng)推廣。有傳言稱(chēng)，這種手法就包括定期向知名發(fā)言人塞錢(qián)，并通過(guò)行賄讓自己的貨幣在交易所掛牌，這樣一來(lái)就能讓這種貨幣披上合法的外衣。然后，當(dāng)已被大肆炒作的假幣一推出，數(shù)字加密貨幣追捧者的大舉買(mǎi)入就會(huì)讓它的價(jià)格迅速躥升，此時(shí)這位不擇手段的創(chuàng)始人就能大筆出貨了。安托諾坡羅斯說(shuō)：“用大家最熟悉的說(shuō)法就是，超過(guò)80%的替代幣玩的都是拉高出貨的把戲。”

????相比之下 ，查理?李就表示自己并沒(méi)有從創(chuàng)造Lite幣中大發(fā)橫財(cái)。他說(shuō)：“我賺了點(diǎn)錢(qián)，當(dāng)然和大家一樣我也希望能多賺點(diǎn)。”不過(guò)從行業(yè)地位和影響力來(lái)說(shuō) ，他卻獲益良多，因?yàn)樗蚅ite幣已經(jīng)充分證明，替代幣在強(qiáng)化整個(gè)數(shù)字加密貨幣生態(tài)系統(tǒng)上大有可為。李表示：“Lite幣的開(kāi)發(fā)團(tuán)隊(duì)與比特幣的開(kāi)發(fā)團(tuán)隊(duì)現(xiàn)在正在緊密合作。最新推出的比特幣含有大量暫時(shí)未經(jīng)Lite幣測(cè)試的代碼，因?yàn)槲覀冞@個(gè)市場(chǎng)比較小，要進(jìn)行改變也更靈活。”??

????But unlike Bank of America, which predicts a future in which Bitcoin stands alone, Antonopoulos sees space for at least a few alternatives after the inevitable shakeout. Those whose features cannot be incorporated into bitcoin, which manage to remain secure, and which build a robust user base will survive, he says. At the end of the process, Antonopoulos foresees Bitcoin holding between 80 and 85% of all cryptocurrency capitalization, with the remaining value divided between as few as five or six altcoins. The surviving altcoins may serve different niches within an evolved cryptocoin ecosystem, and all will offer a 'release valve' for users who feel that Bitcoin is too expensive – a near inevitability, given Bitcoin's strictly controlled growth rate and eventual growth cap.

????So far, one feature has been more important than any other in helping any altcoin build user buy-in: honest, transparent, and relatively selfless behavior by its developers. Litecoin lead developer Charlie Lee made great efforts to ensure cryptocurrency supporters' awareness and access at Litecoin's launch, when any cryptocurrency is easiest to mine. "I released the source code a week before the launch [in October of 2011], so people could prepare [to mine]." In part thanks to this push for fairness and openness, litecoin is now the second-biggest cryptocurrency after bitcoin. Creator Sunny King similarly released the sourcecode for his peercoin nine days before mining opened in August of 2012. Peercoin is currently the third-ranked cryptocurrency.

????In the 2013 altcoin explosion, though, Lee says "I haven't seen any other coin roll out with the same level of transparency." It certainly hasn't been the M.O. of the flood of bad actors looking to make a quick buck by starting bogus cryptocurrencies. This is usually accomplished through what's known as a "premine," in which the founders of a currency generate a large chunk of currency for themselves before releasing the mining code to the public. Those founders will then undertake a big marketing push, including, it is rumored, the occasional payoff to a prominent spokesman and bribes in exchange for listing on cryptocoin trading exchanges, which can confer a sheen of legitimacy. Then, when the hyped, bogus coin is released, adoption by cryptocoin enthusiasts can give its value a brief bump, and unscrupulous founders can unload their premined loot. "In excess of 80% of altcoins are pump-and-dump schemes in the most traditional sense of the term," says Antonopoulos.

????By contrast, Charlie Lee claims he hasn't disproportionately benefitted from the creation of litecoin. "I have some, I wish I had more, like everyone else." Lee has benefitted, though, in terms of community stature and influence, as he and litecoin have come to exemplify the role of altcoins in strengthening the overall cryptocoin ecosystem. "The litecoin development team works pretty closely with the bitcoin dev team. The latest bitcoin release contained a lot of code that had been tested out in litecoin for a while, because we're a slightly smaller market and we're more nimble to make changes."?