????美聯儲（the Federal Reserve）削減購債規模的影響也許遠沒有我們預計的那么糟糕。

????一年多以來，投資者一直在為美聯儲著手終止經濟刺激計劃做著準備。周三，美聯儲最終宣布小幅削減購債規模，那么股市到底下跌了多少呢？

????跌幅為零。

????相反，股指大幅上漲了近300點，債券市場則略有下跌。這是怎么回事？

????實際情況表明，削減購債規模對股票和債券市場（甚至整體經濟）而言并沒有我們認為的那么重要。

????對于美聯儲壓縮購債計劃，人們主要擔心它會導致利率上升。但無論怎樣，利率注定要上升。經濟好轉時利率水平就會提高。現在經濟正在改善，所以利率也在上漲。10年期美國國債收益率已從年初的2%左右逼近3%。目前尚不清楚這個上漲和削減購債規模有多大關系。

????更重要的是，利率上升似乎并未導致經濟放緩。上個月的就業數據再次好于預期，目前的失業率已經下降到7%，創下了五年來的新低。由此可見，利率上升并沒有延緩經濟發展。

????到目前為止，削減購債的幅度很小。美聯儲僅僅只是把購債的規模壓縮了100億美元。它意味著美聯儲購買債券的規模比我們的預期少了11%。當然，美聯儲很可能進一步減少購債數額。但即便如此，這對美聯儲所持債券規模產生明顯影響還需要很長一段時間，預計這個數字本周會超過4萬億美元。

????人們一直在探討美聯儲購債計劃中最重要的是什么？是存量，還是流動性？或者說，是美聯儲持有的債券規模，還是美聯儲正在購買的債券數額？最近，經濟學家得出結論，流動性比我們想象的更重要，但二者之間的差距也許沒那么大。

????接下來讓我們看看股市的表現。長期以來，一些策略分析師一直認為，伯南克是股市持續上漲，或者至少上漲到目前水平的唯一原因。如果真是這樣，那么美聯儲宣布減少注資規模應該會造成股市下跌，而不是上漲。

????至少，它表明股市的復蘇（乃至整體經濟的復蘇）和美聯儲的關系并沒我們想象的那么密切。相反，股市上行似乎是得益于經濟形勢的好轉，所以說到底，經濟復蘇才是關鍵因素。與此相比，美聯儲是否削減購債規模并不是那么重要。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Lina??

????The Federal Reserve's taper may turn out to be a lot less terrible than we thought.

????For more than a year, investors have been bracing for the beginning of the end of the Fed's stimulus program. So on Wednesday when the Fed finally announced it would pull back a little, how far did stocks fall?

????They didn't.

????Instead, they rose, a lot, by nearly 300 points. Bonds were down slightly. What gives?

????The taper, it turns out, for the stock and bond market -- and perhaps even the economy altogether -- matters a lot less than we thought.

????One of the main concerns about the Fed pulling back on its bond buying program is that it would cause interest rates to rise. But that was bound to happen anyway. Interest rates tend to rise when the economy improves. And the economy has been improving. So interest rates are up. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to just under 3% from around 2% at the beginning of the year. It's not clear how much that has to do with the taper.

????Even more important, that rise in interest rates doesn't seem to be slowing the economy. Last month's jobs report was once again better than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 7%, the lowest it has been in five years. So clearly higher interest rates are not spooking the economy.

????And the taper, at least so far, is tiny. The Fed is only reducing its bond buying program by $10 billion. That means the Fed will be buying 11% fewer bonds than we thought. Of course, the Fed is likely to pull back further. But even if they do, it will be a long time before that makes a big dent in the Fed's total bond holding, which is expected to cross $4 trillion this week.

????There has been a debate over what matters more in the Fed's bond buying program: the stock or the flow -- how much bonds the Fed has, or how much it is buying. Recently, economists have come to the conclusion that the flow matters more than we thought. But perhaps not that much more.

????And then there's stocks. Some strategists have long contended that the only reason the market has been going up, or at least going up as much as it has, is because been Ben Bernanke. If that was true, then the announcement that the Fed will be pumping a little less money into the market should have made stocks drop, not rise.

????What this says, at the very least, is that the recovery in the market, and perhaps the economy as a whole, has less to do with the Fed than we thought. Instead, it appears that the market is rising because the economy is improving, and in the end that's what matters. Compared to that, whether the Fed tapers or not just isn't nearly as important.