????舉例來說，埃及經(jīng)濟并沒有因為軍方發(fā)動政變、推翻政府而一蹶不振；相反，2011年胡斯尼?穆巴拉克下臺后留下的混亂局勢和政治真空似乎因為政變而得到了治理和填充。與此同時，今年夏天出現(xiàn)的所謂“沙拉革命”并每個有給巴西的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)劃造成明顯的影響。7月份抗議活動偃旗息鼓后，巴西政府很快就向?qū)κ找媛嗜琊囁瓶实男屡d市場投資者發(fā)行了35億美元的債券，發(fā)債過程非常順利。

????埃及和巴西的游行示威歸于平靜似乎讓新興市場投資者產(chǎn)生了“這里很安全”的錯覺。實際上，埃及和巴西的問題都沒有得到解決，反對派也沒有解體。情況自然而然就會改觀的想法很有吸引力，但埃及和巴西爆發(fā)抗議活動的根源在于收入不均和政治腐敗，而且這兩個棘手的問題正變得越發(fā)嚴重。許多新興市場都存在這樣的問題，包括泰國和烏克蘭。

????上周一，花旗銀行（Citibank）分析師向客戶提供的報告指出：“過去兩年中，印度、俄羅斯、巴西、埃及、土耳其和印尼都出現(xiàn)了幾十年來規(guī)模最大的政治抗議活動。游行示威往往此起彼伏，大選之前會更為頻繁，而明年上述多個國家都將進行選舉。”

????除非找到一些辦法來解決抗議活動背后的核心問題，否則游行示威將接二連三地出現(xiàn)，直到矛盾徹底激化。多年來，烏克蘭和泰國一直在試圖解決這些問題，但民眾似乎再也沒有耐心繼續(xù)忍受下去。對泰國來說，大選意味著示威活動將再延續(xù)幾個星期。烏克蘭民眾似乎也決心要迫使政府進行大選。為了取代軍政府，埃及已經(jīng)制定了選舉計劃，但這必將引發(fā)新的沖突。巴西的大選定在明年10月份，這會讓明年夏天的局勢備受關(guān)注。

????如果說新興市場有什么不同的話，那就是它們的政局看來處于空前的不穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????For example, in Egypt, the toppling of the government in a military coup didn't send the Egyptian economy into a tailspin; indeed, it seemed to have brought order to what was a chaotic political vacuum following the toppling of Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the so-called "Salad Revolution" this summer failed to disrupt the nation's economic development plans in any significant way. Shortly after the protests calmed down in July, Brazil issued $3.5 billion worth of bonds to a pack of yield-hungry EM investors without a hitch.

????The lull in protests in Egypt and Brazil seem to be giving EM investors a false sense of security. Indeed nothing was resolved in either country, and opposition groups remain organized. It is tempting to assume that things will just work themselves out, but the root of both protests revolve around two growing and troublesome issues -- income inequality and political corruption -- both of which plague a number of EM countries, including Thailand and Ukraine.

????"Over the past two years, India, Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Turkey, and Indonesia have all seen their largest political protests in decades," Citibank analysts wrote in a note to their clients Monday. "Protests often beget protests, and they become more common in the run-up to elections, which in many of these countries will occur over the next year."

????Unless there is some resolution of the core issues behind a revolt, they will simply resurface again and again until things explode. Ukraine and Thailand have been wrestling with their issues for years, and it seems that the people have finally had it. New elections in Thailand will mean weeks of further protests. Meanwhile, it seems that the Ukrainian people are determined to force an election. Elections due in Egypt to replace the military government will surely sprout new revolts there while elections in Brazil next October should make for an interesting summer.

????If anything, the EM looks more politically unstable than ever.