????上周末，泰國(guó)和烏克蘭都出現(xiàn)了大規(guī)模示威游行。新興市場(chǎng)投資者不能對(duì)此掉以輕心。盡管這兩個(gè)國(guó)家的抗議活動(dòng)表面上沒有什么聯(lián)系，但引發(fā)抗議的都是多年來一直未能得到解決的深層次政治問題。如果泰國(guó)或?yàn)蹩颂m的矛盾真的激化，隨之出現(xiàn)的不利影響可能讓鄰國(guó)蒙受巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，也會(huì)再次給投資者帶來沉重的打擊。

????今年，新興市場(chǎng)特別不穩(wěn)定。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入停滯，巴西和埃及政局動(dòng)蕩。年初，由于擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Fed）可能壓縮債券購買規(guī)模，MSCI新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)（MSCI Emerging Market Index）今年夏天大幅下跌。直到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)出人意料地決定維持債券購買規(guī)模不變，這個(gè)指數(shù)才迅速反彈。雖然有美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)帶來的反彈，MSCI新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)今年仍然下跌了5.3%。在此期間，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）卻一路高歌猛進(jìn)，漲幅高達(dá)27%。

????不過，對(duì)收益率的追求仍然會(huì)引領(lǐng)投資者重返新興市場(chǎng)，美國(guó)和歐洲投資者已經(jīng)為此投入了數(shù)十億美元資金。融資和金融信息平臺(tái)Dealogic提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份以來，阿根廷Merval指數(shù)上漲了近70%；6-11月期間，新興市場(chǎng)公司的債券發(fā)行規(guī)模高達(dá)710億美元。顯然，新興市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)復(fù)蘇——或者說，有人讓投資者相信新興市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)復(fù)蘇。

????目前，青睞新興市場(chǎng)的投資者正在根據(jù)烏克蘭和泰國(guó)的局勢(shì)發(fā)展來決定自己在東歐和東南亞市場(chǎng)的前進(jìn)方向。抗議活動(dòng)迅速消耗了這兩個(gè)國(guó)家的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)能量，還有可能再次給新興市場(chǎng)投資者帶來出其不意的打擊。

????在泰國(guó)，。近十年來，政府最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的腐敗一直在影響泰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展前景。民眾已經(jīng)身心俱疲。經(jīng)過幾周的抗議示威，泰國(guó)總理英拉在上周末宣布解散議會(huì)，進(jìn)行大選。但由于英拉拒絕在選舉前下臺(tái)，曼谷的沖突仍在繼續(xù)。

????在烏克蘭，親俄羅斯派和親歐盟派的多年政治內(nèi)斗導(dǎo)致這個(gè)國(guó)家在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面毫無建樹。俄羅斯希望繼續(xù)控制烏克蘭。在俄方敦促下，烏克蘭政府拒絕和歐盟簽訂貿(mào)易協(xié)議，上周末的抗議活動(dòng)隨之升級(jí)。烏克蘭的熱血青年希望進(jìn)行大選，以便清除腐敗的政府官員，因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為后者把俄羅斯的利益置于烏克蘭民眾的利益之上。上周二夜間，隨著抗議者占領(lǐng)基輔市中心的廣場(chǎng)，沖突變得更為激烈。

????然而，兩國(guó)令人不安的局勢(shì)似乎沒有對(duì)投資者產(chǎn)生影響。實(shí)際上，MSCI新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)上周一反而出現(xiàn)了上漲。俄羅斯規(guī)模最大的純交易所交易基金（ETF）The Market Vectors Russia Index ETF當(dāng)天上揚(yáng)了0.75%，此前的一個(gè)周末烏克蘭示威者在基輔市中心推倒列寧像的時(shí)間并沒有產(chǎn)生不利影響。泰國(guó)的SET指數(shù)周一也高收0.43%。

????指數(shù)上升似乎表明一切安好，但情況顯然并非如此。看來，有些投資者已經(jīng)對(duì)抗議示威產(chǎn)生了“審美疲勞”，因而對(duì)烏克蘭和泰國(guó)的沖突活動(dòng)視而不見。今年，許多新興市場(chǎng)都出現(xiàn)了“民眾力量”的崛起，但其中有許多都無果而終，這就是投資者對(duì)此類事件產(chǎn)生疲勞感的源頭。看起來，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為泰國(guó)和烏克蘭的情況也會(huì)是這樣。

????The eruption of popular protests in Thailand and Ukraine over the weekend shouldn't be taken so lightly by emerging markets investors. The two seemingly unrelated disturbances both revolve around deep-seated and unresolved political issues, which have been simmering for years. Should either of them actually blow, the resulting toxic fallout could have dire economic consequences for their neighbors and deliver yet another pelting to investors.

????The emerging markets have been particularly volatile this year with growth stalling in China and political upheavals disrupting Brazil and Egypt. Worries that the U.S. was set to curb its bond buying program earlier this year sent the MSCI Emerging Market Index plummeting in the summer, only to rebound quickly thereafter when the Federal Reserve unexpectedly decided to keep the program running at full blast. Despite the pullback by the Fed, the MSCI is still down 5.3% on the year. That compares with the S&P 500 (SPX), which has shot up a bubbly 27% during the same time period.

????But the quest for yield has led investors back into the emerging markets, with billions of dollars pouring in from investors in the U.S. and Europe. Argentina's Merval stock market has jumped nearly 70% since July, for example, while EM companies have sold a whopping $71 billion worth in bonds from June to November, according to Dealogic. Clearly, EM is back -- or that is what investors have been led to believe.

????Take what is going on currently in the Ukraine and Thailand, emerging market darlings for their respective orbits in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. Protests in both countries have quickly consumed the political and economic hearts of both countries and threaten to throw EM investors yet another curve ball.

????In Thailand, corruption at the highest levels of power has stunted the peaceful nation's economic growth prospects for nearly a decade. The people have grown tired of it and this weekend, after weeks of protests, were able to push the Prime Minister to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. Disruption continues in Bangkok as the Prime Minister has refused to step down before the elections.

????In Ukraine, years of political infighting between those loyal to their former Russian overlords and those who want to forge closer ties with the European Union has left the country in economic limbo. But protests there went into overdrive this weekend after the government scrapped a trade agreement with the European Union at the behest of Russia, who wants Ukraine to remain in their orbit. Ukrainian patriots want new elections so that they can purge their corrupt government of officials who they believe put the interests of Moscow over that of the Ukrainian people. Fighting there intensified Tuesday night as protestors occupied the central square in Kiev.

????But investors seemed to shrug off these two worrisome developments, indeed, the MSCI EM index actually strengthened on Monday. The Market Vectors Russia index (RSX), the largest dedicated Russian ETF, was up 0.75% on Monday, even though Ukrainian protesters tore down a statue of Lenin in central Kiev over the weekend. Thailand's SET stock index also gained on Monday, up 0.43%.

????The stronger numbers would seem to suggest that all is well, even though that is clearly not the case. It appears that some investors have developed "protest fatigue" and are choosing to simply ignore the conflagrations in Ukraine and Thailand. The fatigue emanates from the deluge of "people power" uprisings in a number of emerging markets this year, many of which simply fizzled out. Apparently, the markets believe that will be the case in these two incidents as well.