中移動入選基金經理推薦的20大金股
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紐約銀行梅隆公司 克里斯?戴維斯思慮周密而且傾向于規(guī)避風險。他管理著規(guī)模為210億美元的戴維斯紐約風險投資基金（Davis New York Venture Fund，交易代碼：NYVTX），15年來的年均回報率為6%，而標普500指數(shù)的回報率為4.8%。在穩(wěn)妥和大膽之間，他總是更傾向于前者。戴維斯選擇的是紐約銀行梅隆公司（Bank of New York Mellon）。這是一家托管銀行，為共同基金等機構投資者保管資產，同時為股票和債券發(fā)行人收取或支付股息或債券利息。它的規(guī)模經濟優(yōu)勢非常明顯——托管資產達26萬億美元——其他銀行幾乎不可能進入這個市場。紐約銀行梅隆公司的2014年預期市盈率為13倍，股息收益率為1.8%，2013年盈利預計將增長12%。戴維斯認為，在某種情況下這家銀行的利潤增速還有希望加快。他說：“我們預計今后的利率將大幅度上升?！睋?jù)戴維斯估算，由于托管資產數(shù)額巨大，利率每上升2個百分點，紐約銀行梅隆公司的每股收益就會提高近50%。他指出：“這家銀行的業(yè)務非常、非常乏味……但我確實認為它的盈利增長動力不會減弱。我就喜歡這樣的風險/回報情況?！?--J.B. |
Bank of New York Mellon Chris Davis is thoughtful and risk-averse -- his $21 billion Davis New York Venture Fund(NYVTX) has averaged 6% annual returns over the past 15 years, vs. 4.8% for the S&P 500 -- and he'll always favor the reliable over the audacious. Davis's choice: Bank of New York Mellon. A "custody" bank, it holds assets for institutional investors, such as mutual funds, and collects and distributes dividends and coupon payments for issuers of stocks and bonds. The economies of scale are so vast -- with $26 trillion in custody -- that it would be nearly impossible for a newcomer to make inroads into its market. BNY Mellon trades at 13 times projected 2014 earnings, pays a 1.8% dividend yield, and is projected to have 12% earnings growth in 2013. He also sees a scenario in which earnings could accelerate. "We expect interest rates to be significantly higher in the future," says Davis, who asserts that a two-percentage-point increase in interest rates could increase BNY Mellon's earnings per share by nearly 50%, given its massive assets in custody. "It's a boring, boring business ... but I don't really see the scenarios where the earnings power is diminished," Davis says. "That's the sort of risk/reward that I like." --J.B. |
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摩根士丹利 10年來，Alger Spectra基金的年回報率為12.3%，好于99%的大盤成長型基金。9年來一直擔任基金經理的帕特里克?凱利說，他要找的是正在發(fā)生“有利而有活力的變化”進而能夠提高利潤和股價的公司。就摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）而言，凱利指出，這樣的變化來自兩方面。首先是收入增長和削減成本，該公司正在提升理財業(yè)務的利潤率——預計將從2009年的9%提高到2015年的20%。其次，摩根士丹利正在壓縮盈利能力較弱的固定收益業(yè)務，預計相關資產的規(guī)模將從2011年的3900億美元降至2016年的1800億美元，由此釋放的資金可以返還給股東。因此，凱利預計，到2015年理財業(yè)務將占該公司稅前利潤的50%，遠高于2010年的18%。他指出，當市場注意到這一點，摩根士丹利的股東就會受益，原因是該公司理財業(yè)務的估值倍數(shù)高于它傳統(tǒng)的機構業(yè)務。摩根士丹利的股價已從2013年初的19美元上漲到目前的30美元左右，但盈利增長得更快，從而保持著12倍的動態(tài)市盈率。--S.M. |
Morgan Stanley Patrick Kelly For the past decade, Alger Spectra (SPECX) has racked up returns of 12.3% a year, better than 99% of large-cap growth funds. Patrick Kelly, who has led the fund for nine years, says he looks for companies undergoing "positive dynamic change" that can propel earnings and stock prices. In the case of Morgan Stanley, Kelly says, the change has two components. First, through revenue growth and cost cutting, the company is boosting the margins of its wealth management division -- from 9% in 2009 to a projected 20% in 2015. Second, it's shrinking its less profitable fixed-income business, reducing the assets associated with it from $390 billion in 2011 to a projected $180 billion in 2016, freeing capital that can be returned to shareholders. As a result, he expects that wealth management will account for 50% of Morgan Stanley's pretax income by 2015, up from 18% in 2010. When the market takes note, Kelly says, shareholders will benefit because wealth management trades at a higher multiple than does Morgan Stanley's traditional institutional business. The stock has already surged from $19 at the start of 2013 to around $30 now, but earnings have advanced even faster, preserving the forward P/E at 12. --S.M. |
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西聯(lián) Artisan中型價值股基金（Artisan Mid Cap Value，交易代碼：ARTQX）10年來的平均回報率為12.7%，高于標普中盤股400指數(shù)的10.5%，其中盡是表現(xiàn)欠佳的個股。果然，聯(lián)席經理詹姆斯?基弗（2001年加入）就看好一只走勢不好的股票：西聯(lián)（Western Union）。3個月來該公司股價下跌了8.5%，中盤股卻出現(xiàn)了8.8%的漲幅。西聯(lián)警告稱，2014年利潤水平可能和今年持平，導致一些投資者拋售它的股票套現(xiàn)?；フJ為這是一種目光短淺的行為。全球化帶來了更多的移民勞動力，他們經常要供養(yǎng)還沒有移民的家人，從而提升了電匯需求。不過，電匯增多也讓防范洗錢等非法活動的監(jiān)管部門加強了審查。這就意味著短期內合規(guī)成本將上升?；タ吹搅撕玫囊幻?。西聯(lián)是行業(yè)領軍者，和規(guī)模較小的競爭對手相比能更好地消化這些成本。此外，西聯(lián)已決定下調費率，這讓投資者望而卻步，但基弗認為這是該公司發(fā)動價格戰(zhàn)的第一槍，目的是給競爭對手施加更大的壓力。他說：“西聯(lián)以往的市盈率都在15倍以上，目前市盈率則為12倍。這家公司的股息收益率為2.9%。對我來說，這能帶來極大價值。” |
Western Union James Kieffer Underdogs abound at Artisan Mid Cap Value (ARTQX), which has averaged 12.7% returns for a decade, vs. 10.5% for the S&P Midcap 400 Index. Sure enough, co-manager James Kieffer (at the fund since 2001) endorses a straggler: Western Union, whose shares have slid 8.5% over the past three months even as midcaps jumped 8.8%. The company warned of flat 2014 earnings, prompting some investors to bail out. Kieffer thinks that's shortsighted. Globalization has led to greater labor migration, which has increased demand for wire transfers, since workers often support families back home. But the rise in transfers has also brought increased scrutiny by regulators looking for money laundering or other illegal activity. That means higher short-term compliance costs. Kieffer sees a silver lining. As the industry leader, Western Union is positioned to absorb those costs better than smaller rivals. In addition, he views Western Union's decision to cut fees, which alienated investors, as the first volley in a price war to tighten the screws on competitors. "It's a stock trading at 12 times earnings that historically had traded in the high teens," he says. "They're also paying you a 2.9% dividend yield. To me, that's a lot of bang for your buck." --J.B. |
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MarketAxess 幾年前，股市擺脫了一些華爾街券商的主導，進入了電子市場時代。托馬斯?奧格納認為債券市場也將出現(xiàn)同樣的情況。這對MarketAxess Holdings來說意味著機遇，因為它是一個債券電子交易平臺。雖然成本較低，但這樣的平臺在開拓債市方面取得的進展不如股市，部分原因是債券交易不像股票那么頻繁。不過，奧格納認為情況正在發(fā)生改變。他的富國銀行優(yōu)勢成長基金（Wells Fargo Advantage Growth，交易代碼：SGROX）的規(guī)模為124億美元，5年來的年均回報率為29.2%，高于標普500指數(shù)的21.5%。面對更高的資本金要求和對自營交易更嚴格的監(jiān)管，大型華爾街公司已經無法大量持有、交易債券。同時，奧格納指出，利率下降也讓客戶對利率的敏感度高于以往。MarketAxess是這個領域的領跑者，成交量從2011年以來提高了50%。這公司的股價并不低，2014年預期市盈率為32倍，但奧格納認為這樣的預測過于保守，他說：“他們提高盈利的能力遠遠超過分析師目前所認定的水平?！?--J.B. 譯者：Charlie |
MarketAxess It happened years ago for stocks, and Thomas Ognar believes it's going to happen for bonds: a shift from dominance by a handful of Wall Street broker-dealers to electronic marketplaces. That means opportunity for MarketAxess Holdings, an electronic trading system for bonds. Despite lower costs, such platforms have made less headway with bonds than with stocks, in part because bonds are traded less frequently than stocks. But Ognar, whose $12.4 billion fund (SGROX) has a five-year average annual return of 29.2%, vs. 21.5% for the S&P, thinks that's changing. Faced with tougher capital requirements and tighter regulations on proprietary trading, big Wall Street firms can no longer afford to maintain large inventories in the bonds for which they serve as dealers. Meanwhile, Ognar notes, reduced interest rates have made clients more price-sensitive than in the past. Trading volumes for MarketAxess, the leader in its niche, have increased 50% since 2011. The stock isn't cheap, trading at 32 times estimated 2014 earnings, but Ognar thinks those projections are too conservative: "The trajectory of their ability to grow earnings is a lot higher than what analysts are looking for." --J.B. |
