中移動入選基金經理推薦的20大金股
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Ezion Holdings 大衛?森普爾管理的Van Eck新興市場基金（Van Eck Emerging Markets，交易代碼：GBFAX）規模為1.90億美元，在能源股投資方面具有優勢。他還管理著兩只大宗商品基金，聘請了一批石油和天然氣專家為他出謀劃策。得益于這些措施，這只以能源股為主的基金過去5年的年均回報率達到了29.1%，在同類基金中處于前1%的行列。森普爾目前看好Ezion Holdings，這是一家設在新加坡的油田服務公司（美國投資者可以通過Fidelity和E*Trade買賣這只股票）。森普爾預計，東南亞未來的石油需求將上升。對他來說，Ezion Holdings的吸引力在于盈利增長（2013年上半年增幅為95%）、估值適中（動態市盈率8倍）和獨特的利基環境。森普爾說：“這個地區的石油需求顯然非常旺盛，而這家公司似乎處在這個市場的中心。” Ezion Holdings擁有并經營著世界上最大的“救生船”隊——這些船只用于為淺水海上石油平臺提供服務和進行維修。森普爾認為，亞洲市場服務供給不足。和美國墨西哥灣地區相比，在亞洲為石油平臺提供服務的救生船只有前者的七分之一。-J.B. |
Ezion Holdings David Semple David Semple, manager of the $190 million Van Eck Emerging Markets Fund (GBFAX), enjoys an edge when it comes to energy stocks. His fund family includes two commodity funds, and it employs a team of oil and gas experts whom Semple can tap. That has helped his energy-heavy fund tally a 29.1% average annual return over the past five years, putting it in the top 1% of its category. Semple's current favorite: Ezion Holdings, an oil-services company based in Singapore (but available to U.S. investors through the likes of Fidelity and E*Trade). Semple is betting on rising oil demand in Southeast Asia, and Ezion's earnings growth (up 95% in the first half of 2013), modest valuation (a forward P/E of 8), and unique niche appeal to him. Says Semple: "Oil demand from this region is clearly very strong, and this company seems to be at the center of it." Ezion owns and operates one of the world's largest fleets of "liftboats" -- vessels used to service and repair shallow-water, offshore oil platforms. According to Semple, the Asian market is underserved, with one-seventh the ratio of liftboats to oil platforms compared with the Gulf of Mexico. --J.B. |
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中國移動 長期以來被視為狹隘的分紅型股票近幾年頗受青睞。這些股票的走勢起起伏伏，但有件事一直沒變：布萊恩?麥克馬洪的業績總是保持領先。他的Thornburg投資收益積累基金（Thornburg Investment Income Builder，交易代碼：TIBAX）規模為160億美元，10年來的年化回報率為10%，比標普500指數以及同類型的“全球配置”基金的表現高2個百分點。中國移動是全球最大的電信公司，很對麥克馬洪的胃口。它的股息收益率為4.3%，過去5年的年增長率為6%，而且還有上升空間。麥克馬洪說投資者一直在打壓這只股票【該公司在美國發行了美國存托憑證（ADR）】，原因是中國政府在電信行業廣泛采用國產4G技術前就強制中國移動采用這項技術并投入大量資金。他指出，好消息是這項技術看來前景光明而且就要投入使用。“不久他們就會擁有最寬的頻帶，最多的基站，而且還能率先先使用這項偉大的新技術。”這會產生什么結果呢？麥克馬洪預計，中國移動的股價/息稅折舊攤銷前利潤比率將從目前的3.5倍升至2015年的4.5倍。這有可能讓它的股價出現40%甚至更高的增長。--S.M. |
China Mobile Long viewed as frumpy, dividend stocks enjoyed a vogue in recent years. The category has waxed and waned, but one thing has remained constant: Brian McMahon's outperformance. His $16 billion fund (TIBAX) has turned in annualized 10% returns for 10 years, more than two percentage points above results for the S&P 500 and his "world allocation" peers. China Mobile, the world's largest telecom, follows his template. The stock's dividend yields 4.3%, and it has grown at 6% annually for the past five years. But there's more upside. McMahon says investors have punished the stock (which trades as an ADR in the U.S.) because the Chinese government has forced the company to adopt -- and invest heavily in -- the country's homegrown 4G technology before it was widely used by the telecom industry. The good news, he says: The technology looks promising and is about to launch. "Soon they'll have the most spectrum, the most base stations, and the first shot at this great new technology." The result? He expects the stock, trading at 3.5 times Ebitda, to leap to 4.5 by 2015. That could propel the share price by 40% or more. --S.M. |
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瑞士信貸 主權債務危機期間，投資者紛紛逃離歐洲市場，大衛?赫爾羅卻進行了近些年來最大膽的逆向操作之一，全面買入陷入困境的法國、西班牙和意大利金融股。結果，在過去的12個月中他實現了近40%的回報率【Oakmark國際基金（交易代碼：OAKIX）也繼續保持著出眾的表現：15年來的年化回報率為11.3%，而MSCI歐澳遠東指數（EAFE Index）的回報水平為5%】。目前，歐洲似乎已經擺脫困境。在這樣的情況下，赫爾羅現在對瑞士銀行業巨擘瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）的信心空前高漲。他認為，后者正處在“轉折點”上。利率下降和瑞士法郎升值讓瑞士信貸觸及到了盈利周期的最低點，這家銀行一直在增加準備金，以便滿足危機過后更高的資本金要求。但赫爾羅認為，這些不利因素的影響已經消失。接下來瑞士信貸的盈利增幅將達到兩位數，他說：“今后幾年它的年營業利潤應該能夠達到80億美元”，是現在的4倍。赫爾羅認為，這讓瑞士信貸目前8.8倍的動態市盈率和1倍的市凈率顯得低得不合理。--S.M. |
Credit Suisse David Herro Even as investors fled Europe during its sovereign debt crisis, David Herro placed one of the most audacious contrarian bets in recent history, going all-in on beleaguered French, Spanish, and Italian financials. The result: nearly 40% returns over the past 12 months. (The fund's (OAKIX) extended record is also superb: 11.3% annualized returns over the past 15 years, vs. 5.0% for MSCI's EAFE index.) With Europe seemingly off the ledge, Herro now reserves his strongest conviction for Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse, which, he says, is at an "inflection point." Low interest rates and a strong Swiss currency have pushed it to the bottom of its earnings cycle, and the bank has been building reserves to comply with higher post-crisis capital requirements. But those impediments, Herro says, have run their course. The result will be double-digit earnings increases, he says: "Over the coming years it should be able to generate $8 billion in annual operating profits" -- four times the current level. To Herro, that makes the company's forward P/E of 8.8 and price-to-book ratio of 1 look unjustly low. --S.M. |
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Agco 賽拉?澤豪森喜歡淘便宜貨。1年前，她持倉量最多的兩只股票——醫療器械制造商Boston Scientific（交易代碼：BSX，《財富》500強）和紐約時報公司（ New York Times Co. ，交易代碼：NYT）——都不受青睞。今年初以來，這兩只股票的回報率分別為108%和57%。14年來，澤豪森管理的Aston/Fairpointe中盤股基金（Aston/Fairpointe Mid Cap，交易代碼：CHTTX）在超過10年的時間里都實現了12.1%的年化回報率，遠高于同類基金7.8%的平均水平，這就是原因之一。她的最新逆向操作選擇了農業設備制造商Agco。10月份這只股票下跌了9%，原因是季度每股收益比分析師的預期低了1美分。32%的每股收益增速（這對Agco來說是家常便飯）卻無人理會。目前這只股票的2014年預期市盈率只有10倍，澤豪森認為它的上升空間要超過風險。她說：“在人口增長和提高農民收入這兩項因素的作用下，人們會有更大的動力來提高農業生產效率。”管理層一直在通過削減成本來提升利潤率（第三季度利潤率上升了2個百分點）。澤豪森預計，這家公司的利潤率最終將從目前的9%提高到15%。--J.B. |
Agco Thyra Zerhusen Thyra Zerhusen likes rummaging through the bargain bin. A year ago two of her biggest holdings were unpopular: medical-device maker Boston Scientific (BSX, Fortune 500)and newspaper publisher New York Times Co. (NYT) The duo have returned 108% and 57%, respectively, so far in 2013. That's one reason Zerhusen, who has led the fund(CHTTX) for 14 years, has racked up 12.1% annualized returns over 10 years, compared with 7.8% for the category. Her latest contrarian choice is agricultural equipment maker Agco. The stock sank 9% in October after quarterly earnings fell a penny short of analysts' expectations. Never mind that per-share profits were up 32% (which is typical for Agco). With shares trading at just 10 times estimated 2014 earnings, Zerhusen sees much more upside than risk. "Between population growth and expanding farm income, there's more incentive to be efficient in agricultural production," she says. Management has been boosting profit margins (up two percentage points in the third quarter) through cost cutting, and Zerhusen expects the margins eventually to rise from 9% today to 15%. --J.B. |
