中移動入選基金經理推薦的20大金股
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Expedia 史蒂文?波拉克有三條選股標準：價值要有吸引力；要屬于優質行業，有著誘人的自由現金流和資本回報率；還要有一個立即買入的理由，比如走勢良好或者存在推高股價的催化劑。波拉克說，在線旅行服務供應商Expedia“完全滿足這三條要求”。他管理的John Hancock自律型價值中盤股基金（John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund，交易代碼：JVMAX）5年來的年均回報率為28.8%，而標普400中盤股指數在這期間的回報率為27.3%。按照2014年預期每股收益計算，Expedia目前的市盈率為16倍，遠低于主要競爭對手Priceline（交易代碼：PCLN，《財富》500強）的22倍。2013年1-9月份Expedia實現自由現金流7.40億美元，收入同比增長15%。此外，波拉克看好的一點是Expedia和Priceline正在形成寡頭壟斷，這會遏制新的競爭。他還看到了一些潛在催化劑。Expedia控股Trivago和藝龍（eLong），這兩家旅行網站在歐洲和中國市場很受歡迎。波拉克說：“Trivago和藝龍都有極好的成長機會，而且二者都有可能開發衍生業務。” --J.B. |
Expedia Steven Pollack Steven Pollack has three criteria when selecting a stock. The valuation should be enticing; it should be a quality business with attractive free cash flow and return on capital; and there should be a reason to buy the stock now, such as positive momentum or a catalyst to push the stock price higher. Expedia, the online travel firm, "fits all three," says Pollack, whoseJohn Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund (JVMAX) has a 28.8% average annual return over five years, vs. 27.3% for the S&P's Midcap 400 index. Expedia trades at 16 times projected 2014 earnings, well below archrival Priceline's P/E ratio of 22. Expedia reported $740 million in free cash flow during the first nine months of 2013, and revenues are growing at a 15% annual clip. Beyond that, Pollack likes the fact that Expedia andPriceline (PCLN, Fortune 500) are becoming an oligopoly, which will discourage new competition. Pollack also sees potential catalysts. Expedia holds controlling stakes in Trivago and eLong, popular travel sites in Europe and China, respectively. "Both Trivago and eLong have significant growth opportunities," Pollack says, "and both could potentially be spun out." --J.B. |
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Technip 莎拉?科特爾管理著規模為45億美元的Causeway國際價值基金（Causeway International Value Fund，交易代碼：CIVVX），最近她所青睞的是能源股，部分原因是能源板塊一直處于落后狀態。這只基金過去5年的年均回報率為21.2%，高于同類基金16.3%的整體水平。科特爾認為，能源股表現乏力是因為人們過度擔心中國的情況，“中國的發展速度正在放慢，但仍然需要大量能源。”目前她看好的股票是從事深水油氣管道鋪設的Technip。按2014年預期盈利水平計算，Technip目前的市盈率只有13倍。分析師預計，這家公司2014年利潤將猛增27%。Technip的股息收益率為2.1%。10月份以來，Technip的股價下跌了15%，科特爾認為這是受到了同類企業的拖累，原因是該公司兩大對手的盈利情況非常令人失望。深水管道鋪設是Technip的核心業務，但科特爾認為另一項業務將為它帶來長期高額收益。考慮到頁巖氣在美國的蓬勃發展，她認為美國最終將向歐洲輸出液化天然氣。Technip修建的工廠可以將天然氣液化，或者將液化天然氣氣化。科特爾說：“他們在這方面是世界上最好的公司。” --J.B. |
Technip Sarah Ketterer, manager of the $4.5 billion Causeway International Value Fund(CIVVX), is a fan of energy stocks these days, in part because they've lagged. Ketterer, whose fund has averaged 21.2% annual returns over the past five years, vs. 16.3% for its category, blames exaggerated concerns about China for the anemic stock performance: "China is slowing down, but its demand for energy is still very high." Her favorite stock today is Technip, which lays deepwater oil and gas pipelines. The stock trades at a mere 13 times expected 2014 earnings, which analysts project to gush 27%; Technip also offers a 2.1% dividend yield. The stock has slumped 15% since October, and Ketterer blames guilt by association, as two Technip rivals suffered big earnings disappointments. Deepwater pipe-laying is Technip's core business, but Ketterer thinks another specialty will provide long-term windfalls. Given the shale gas boom in the U.S., she expects the country will eventually ship liquefied natural gas to Europe. Technip builds plants that convert natural gas to LNG and LNG back to gas. "They're the best at it in the world," says Ketterer. --J.B. |
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Green REIT Green REIT是愛爾蘭歷史上第一只房地產投資基金，是一個好的投資故事。這是一只嶄新的證券，沒有任何歷史，因此由埃德溫?盧戈這樣一位頂尖基金經理來講述這個投資故事非常有利。他管理著規模為15億美元的富蘭克林國際小盤股成長型基金（Franklin International Small Cap Growth Fund，交易代碼：FINAX），5年來的回報率為25.7%（見上圖），在外國股票基金領域處于前2%的位置。實際上，Green REIT是愛爾蘭房地產領域的一只禿鷲基金。金融危機期間，愛爾蘭商業房地產價格下跌了65%。因此，愛爾蘭政府以及多家銀行最終持有的是760億歐元失去贖回權的房地產和貸款。為加快復蘇步伐，愛爾蘭通過了允許設立房地產投資信托基金（REIT）的法律。7月份，Green REIT成了愛爾蘭的第一只REIT。盧戈說：“房地產管理并不屬于銀行業務”，因此它們愿意“以巨大的折扣”進行轉讓。這看起來是個絕佳時機。10月份，愛爾蘭商業地產價格出現了2007年以來的首次上漲，此時Green REIT剛剛以大幅折扣買了第一批美國房地產。盧戈認為：“在房地產市場抄底的機會非常少，而且愛爾蘭的經濟已經開始好轉。” --J.B. |
Green REIT Edwin Lugo Green REIT, Ireland's first-ever real estate investment trust, is a good story. It's also a brand-new stock with no history, so it helps that the storyteller is a premier manager: Edwin Lugo, whose $1.5 billion Franklin International Small Cap Growth Fund (FINAX)has returned 25.7% a year over the past five years (see chart above), putting it in the top 2% of its foreign stock-fund category. Green REIT is essentially a vulture fund for Irish real estate. Commercial property prices fell 65% during the financial crisis. As a result, the Irish government and various banks ended up holding €76 billion in foreclosed properties and loans. To speed the recovery, Ireland passed a law permitting REITs; in July, Green became the first to launch there. "Banks are not in the business of managing property," says Lugo, so they're willing to sell "at a huge discount." The timing looks excellent. Irish commercial property prices rose in October for the first time since 2007, just as Green made its first purchases at big discounts to U.S. properties. "It's rare you get a chance to buy real estate at the bottom," says Lugo, who notes that "the Irish economy is already turning around." --J.B. |
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大眾公司 吉姆?莫菲特感興趣的是那些不再受青睞的股票。10年來，這種投資方法給Scout國際基金（Scout International Fund，交易代碼：UMBWX）帶來了9.3%的年化回報率，比外國股票指數的回報率高1.6個百分點。最近，這樣的思路讓莫菲特把目光投向了汽車板塊。他對大眾公司（Volkswagen）特別樂觀，原因是后者的表現一直“落后于整個板塊”，但已經為再次崛起打好了基礎。莫菲特指出，大眾最近停滯不前，部分原因是歐洲經濟低迷，另一部分原因是和汽車行業“不同步”。他特別提到，大眾一直沒有在美國推出具有廣泛吸引力的高端產品。不過，現在歐洲經濟有了一些好轉跡象，大眾也計劃在明年推出新產品。莫菲特說，同時，大眾正在通過模塊化制造策略削減成本，他預計這項措施明年就會見效。他的結論是，市場最終會看到這些改善，目前2013年預期市盈率為9倍的大眾將趕上市盈率10.5倍的寶馬（BMW）和11.5倍的戴姆勒（Daimler）。--S.M. |
Volkswagen Jim Moffett Jim Moffett gravitates to out-of-favor stocks, an approach that has delivered an annualized 9.3% for a decade (UMBWX), outperforming the foreign stock index by 1.6 percentage points a year. Lately Moffett's thinking has driven him to the auto industry. He's especially optimistic about Volkswagen because the German automaker has been "lagging the pack" while laying the groundwork for a resurgence. The automaker's recent stall, he says, is partly a reflection of Europe's woeful economy and partly a result of being "out of sync" with the industry. In particular, he says, VW has lacked broadly appealing high-end offerings in the U.S. Now, though, the European economy is showing hints of improvement, and VW plans to roll out new products next year. Meanwhile, he says, the company is reducing costs with its modularized manufacturing strategy, which he expects to show results in the next year. The upshot, Moffett says: The market will eventually perceive the improvement, and VW's stock, currently trading at nine times 2013 expected earnings, will catch up to BMW and Daimler, which have P/Es of 10.5 and 11.5, respectively. --S.M. |
