中移動入選基金經理推薦的20大金股
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別人貪婪的時候要恐懼。這條投資哲理是拜沃倫?巴菲特所賜。按照這樣的原則，在股指創新歷史高、曾經遭到打擊的投資者再次成群結隊地重返股市的時候，我們就應該非常、非常小心。市場似乎早就應該稍作喘息了（甚至是進行全面休整），而這正是一個絕佳的機會，可以聽一聽那些無論在順境和逆境中都表現出色的投資者有哪些想法，進而加以利用。為此，我們從頂尖的共同基金經理那里收集了各種各樣的炒股思路。他們推薦的有價格較低的價值股，也有勢頭迅猛的成長股，有小型企業，也有龐然大物，有美國本土公司，也有來自海外的企業。其中的共性是：薦股者都有出眾的長期業績。經驗壓倒一切，特別是在牛市當中。 一批經受住了時間考驗的精英基金經理人提供了2014年最佳的炒股思路。 |
The moment to be most fearful is when everybody else is blissfully unconcerned. That bit of investing wisdom comes courtesy of Warren Buffett, and by that standard, as stock indexes set new records and once-traumatized investors pile back into equities, we should be very, very cautious. The market is seemingly overdue for a breather (if not a full-fledged swoon), so it's the perfect time to take advantage of insights from investors who have thrived in good times and bad. To that end, we've assembled stock ideas from an eclectic assortment of top mutual fund managers. They've chosen low-priced values and roaring fast-growers; small fry and behemoths; U.S. companies and distant players. The one commonality: the superior long-term records of the people selecting the stocks. Because nothing beats experience, especially when times are good. A time-tested group of elite fund managers offer their best stock ideas for 2014. |
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Vitamin Shoppe 濃縮的都是精華。規模僅為2.60億美元的特納新興增長基金（Turner Emerging Growth，交易代碼：TMCGX）就是如此。1998年弗蘭克?薩斯特思科開始擔任經理人至今，這只基金的年化回報率高達18.9%，遠遠超過晨星公司（Morningstar）統計的小型增長基金9.1%的平均值。目前薩斯特思科看好的股票是Vitamin Shoppe。這是一家全國性連鎖零售商，銷售營養品、維生素和減肥產品。薩斯特思科說：“我喜歡那些無論經濟形勢如何都能不斷增長的股票。”他指出，許多消費者都在尋找實現全面健康的方法。2013年Vitamin Shoppe的股價下跌了6%，原因是現有零售店的營業額增速放慢以及開店數量未達到10%的增長目標。薩斯特思科認為投資者反應過于激烈，他預計：“開店數量仍然可以增長8%或9%。”上個季度，這家公司現有零售店營業額小幅上升了2.6%，低于通常6%以上的水平。薩斯特思科認為，得益于電視節目Dr.Oz的推廣，促進新陳代謝產品在2012年的銷售額增長迅猛，這讓該公司在上個季度很難再有什么作為。他說：“今后季度業績實現增長將變得容易得多。實際上，大多數零售商都會不惜一切代價來實現2.6%的增長。” --J.B. |
Vitamin Shoppe Frank Sustersic Small can be sublime. So it is for the $260 million Turner Emerging Growth Fund(TMCGX), run since 1998 by Frank Sustersic. During that time it has delivered 18.9% annualized returns, obliterating the 9.1% average for Morningstar's small-growth category. His current favorite stock: Vitamin Shoppe, the national retail chain that sells supplements, vitamins, and weight-loss products. "I love to find stocks that are growing irrespective of what's happening with the economy," says Sustersic, who notes that many consumers are seeking holistic health approaches. Vitamin Shoppe's stock has slipped 6% in 2013 because of slowing sales growth at existing stores and missing a target for a 10% increase in new-store openings. Sustersic thinks investors have overreacted. "The store count will still be up 8% or 9%," he says. Sales at existing stores edged up 2.6% last quarter, below the company's usual 6%-plus. Sustersic contends the quarterly comparisons were tough due to gangbuster 2012 sales of "metabolism boosters" promoted by TV's Dr. Oz. "The quarterly comparisons become much easier going forward," says Sustersic. "The reality is that most retailers would kill for 2.6% comps anyway." --J.B. |
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Hain Celestial 勢頭迅猛，價格合理。這就是金伯莉?斯科特的投資哲學。10年來，Waddell & Reed新概念基金（Waddell & Reed New Concepts Fund，交易代碼：UNECX）在她的帶領下實現了11.5%的平均回報率，好于95%的同類基金。目前斯科特看好Hain Celestial。首先，這是因為這家公司銷售的天然有機食品有著極具爆發性的吸引力。但她指出，Hain Celestial不僅僅是全食公司（Whole Foods，交易代碼：WFM，《財富》500強）那樣的企業，傳統雜貨商都在增加天然有機食品的銷售比重。Hain Celestial的聰明之處在于，它在自己銷售的商品中不斷地加入一些創新型品牌。比如5月份被該公司收購的英國嬰兒食品生產商Ella’s Kitchen（從上個月開始，Ella’s Kitchen的嬰兒果泥產品開始進入美國的4000家沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart ，交易代碼：WMT，《財富》500強）超市。3年來，Hain Celestial的盈利增幅一直接近40%。分析師還預計，今后3-5年該公司的每股收益還將以15%的速度增長。斯科特說，此外，Hain Celestial很重視發掘制造業務和供應鏈的生產率，這在成長型公司中“很少見”。結論：她保守預計，這家公司的股價將在4年內從目前的約85美元上漲到135美元。--S.M. |
Hain Celestial Kimberly Scott Burgeoning trends at a reasonable price. That's Kimberly Scott's philosophy. Her Waddell & Reed New Concepts Fund (UNECX) has averaged 11.5% returns over the past decade, better than 95% of its peers, and these days she favors Hain Celestial. The case starts with the exploding appeal of the kind of natural and organic foods the company sells. It ain't justWhole Foods (WFM, Fortune 500) either, she notes; traditional grocers are devoting more shelf space to the category. Plus, Scott says, Hain has been smart about adding innovative brands like the British baby-food maker Ella's Kitchen, acquired in May, to its existing lineup. (Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) began stocking Ella's squeezable pouches at its 4,000 U.S. stores last month.) Hain's earnings have been mounting at close to 40% for the past three years, and analysts project another three to five years of 15% EPS increases. What's more, Scott says, Hain Celestial is the "rare" growth company with a focus on squeezing productivity and profits from its manufacturing operations and supply chain. The upshot: Her "conservative" projections have the stock, currently trading around $85, reaching $135 in the next four years. --S.M. |
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百事公司 唐?亞克曼 唐?亞克曼的經營業績獨步全球的秘訣一直都是溫和和穩定【他管理的亞克曼基金（規模為135億美元，交易代碼：YACKX）和焦點基金（規模為117億美元，交易代碼：YAFFX）10年來的年均回報率都在11%左右，遠遠勝過標普500指數（交易代碼：SPX）3.2%的水平】。亞克曼的策略是，在大公司不受市場青睞時買進、持有它們的股票，而且基本上是永久持有。在市場屢創新高的情況下，亞克曼和他的兒子、基金聯席經理史蒂芬?亞克曼一直在尋找讓人放心的投資標的。史蒂芬說：“我們更注重防御性，而不是攻擊性。”而剔除風險因素后，百事公司（PepsiCo）所承諾的正是他們眼中的最佳回報。通過分紅和回購股票，百事公司將向股東返還4.5%-5%的現金。史蒂芬指出，加上預期中的股價上漲和2%-3%的銷量增長，回報率應該可以達到9%-10%。考慮到百事在快餐領域的壟斷地位以及它前瞻性地想到了推出健康飲品來取代原有產品，這樣的回報率不會隨著時間的推移而逐漸下降。唐指出：“你可以把這當作買進一只估值偏低的AAA級債券，它不會讓你感到非常興奮，但這就是關鍵所在：就算外面狂風呼嘯，你也可以睡個安穩覺。”--S.M. |
PepsiCo Don Yacktman Slow and steady has always been the recipe for Don Yacktman's world-beating results. (His $13.5 billion namesake (YACKX) and $11.7 billion Focused Fund (YAFFX) have both returned about 11% a year for a decade, crushing the S&P (SPX) by 3.2 percentage points a year.) His strategy: Buy great companies when they're out of favor and hold them, more or less forever. With the market regularly hitting new highs, Yacktman and son and co-manager Stephen are craving comfort food. "We're focused on defense more than offense," Stephen says, and PepsiCo promises just about the best "risk-adjusted" returns out there. Between dividends and stock buybacks, the company is paying shareholders 4.5% to 5% in cash. Add in anticipated growth from price increases and 2% to 3% unit volume increases and you can expect to earn 9% to 10%, Stephen argues. Given Pepsi's stranglehold on the snack-food aisle and its forward thinking about healthy alternatives, that return won't be nibbled away over time. "Think of it like buying an undervalued triple-A bond," says Don. "It's not very exciting, but that's the point: You sleep at night when the wind blows." --S.M. |
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塔吉特公司 從多個角度來說，2013年塔吉特公司（Target）在加拿大開疆拓土是一場悲劇。這家公司計劃中的第一家“124 Canadian”零售店3月份開張，隨即就陷入價格較高而商品種類有限的困境。塔吉特今年跑輸標普指數50%，這是原因之一。但管理著Invesco多元化分紅型基金（Invesco Diversified Dividend Fund，規模為87億美元，交易代碼：LCEAX）的梅根?沃爾什認為，塔吉特的走勢并不合理。10年來，她的基金實現了8.7%的平均年化回報率，高于標普指數7.8%的水平。這只基金尋找的是估值偏低的分紅型公司。沃爾什說：“塔吉特已經知道問題出在哪里，它的股東馬上就要從投資中受益了。”她認為，在加拿大方面的幫助下，明年塔吉特的資本開支將減少10億美元，而且有可能將多余現金返還給股東。和競爭對手相比，光臨塔吉特的消費者有著更高的平均收入，在非必需品上的支出也更多。沃爾什因此認為，塔吉特的同店銷售額將上升。她指出，這將帶動塔吉特的動態市盈率從14倍升至15.5倍的10年平均值。--S.M. |
Target By many accounts, Target botched its 2013 incursion into Canada. When the first of the retailer's planned 124 Canadian stores opened in March, it was hampered by high prices and limited supplies. That's one reason Target's shares have underperformed the S&P by 50% this year. But Meggan Walsh, who runs the $8.7 billion Invesco Diversified Dividend Fund (LCEAX), thinks the episode has been blown out of proportion. Her fund, which has averaged 8.7% annualized returns over a decade, vs. 7.8% for the S&P, looks for undervalued dividend-payers. "The problems have been identified, and we're at the point where shareholders will begin to benefit from the investments," she says. With the Canadian push behind it, she adds, Target will reduce capital expenditures by $1 billion next year and is likely to pass the extra cash to shareholders. And because Target's customers have higher average incomes and do more discretionary spending than the competition's, Walsh expects better same-store sales. That, she argues, will help nudge its forward P/E ratio from 14 back toward its 10-year average of 15.5. --S.M. |
