????奧巴馬政府表示，這份協(xié)議“作用有限，是權宜之計，它所緩解的矛盾可能重新激化”，這番表態(tài)基本上體現(xiàn)出了這份協(xié)議到底有多差勁。它允許伊朗繼續(xù)出口石油，但只限于六個國家，而且日出口量只有約100萬桶，比伊朗的出口能力低150萬桶。美國政府估算，依然生效的制裁措施將使伊朗政府每個月?lián)p失50億美元（306.5億元人民幣）左右。伊朗從去年開始遭到更為嚴厲的制裁，迄今已蒙受原油出口損失800億美元（4904億元人民幣）。此外，伊朗在全球各地的約1000億美元（6130億元人民幣）外匯資產(chǎn)（此前曾被其他國家用于購買石油）仍將處于凍結狀態(tài)。

????伊朗得到的實惠是一大堆減輕制裁的條款。美國政府估算，這將使伊朗的收入增加70億美元（429.1億元人民幣）左右。雖然這不是個小數(shù)目，但它很難彌補繼續(xù)進行鈾濃縮活動給伊朗帶來的損失。協(xié)議同時取消了伊朗在出口化工產(chǎn)品和黃金等貴金屬方面所受的限制。但目前還不清楚伊朗可以出口多少黃金，因為今年6月份加強黃金進口制裁前，伊朗曾以石油換取大量黃金，美國方面當然希望確保伊朗不會故技重施。除了增加收入外，美國及其盟友出于自身利益考慮，還為亦敵亦友的伊朗兄弟提供了一些額外優(yōu)惠。比如說，放松限制后伊朗可以從美國（波音，Boeing）和歐盟（空中客車，Airbus）進口商用飛機零部件。顯然，美國和歐盟可以既促和平，又興貿(mào)易。

????伊朗國內(nèi)將這份協(xié)議視為一項謹慎的初步措施，目的是減輕制裁措施對本國貨幣的不利影響。據(jù)伊朗國內(nèi)消息人士透露，去年的制裁生效以來，伊朗里亞爾兌美元的市場價已經(jīng)暴跌了80%，嚴重扭曲了伊朗國內(nèi)的資產(chǎn)價格。這些消息人士同時還表示，伊朗的通脹率一直維持在40%左右。

????顯然，伊朗發(fā)展核技術的遠大目標讓伊朗民眾苦不堪言。不過，局勢還沒有壞到在德黑蘭的大街小巷激起民眾抗議的程度。到目前為止，伊朗的武裝力量看來一直處于戒備狀態(tài)，而且對伊朗精神領袖阿亞圖拉?哈梅內(nèi)伊忠心耿耿。

????那么伊朗為什么在這個時候決定進行談判呢？奧巴馬政府會說，是蒙受更沉重經(jīng)濟損失的風險迫使伊朗領導人坐到了談判桌旁。但伊朗已經(jīng)在制裁中挺立了10年，其中兩年的制裁損失接近1000億美元（6130億元人民幣）。是因為伊朗人極端固執(zhí)呢？還是因為目前受到威脅的東西比伊朗使用核能的權力更加重要？如果真的像以色列所堅信的那樣，伊朗發(fā)展核武器的場所并不為IAEA和美國所知，那么，在這種情況下和伊朗簽署協(xié)議就毫無意義，因為這樣做并不能實現(xiàn)防止伊朗掌握核武器的目標。

????如果在伊朗發(fā)現(xiàn)新的核燃料濃縮場所，和談就會戛然而止。相反，如果談判進展順利而且即將達成協(xié)議，以色列就可能選擇單獨行動，從而起到推波助瀾的作用。因此，對中東地區(qū)和市場來說，今后六個月的局勢很可能會更不安穩(wěn)，而不是趨于平靜。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie????????????????????????

????The agreement, which the Obama Administration refers to as "Limited, Temporary, Reversible Relief," is pretty much as terrible as that moniker suggests. Iran will still be allowed to export oil to just six countries, at capped amounts that add up to around 1 million barrels a day, which is 1.5 million barrels a day below the country's export capacity. The U.S. government estimates that continued sanctions will cost the Iranian government around $5 billion a month. So far the Iranian government has given up an estimated $80 billion in lost oil sales since the enhanced sanctions went into effect last year. In addition, around $100 billion of Iranian foreign exchange assets (used to purchase oil in the past by other nations) will remain frozen across the globe.

????What Iran does get is a hodge-podge of sanction relief, which the U.S. government estimates will add about $7 billion in extra revenue to Iran's coffers. While that figure is nothing to sneeze at, it hardly makes up for the billions of dollars that the government is giving up by keeping its nuclear program going. Restrictions on the sale of petrochemicals, gold and other precious metals were also lifted. It is unclear how much gold Iran will be allowed to trade, though, as the U.S. will want to make sure Iran isn't just swapping oil for gold as it had been in large amounts before sanctions on gold imports tightened in June of this year. In addition to the extra revenue, the U.S. and its allies also offered a few self-serving perks to their new Iranian frenemies. For example, one eases restrictions on the importation of commercial aircraft parts from the U.S. (Boeing (BA)) and E.U. (Airbus). Apparently, the U.S. and E.U. can promote peace and business at the same time.

????Inside Iran the deal is being seen as a cautious first step to alleviating the damaging impact the sanctions have had on the nation's currency. Since the sanctions began last year, the street price of Iran's currency is down as much as 80% to the dollar, creating massive distortions in asset prices throughout the country, according to sources inside Iran. At the same time, inflation is hovering somewhere around 40%, these people say.

????Iran's nuclear ambitions have clearly caused a lot of headaches for the Iranian people. Nevertheless, things haven't gotten so bad to cause widespread civil disobedience on the streets of Tehran. For now, Iran's security forces appear vigilant and fully committed to the nation's leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

????So why has Iran decided to talk now? The Obama Administration would say that the threat of further economic pain is what forced Iran's Mullahs to the bargaining table. But the nation has endured 10 years of sanctions, two of which have cost Iran nearly $100 billion in lost revenue. Are the Iranians just incredibly stubborn or is there something greater at stake here than Iran's "right" to use nuclear energy? If Iran is developing nuclear weapons, as Israel believes wholeheartedly, it is doing so at a site that is unknown to the IAEA and the U.S. As such, any agreement made with Iran would be futile as it fails to achieve the objective of denying nuclear weapons to Iran.

????Discovery of a new nuclear enrichment site could bring the negotiations to a screeching halt. On the other hand, if all goes well and a deal is imminent, Israel may choose to take matters into its own hands, rocking what is an already shaky situation. That's why the next six months will probably be more, not less, volatile, for both the Middle East and the markets.