????特斯拉汽車公司（Tesla Motors）的價值為什么會達到令人震驚、難以置信、甚至有些不現實的149億美元（914.86億元人民幣），人們眾說紛紜。

????我也有我的看法。

????上個季度特斯拉汽車虧損了4億美元（24.56億元人民幣），共售出S型轎車1.5萬輛。這是這家公司的唯一產品，不過由于三輛S型轎車發生起火事故，聯邦安全機構已經介入調查。

????人們經常用市盈率來衡量一只股票的價格。由于特斯拉汽車沒有盈利——至少上個季度沒有——因此無法計算它的市盈率。

????有人說，投資者追捧特斯拉汽車的原因是電動汽車早晚會流行起來，就像智能手機一樣。也有人認為，一家大型汽車制造企業正打算收購特斯拉汽車，摘取電動汽車技術的果實，同時獲得政府的碳排放額度——所有汽車廠商都需要這樣的額度來抵消能耗較低車型所產生的影響。

????我認為特斯拉汽車的價值和史蒂夫?喬布斯留下的光環有很大關系，這和克里斯?安德森在《財富》（Fortune）雜志上發表的文章觀點類似。喬布斯是硅谷的少年英才。他跟人聯合創辦了蘋果公司（Apple），還在1980年帶領公司實現了上市。考慮到股票分割因素，當時的發行價約為4美元。目前，蘋果公司的股價約為515美元，而且一度逼近700美元。

????許多投資者仍在念叨，要是當初只買進蘋果公司的股票，而且一直拿在手上，那得掙多少錢。

????眾所周知，喬布斯脾氣暴躁，這和另一位業界明星、特斯拉汽車創始人兼首席執行官埃隆?馬斯克很像。很多很多人，包括我在內，都曾敦促喬布斯就Mac操作系統進行大范圍授權，就像微軟（Microsoft）就MS-DOS系統對外提供授權那樣。如果他這樣做了，蘋果產品的克隆版本就會大行其道，就像個人電腦那樣。

????就在喬布斯猶豫不決時，微軟的操作系統成了行業標準。后來，喬布斯被迫離開了蘋果公司，但這只是他以勝利者的姿態重返這家公司的序曲。喬布斯的眼光很適合蘋果公司，由此產生的回報就是，現在蘋果公司價值4630億美元（28428.2億元人民幣），而微軟的價值為3090億美元（18972.6億元人民幣）。

????現在的馬斯克和那時的喬布斯一樣斗志昂揚。有些人認為電動汽車市場規模有限，要么質疑特斯拉汽車采用的電池技術，要么把聯邦政府機構的安全調查掛在嘴邊，馬斯克從不向這些人低頭。據報道，聯邦機構正在調查的三起特斯拉S型轎車起火事故都是由于碰撞引起。

????馬斯克已經在Twitter上以及其他場合回應說，許多車都會在發生交通事故后起火。情況確實如此，但截至目前還沒有關于日產（Nissan）的Leaf電動汽車起火的報道，無論是在發生事故后，還是在其他情況下。日產公布的數據顯示，截至9月份，聆風電動汽車在全球共售出了8.3萬輛。

????從許多方面來看，馬斯克已經成為科技領域中的第二個史蒂夫?喬布斯。他才華橫溢，工作勤奮，勇于挑戰傳統，而且不會欣然接受別人的愚蠢（看看誰和穆斯克意見不一）。質疑喬布斯的投資者都錯過了蘋果公司股價飆升所帶來的機會，他們可能把特斯拉汽車看成彌補這個疏忽的一條途徑。

????現在買進特斯拉汽車的投資者有可能在今后電動汽車銷量上升時，或者某家大型汽車廠商決定全面收購特斯拉汽車時套現，從而大賺一筆。

????我對喬布斯的看法是錯的，他在計算機領域的眼光很正確。但對于穆斯克，我不知道該怎樣判斷，因為電動汽車一直銷路不暢。但我確實知道，就目前的股價而言，特斯拉汽車的上升空間看來相當有限。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????Theories abound as to how Tesla Motors could be worth a stunning, incredible, improbable $14.9 billion.

????I have my own.

????Tesla (TSLA) lost $400 million in its latest quarter, has sold a grand total of 15,000 Model S sedans, and is facing a federal investigation after three vehicle fires raised questions about its only model's safety.

????Stock price often is measured as a multiple of earnings per share. Since Tesla posted no earnings, at least in its latest quarter, it doesn't have a P/E or price to earnings ratio.

????Some say investors are bidding up Tesla because they're sure it's only a matter of time before electric vehicles catch on, like smartphones. Others are theorizing that a big carmaker is planning to buy tiny Tesla to avail itself of electric-vehicle technology and governmental clean-air credits that all automakers need to offset their relatively inefficient models.

????Similar to what Chris Anderson argues in Fortune, I believe the aura left by the late Steve Jobs has much to do with Tesla's value. Jobs was a Silicon Valley wunderkind who took Apple (AAPL), the company he co-founded, public in 1980 at about $4 a share, on a split-adjusted basis. Apple stock currently sells for about $515 a share and briefly has traded at nearly $700 a share.

????Lots of investors are still muttering about the money they "could have made" if they'd only bought Apple shares and hung on.

????Jobs was famously irascible, like another shining star of the business world, Tesla founder and chief executive officer, Elon Musk. Lots and lots of people, me among them, urged Jobs to license Apple's operating system broadly, as Microsoft had done with its MS-DOS system. Had he done so, Apple clones would have proliferated, just like PCs.

????Jobs balked, while Microsoft's (MSFT) system became an industry standard. Jobs was eventually forced out of his company, only to return in triumph. Jobs' vision was the right one for Apple. The payoff: Today, Apple is worth $463 billion, compared to Microsoft's $309 billion.

????Musk is as combative today as Jobs was then, challenging skeptics who say the market for electric vehicles is limited, who question Tesla's approach to battery technology or who point to the federal safety investigation. The Feds are investigating the three fires in Tesla Model S cars that are reported to have hit debris in the road.

????Musk has responded in Tweets and elsewhere that lots of cars catch on fire after road accidents. True, but so far no reports of fires to Nissan Leaf electric vehicles, in accidents or otherwise. Nissan reported global sales of 83,000 Leafs as of September.

????In many ways, Musk has stepped into the tech sector as a replacement for Steve Jobs. Musk is a brilliant, driven, iconoclast who doesn't suffer fools (read: those who don't agree with him) gladly. Investors who doubted Jobs and missed the spectacular run-up of Apple stock may see Tesla as a way to offset their missed opportunity.

????By buying Tesla shares now, investors could cash in handsomely down the road, when the share values soar due to a rise in electric vehicle sales -- or perhaps when a major automaker decides to acquire the entire company.

????I was wrong about Jobs; his vision for computing was valid. I don't know about Musk: Electric cars have been a tough sell.

????What I do know is that the upside for Tesla shares at their current price looks quite limited.