Twitter公司的上市令人震驚地表明，投資業(yè)一些最讓人困惑的做法又故伎重演，充分發(fā)威了。這兩者都是市場泡沫的標(biāo)志，而市場低迷的時候它們卻往往銷聲匿跡。第一個就是華爾街最喜歡的IPO手法，它讓銀行和機(jī)構(gòu)投資者賺得盆滿缽滿，卻將客戶置于不利地位。2012年它們搞砸了Facebook的上市，那只緊攫著上市公司的手才有所放松。但現(xiàn)在銀行又重新掌控了大局，只消一天就能賺到大錢，此情此景讓人回想起2000年和2001年的光景。現(xiàn)在我們又落在它們手上了！

第二個就是投資者對充滿魅力的科技股熱情高漲，致使新公司剛上市就估值驚人。在科技股熱潮中，對多數(shù)IPO來說這個法則并不適用。但現(xiàn)在它卻在Twitter身上體現(xiàn)得淋漓盡致。

就IPO而言，新股發(fā)行成功與否主要取決于目標(biāo)。如果目標(biāo)是制造轟動效應(yīng)，讓分析師和電視主持人爭相追捧，那么成為一個大家競相追逐的大熱門就算“成功”。這種追捧可能提升品牌，吸引那些矢志效忠、感激涕零的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者。如果管理層的觀念比較傳統(tǒng)，認(rèn)為IPO就該是一種融資手段，主要是幫助公司以最低代價籌措最多資金，由此使市值最大化并獲得增長所需要的資本，那么上市首日就讓股價飛漲就很不合適了。

如果Twitter本來的目標(biāo)是最大限度籌措資金，那昨天它距離這個目標(biāo)可謂相距甚遠(yuǎn)。在上市過程中，它倒是把一筆意外橫財拱手送給了投資銀行家及其主要由機(jī)構(gòu)投資者構(gòu)成的客戶。這筆橫財是IPO真正的“成本”。Twitter共有七個承銷商，包括摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）和美國銀行（Bank of America）等。它們在股票上市前以26美元的定價賣出了7000萬股，幫Twitter募到了17.6億美元，而銀行從中賺到了5900萬美元。

Twitter上市當(dāng)天，股市低迷，但Twitter的股價卻一路飆升，漲了18.74美元。投資者一下子賺了13.25億美元。Twitter的招股說明書透露，投資銀行有權(quán)以26美元的發(fā)行價購買1050萬股。如果這些承銷商真的行使了這項令人難以置信的權(quán)利，那這七家銀行昨天一舉就賺了1.99億美元。它們另外還賺了300萬美元的承銷費，從而讓華爾街的總收益達(dá)到了驚人的2.61億美元。

Twitter總共留在“桌面上”的金額達(dá)到了15.24億美元，其中13.25億美元來自首輪IPO，1.99億美元是第二輪付給銀行的錢。總共算下來，Twitter募集了20.3億美元（其中17.6億美元來自第一輪上市，2.7億美元來自分給華爾街的費用）。因此，它為了募到20億美元，付出了約15億美元，實際費用占比達(dá)到了75%。無需多怪，華爾街從來就是這么讓人瞠目結(jié)舌。

那么，投資者從這場市場大肆慶祝的IPO中好好賺點錢的機(jī)會在哪兒呢？從Twitter的公開市值中是沒法了解它今后能賺多少錢的，但這個數(shù)字卻提供了關(guān)于它必須賺多少錢的嚴(yán)格衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。從2010年至今，Twitter的總虧損已超過4億美元。而它現(xiàn)在的市值幾乎有250億美元之巨。讓我們假設(shè)投資者要求這一明顯是充滿風(fēng)險的投資年回報率為10%，那么到2020年底，Twitter的市值必須達(dá)到500億美元才能真正讓昨天這些投資者獲得回報。

讓我們進(jìn)一步假設(shè)，在未來七年中，Twitter始終能保持25的市盈率。要實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，它每年的凈收益必須達(dá)到20億美元。隨后我們可以預(yù)測，在達(dá)到這樣的高點之后，Twitter五年后的市盈率逐步下降到仍算驚人的18。這樣一來，到2025年Twitter每年的凈收益必須達(dá)到40億美元。就算營業(yè)毛利率只有30%，它的銷售收入也要有約180億美元才行。

不可能預(yù)測昨天這些投資者的選擇是否正確。以前曾有些明星科技公司甚至到達(dá)過更高的估值水平。我們所知道的是，如果Twitter已將13.5億美元變成資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上的現(xiàn)金，而不是把它用于IPO，它就會有更多的錢來經(jīng)營自己的業(yè)務(wù)（而其市值也會再多出10億美元）。

Twitter是家令人振奮的創(chuàng)新公司，但它的IPO遵循的卻是華爾街最引以為豪的傳統(tǒng)手法。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

Twitter's debut as a public company stunningly illustrates that two of the most baffling customs in the investment business are back in full force. Both are hallmarks of frothy markets that typically retreat in tough times. The first is Wall Street's preferred IPO process that enriches the banks and institutional investors but penalizes their clients. That grip weakened with the botched Facebook (FB) offering in 2012. Now the banks are back in control, engineering one-day gains reminiscent of 2000 and 2001. Here we go again.

The second is investors' enthusiasm for glamorous tech offerings, resulting in gigantic opening valuations for newly minted companies. The math didn't work for most of the IPOs during the tech craze. Nor does it work well with Twitter (TWTR).

On the IPO, judging whether an offering is successful or not depends on the objective. If the goal is to generate buzz and kudos from analysts and TV anchors, then a huge pop may spell "success." The pop may enhance the brand and attract grateful institutional investors who pledge to remain loyal. If management takes the traditional view that an IPO should serve as a financing event in which the company raises the most money at the least cost, thereby maximizing its market value and capital for growth, then a soaring price on day one is far from desirable.

Yesterday, Twitter garnered far less money than if its goal were to maximize cash in its coffers. In the process, it handed a windfall to both the investment bankers and their mainly institutional clients. Call the windfall the real "cost" of the IPO. Twitter's seven underwriters, a group that includes Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Bank of America (BAC), sold 70 million shares at a fixed price of $26 prior to the stock's debut. Those sales raised $1.76 billion for Twitter, after the banks' fees of $59 million.

Twitter's shares soared in a terrible market yesterday, rising $18.74. Hence, investors made a gain of $1.325 billion. That's not the entire story. Twitter's offering statement discloses that the investment banks have the right to purchase 10.5 million shares at the offering price of $26. Assuming the underwriters exercised that fabulous option, those seven banks booked combined gains of $199 million yesterday. They also pocketed another $3 million in fees, bringing Wall Street's total take to $261 million.

In total, Twitter left $1.524 billion "on the table," the $1.325 billion from the original IPO allotment, and the $199 million on the second tranche awarded to the banks. All told, Twitter raised $2.03 billion ($1.76 tranche from the first tranche and $270 million from the Wall Street allotment). Hence, it paid around $1.5 billion to raise $2 billion, an effective fee of 75%. No wonder Wall Street never ceases to amaze.

So what's the chance that investors will profit handsomely from this celebrated IPO? Twitter's opening market value tells you nothing about how much money it will earn. But it provides a strict measure of what it has to earn. Since 2010, Twitter has booked combined losses of over $400 million. Its market cap now stands at almost $25 billion. Let's say investors demand a 10% annual return on what is clearly a risky investment. So by the end of 2020, Twitter would need a valuation of $50 billion to really reward yesterday's investors.

Let's further assume that Twitter boasts a premium 25 price-to-earnings multiple in seven years. To get there, it would need net earnings of $2 billion a year. Then we'll forecast that after making that high hurdle, Twitter experiences a gradual decline in its multiple to a still formidable 18 five years later. Hence, by 2025, Twitter would need to earn $4 billion a year. Even assuming a 30% operating margin, its sales would have to rise to the $18 billion range.

It's impossible to predict if yesterday's investors were right. A few tech stars have indeed climbed hills that are even steeper. We do know that if Twitter had put the $1.35 billion into cash on its balance sheet rather than effectively spent it on the IPO, it would have a lot more money to spend on building its business (and its market cap would be over $1 billion higher).

Twitter is an exciting new company. Its IPO was conducted according to Wall Street's most prized traditions.