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我們當年為什么敢投資LinkedIn

我們當年為什么敢投資LinkedIn

David Sze 2013-10-17
如今的LinkedIn自然如日中天,光彩照人。但是九年前,它在眾多競爭對手當中并不出眾,而社交網絡基本上還是一個還沒有得到認可的全新概念。不過,LinkedIn早期的投資者依然看到了這家公司身上成功的潛力,明智地作出了投資的決定。他們看到了什么?

????我認為提供當時從我們的角度得出的一些觀點也會非常有趣。所以我翻出了在雷德的演示之前,我給合伙人傳閱的投資備忘錄,以完善和總結我撰寫的審查評估。以下便是支持格雷洛克和我對LinkedIn投資觀點的論據節選。

????? 使命。“LinkedIn的使命是構建領先的、主打職業社交的網站,讓用戶‘通過他們已經信任的聯系人,找到和聯系他們未來需要的人脈。’”

????? 業務。“這實際上是一項有著強大傳播性和網絡效應的業務……整個網站服務于職業社交的目的,因此收費服務很自然地成為網站的一部分,這不會讓用戶分流——任何時候都有大量用戶在找工作,在尋找雇員、服務、承包商,或者在建立用于銷售和業務發展的關系網絡。”

????? 發展途徑。“發展分為三個階段:(1)發展用戶基礎,擴大網絡影響力,擴大用戶規模和數據庫容量;(2)通過(a)不斷改善用戶界面和易用性,(b)依托于數據庫開發增值應用和實用程序,以發掘用戶使用網絡的價值,著重增加網站的使用價值和再次使用率,培養用戶的使用習慣;(3)通過(a)‘機遇’服務:……(b)‘InLeads’服務:……(c)‘Network Plus’服務:……,將用戶群和網絡資產轉化為利潤。”

????? 盈利。“如果這個網站保持強勁勢頭,創造了價值,同時培養了用戶的使用習慣,它將成功瓜分目前以招聘網站Monster.com為主的求職市場,形成巨大的盈利潛力,而這只是該網站眾多盈利點中的一個。”

????? 挑戰。“我的觀點(也是他們的觀點)認為他們還需要花大功夫精簡用戶界面,在他們的數據庫中增加相關的應用和軟件,從而能夠在用戶瀏覽網頁,試圖從系統中獲取所需時,展現出具有相當價值的精簡結果。我重點要確保他們在向用戶大面積收費之前先把這項事情做好。如果在搖錢樹還是樹苗的時候就把它砍掉,要冒很大的風險。”

????? 規模。“這種業務最難、也是最具風險的一點是,以合理的代價建立大規模、高質量的用戶群體,從而進行擴張——這一點他們幾乎已經完全具備了。”

????? 人。“我相信他們和我們是同一類人。頭腦靈活、天資聰穎、積極進取、不畏競爭、善于分析、精益求精、努力勤勉、坦率誠懇,并且勇于冒險。”

????? 競爭。在當時,LinkedIn是一大批職業社交初創公司中的一員,同類公司包括Plaxo、Spoke、Ryze、Zero Degrees等。這些公司規模相對而言都很小,盡管它們許多都比LinkedIn大。

????? 總結。“我對這個機會充滿興趣。我相信他們走處在正軌上,有機會在人際網絡領域謀得自己的一席之地,他們也有潛力依托用戶群創造更具吸引力的用戶體驗,以用戶相對可以接受的方式收費。他們有很大的收入和利潤潛力。此外,我還認為雷德在這類業務中會是世界頂尖的領袖,與他共事讓我感到激動。”?

????I thought it would also be interesting to provide some perspective from our vantage at the time, so I dug out the investment memorandum that I circulated to the partnership prior to Reid's presentation to complement and summarize my compiled due diligence. What follows are excerpts of the arguments I gave to support Greylock's and my investment thesis in LinkedIn.

????? Mission. "LinkedIn's mission is to create the leading, business-focused network site for people where they can "find and contact the people they need, through the people they already trust."

????? Business. "This is inherently a business with strong viral distribution and network effects… And because the whole context of the site is business networking, monetization areas are natural additions to the site, not diversions for users — many of whom at any given time are either looking for jobs, considering looking for jobs, looking to hire people/services/contractors, looking to do sales/BD oriented networking."

????? Path Forward. "Development in three phases: (1) grow the userbase and establish breakaway network effects and scale of user-base/database … ; (2) focus on improving user value, repeat usage, and habit building through (a) better improvements in UI and ease of use, and (b) by building value-added applications and wizards on the database to improve user-mining of value from the network; (3) monetization of the user/network asset through (a) "Opportunities": …, (b) "InLeads": …, and (c) "Network Plus": …

????? Monetization. "If the network remains robust, and they succeed in building value and habit, their monetization potential could be a significant portion of the existing Monster.com market as just a first monetization opportunity."

????? Challenge. "My belief (and theirs) is that they have much work to do cleaning up the UI, and packaging relevant applications and wizards on top of their database to surface high-value, simple results matched to the networking processes that people are trying to mine out of the system. I am focused on making sure they get this right before driving too much into mining the user base for money. There is a significant risk in 'killing the golden goose' before it's fully hatched."

????? Scale. "One of the hardest/riskiest parts of this type of business is getting scale on building a large, high-quality user base at reasonable cost — and this is almost fully behind them already."

????? People. "I believe these are our kind of people. Bright, talented, aggressive/competitive, analytical, committed to excellence, hard-working, intellectually honest, and risk-taking."

????? Competition. In those days, Linkedin was one of a bunch of early business-networking startups such as Plaxo, Spoke, Ryze, Zero Degrees, etc. All of these companies were relatively small, though a number were larger than Linkedin.

????? Summary. "I am very enthusiastic about this opportunity. I think they are well on the way to being impossible to catch in their space from network development, and they have the potential to build a much more addictive experience on top of that userbase, and to monetize it in ways that are relatively non-jarring to their users, and with large revenues and margin potential. I also think Reid is world-class in this type of business and am excited to work with him."?

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