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假如美國違約,美元的下場會很難看

假如美國違約,美元的下場會很難看

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-10-17
美國國會昨天終于達成了提高美國債務上限的協議,市場或許會平靜下來。但如果未來美國出現違約,它不僅將給美國造成直接的經濟損失,還會嚴重威脅到美元在全球的主導地位,進而影響到美國在全球經濟中扮演的角色。

????此外,根據相關協議,共同基金不能持有違約證券,因此他們肯定會火速清倉美國國債。所有這些都將威脅商業銀行的健康,損害美國聯邦存款保險公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.)的信譽。艾肯格林寫道:“除了短期財務成本外,美元的避險作用也將喪失。”

????可以肯定的是,美元早就沒有那么受歡迎了。近幾年來,為了提高外匯儲備收益水平和降低風險,全球第二大經濟體中國一直在減持美國國債,分散外匯儲備投資風險。截至6月,在中國國家外匯管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)持有的外匯儲備中,美國國債所占的比例為35%左右,而2010年6月這一比例為45%。

????美國的政治僵局解決不了問題。雖然本周美國可能會僥幸避免違約,但如果債務上限談判再度陷入僵局,美元將會逐步喪失它強大的地位。(財富中文網)

????譯者:William??

????And mutual funds prohibited by covenant from holding defaulted securities would have to dump their Treasuries in a fire sale. And all this could threaten the health of commercial banks and undermine confidence in the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which insures deposits. "Beyond the immediate financial costs, the dollar's global safe-haven status would be lost," Eichengreen writes.

????To be sure, the dollar has already been unraveling. In recent years, China, the world's second-largest economy, has been trying to diversify away from U.S. government debt to seek higher returns and reduce risk. As of June, about 35% of the foreign-exchange funds held by China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange were in U.S. government debt, compared with 45% in June 2010.

????U.S. political gridlock doesn't help. The nation may barely miss default this week, but another showdown over the debt ceiling puts Americans closer to the fall of the mighty greenback.

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