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美國債務上限難題:先還債,還是先發(fā)社保

美國債務上限難題:先還債,還是先發(fā)社保

Cyrus Sanati 2013-10-11
美國債務上限問題懸而未決,但美國政府手頭的現(xiàn)金已經(jīng)捉襟見肘,撐不了多長時間。資金有限,但要花錢的地方太多了。到底是先把錢還給中國這些持有美國國債的大債主,還是優(yōu)先用來給國內(nèi)靠社保過日子的老奶奶,奧巴馬犯愁了。

????觸及債務上限并非世界末日——至少它不會馬上到來。如果美國國會議員在10月17日最終期限過后仍然爭執(zhí)不休,很可能出現(xiàn)的情況就是美國政府靠現(xiàn)金支撐一個月左右,然后就必須開始做出艱難的抉擇。如果這種情況延續(xù)到12月份,大家就不用惦記今年的圣誕節(jié)了。

????共和黨人在最近的預算論戰(zhàn)中一直信誓旦旦地說他們不會把債務上限當做迫使奧巴馬政府讓步的談判籌碼。的確,他們愿意讓政府關門,而且上周他們已經(jīng)這樣做了,但他們不愿意因為自己拒絕提高債務上限而讓美國違約。但就在剛剛過去的這個周末,眾議院議長約翰?博納在美國廣播公司(ABC)的This Week節(jié)目上說“眾議院投票的目的不是為了通過一個明確的債務上限”,這番言論激化了這場論戰(zhàn)。博納還說:“總統(tǒng)不跟我們對話,這樣做是在冒違約的風險?!敝芏?,奧巴馬做出反擊。他表示,今年民主黨參議員曾19次嘗試和共和黨人商討預算,但都遭到了拒絕。

????在這場和奧巴馬政府的長期博弈中,共和黨方面此時加碼的原因還不清楚。這可能是博納議長保留顏面的舉動,目的是想讓奧巴馬政府接受本方在預算問題上做出較小的讓步,這樣他就不至于一敗涂地。無論出于什么原因,違約風險本身就已經(jīng)讓本周的華爾街打了個哆嗦,美國股市遭遇重挫,美國國債收益率則小幅上升。周二,體現(xiàn)股市波動幅度的VIX指數(shù)升至20以上,表明市場真的有了顧慮。

????如果未能及時提高債務上限,很難說會出現(xiàn)什么樣的局面,因為這種情況前所未有。實際上,自1917年設立以來,美國國會已經(jīng)73次投票同意提高政府債務上限。但考慮到政府債務即將達到17萬億美元(104.47萬億元人民幣)這個難以維繼的高水平,再加上共和黨內(nèi)部意見不統(tǒng)一,第74次投票可能會變得非常有意思。

????那么,如果美國政府在10月17日觸及債務上限,會出現(xiàn)什么樣的情況呢?財政部的“支票賬戶”里還會剩下300億美元(1843.5億元人民幣),四處都會充斥著恐慌氣氛。有些人認為,財政部可能會把這些資金首先用在比較“重要”的方面,同時暫緩那些不太重要的支出,直到國會恢復神智,提高債務上限。比如,財政部可能會決定發(fā)放退伍軍人福利,但暫時不給現(xiàn)役部隊撥款。

????但誰來決定哪些事情比較重要呢?不是財政部。已經(jīng)有人指出,由財政部進行選擇是非法行為,他們不會這樣做。無論怎樣,就算有這樣的想法,財政部也可能無法采取這樣的行動,原因是作為美國政府的出納機構,財政部顯然沒辦法在支付對象和支付時間方面實現(xiàn)差異化運作。這就好比你的支票賬戶每天都需要自動支付8000萬筆款項,停止一千筆付款都很難,更不用說數(shù)百萬筆了。人們可能覺得政府的支付系統(tǒng)會比較完善,但顯然這個系統(tǒng)只是在機械地運轉。幸好,向美國國債持有人支付利息的是另一套支付系統(tǒng),所以從理論上講政府可以把這筆付款安排在其他所有要支付的款項之前。雖然先支付債券利息、而不是老年人社保可能不合法或者不道德,但它可以避免美國國債違約。

????當然,只要未能及時向任何一位債權人付款,從技術上講美國政府就已經(jīng)違約——無論對方是堪薩斯州沒能領到社保的老奶奶,還是持有美國國債的中國政府。但華爾街和白宮說到自己所擔心的政府“違約”時,他們想到的不是那位老奶奶(盡管他們應該想到她)。相反,他們擔心的是市場陷入混亂,同時導致所謂的“經(jīng)濟復蘇”果實化為烏有。他們擔心的是如果不能向一、兩名債券持有人支付利息,美國政府就無法繼續(xù)以合理的利率發(fā)行債券。

????Breaching the debt ceiling wouldn't be the end of the world -- at least not right away. If Washington continues to squabble past the October 17th deadline the country could probably hold things together using cash for about a month or so before it had to start making the hard decisions. But if this thing goes on into December, you can just forget about Christmas this year.

????Throughout the recent budget debate in Washington, the Republicans have sworn up and down that they would not use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip to win concessions from the Obama administration. Sure, they would shut the government down, as they did last week, but they wouldn't allow the U.S. to default on its commitments by refusing to raise the debt limit. But this past weekend, House Speaker John Boehner escalated the budget fight saying on ABC's This Week, that "the votes are not in the House to pass a clean debt limit." He followed up, saying that "the president is risking default by not having a conversation with us." On Tuesday President Obama shot back saying that Senate Democrats have tried to discuss the budget with Republicans 19 times this year but were rejected.

????It is unclear why the Republicans upped the stakes in their long-standing poker game with the Obama administration. It could be a face-saving move by the speaker to get the administration to agree to smaller budget concessions, so that he wouldn't have to walk away totally defeated. Whatever the reason, the mere threat of a U.S. default caused Wall Street to shiver a bit this week, with stocks taking a dive and Treasury yields edging upwards. On Tuesday the VIX volatility index moved above 20, suggesting that the markets have become officially worried.

????It is hard to say for sure what could occur if the government failed to raise the debt limit in time as it has never happened before. Indeed, Congress has successfully voted to raise the debt limit a total of 73 times since it was created in 1917. But with the nation's debt approaching an unsustainably high $17 trillion and with the Republican Party fragmented, the 74th time could be the charm.

????So what happens on October 17th and the government has hit the debt ceiling? The Treasury has $30 billion left in its "checking account" and panic roams the streets. Some believe the Treasury could prioritize its spending to pay the more "important" things first and put off less important payments until the government comes to its senses and raises the debt ceiling. For example it may choose to pay veterans benefits but put off paying active duty troops.

????But who is to say what is more important? Not the Treasury. It has said that it is illegal for them to pick and choose winners and that they wouldn't do it. In any case, it probably couldn't even do it if it wanted to as the government's check writing machine apparently has no way of differentiating who it is paying and when. It's as if you had 80 million automatic debits in your checking account every single day – it would be hard to stop a thousand of them, but millions? One would think that the government would have a more sophisticated payment network but apparently it just works on autopilot. Luckily, interest payments made to those holding Treasury bonds are on a separate payment system, so in theory the government could prioritize those payments over all others. While it might be illegal or unethical to prioritize interest payments over, say, social security checks to the elderly, it would avoid the nation defaulting on its bonds.

????To be sure, the government would technically be in default the second it delays payment to any of its creditors -- whether it be your grandma in Kansas who didn't receive her social security check or the People's Republic of China who didn't receive the interest on its cache of U.S. Treasury bonds. But when Wall Street and the White House say they are worried about a government "default" they aren't thinking about grandma (though they should); rather, they are worried about the markets going haywire and crushing what's left of the so-called "economic recovery." If the U.S. misses an interest payment or two the fear is that the government won't be able to issue more debt at reasonable rates.

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