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中國為什么不會插手美國債務(wù)上限之爭

中國為什么不會插手美國債務(wù)上限之爭

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-10-10
德意志銀行將中國列為美國國債的第三大持有人,僅次于美國民眾和美聯(lián)儲。但中國也不會介入美國的債務(wù)上限之爭。首先,中國不希望美國干涉自己的內(nèi)政,因此它也不會干涉美國內(nèi)政;其次,中國可以采用的手段不多。

????同時,盡管中國持有的美國政府債券可能多得令人難以置信,但中方并沒有多少手段可用。中國政府可以拋售美國國債,但這樣做可能會讓后者的價格一瀉千里,從而導(dǎo)致中國未拋售的那些美國國債貶值。此外,華盛頓智囊機(jī)構(gòu)彼得森國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員尼古拉斯?拉迪認(rèn)為,無論賣掉多少美國國債,中國政府都很難找到替代性的投資對象。由于歐債危機(jī)遲遲得不到化解,中國一直不愿購買歐洲債券。同時,在市場深度和流動性方面,能和美國國債市場匹敵的市場并不多。

????作為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)專家,拉迪還指出,在最壞情況下,也就是如果美國政府確實(shí)違約,中國則可能從長遠(yuǎn)角度出發(fā)而重新估算所購美國國債的價值。而且就在民主、共和兩黨爭論政府債務(wù)問題之際,這種情況或許已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)。近年來,中國一直在設(shè)法改變外匯儲備投資中美國政府債券一家獨(dú)大的局面,以提高回報率同時降低風(fēng)險。《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)的分析數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至今年6月份,中國國家外匯管理局所持外匯資金中,美國政府債券約占35%,而2010年6月份這一數(shù)字為45%。

????如果中國減持美國國債的趨勢繼續(xù)下去,就算未來美國的政府債務(wù)爭端依然存在,若干年后中國可能蒙受的損失也不會像今天這樣巨大。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie??

????And while China may hold incredible amounts of U.S. government debt, it doesn't have much leverage. China could sell off Treasury debt, but then that risks sending bond prices into free fall, lowering the value of whatever Treasuries China may have left. And whatever Treasuries China sells, it will be hard for officials to replace its investments, says Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, the Peterson Institute for International Economics. China has been reluctant to buy European debt amid its own ongoing debt crisis, and there aren't many other markets to turn to that are as deep and liquid as the U.S. Treasury market.

????Lardy, an expert on the Chinese economy, adds that in the worst-case scenario if the U.S. does indeed default the country may re-evaluate its investments in U.S. Treasuries for the long-term. But that may already be happening separate from the Washington debt fight. In recent years, China has been trying to diversify away from U.S. government debt to seek higher returns and reduce risk. As of June, about 35% of the foreign-exchange funds held by China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange were in U.S. government debt, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis, compared with 45% in June 2010.

????If this continues, many years from now if the debt fights in Washington continues, China may have less at stake than today.

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