中國為什么不會插手美國債務上限之爭
????眼看最后期限迫近,美國國會卻遲遲不能決定是提高政府借貸上限,還是去冒違約的風險。在這種情況下,本周中國政府敦促美方迅速采取行動,同時確保中國對美投資的安全。 ????中國是世界第二大經濟體,它向美國傳遞這樣的信息并不讓人感到意外。正如中國財政部副部長朱光耀周一所言,中國是美國最大的海外債權人。 ????中國的外匯儲備規模居全球首位,部分原因是中國政府通過控制人民幣匯率來鼓勵出口。雖然沒有公布具體數字,但中國用了很大一部分外匯儲備來購買美國政府債券。截至今年7月份,中國持有美國國債1.27萬億美元(7.80萬億元人民幣),超過世界上其他任何國家。日本緊隨其后,所持美國國債數量為1.135萬億美元(6.97萬億元人民幣)。 ????德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)認為,倘若有哪個國家應該擔心美國政府可能違約,那就是中國。德銀將中國列為美國第三大債券持有人,僅次于領取社保的美國民眾和美聯儲(U.S. Federal Reserve)。 ????朱光耀稱:“關于債務上限問題,中方要求美方采取切實有效的措施來防止美國國債違約。” ????考慮到中國在美國國債中所占的比重,可以認為中國希望打破美國政府債務上限所引發的僵局。從理論上講,中國政府可以用大量拋售美國國債,進而可能造成后者價格暴跌來威脅美國。但這是個瘋狂的想法,沒有人會真的支持這樣做——至少不會認真地或公開地進行支持,尤其是中國。 ????針對美國債務上限問題,各方都發出了如同末日預言般的警告。其中,中國的表態相對平和,而且類似于2011年7月,也就是上次美國因國會僵局而瀕臨違約險境時中國官方的論調。當時民主、共和兩黨爭執不下,最終造成標普(Standard & Poor's)70年來首次下調美國政府的3A信用評級。 ????據新華社(Xinhua)報道,朱光耀在周一的發言中回顧了2011年美國評級遭到下調時的情況。他表示,希望美方吸取歷史教訓,認識到作為全球第一大經濟體和世界儲備貨幣發行國所應承擔的責任。 ????即使有人盼望中國采取干預措施,中國政府也可能得不償失。目前的局勢很微妙,而中國則會避免過度插手美國政府自己的事務,原因如下:
????原因之一是中國討厭美國對自己的內政指手畫腳,而這也讓中國更不愿意插手美國的政策。美國智囊機構布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)訪問研究員孫云(音譯)指出,隨著民主、共和兩黨談判的進行,選擇支持哪一方會讓中國處于困難境地。更有可能的是,中方可能將兩黨爭執不休視為一個民主政府的特征——2011年,時任美國國務卿的希拉里?克林頓就曾向中國政府做出過這樣的解釋。 |
????As Congress drags its feet against a looming deadline to increase the nation's borrowing limit or risk default, China urged Washington this week to act quickly and ensure the safety of its U.S. investments. ????The message from the world's second-largest economy isn't surprising. As Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao noted on Monday, China is the largest foreign creditor to the U.S. ????The country has the world's largest stockpile of foreign-exchange reserves, partly due to its efforts to encourage exports by holding down the value of its currency, the yuan. China doesn't disclose its holdings, but a chunk of its foreign reserves is invested in U.S. government debt; as of July, the country held $1.27 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. That's more than any country, followed by Japan, which holds $1.135 trillion. ????If anyone should worry about a possible default, it's the Chinese, according to Deutsche Bank. It ranked China third as having the largest holdings of U.S. debt next to recipients of U.S. social security and the U.S. Federal Reserve. ????"On the question of the debt ceiling, the Chinese side feels the U.S. needs to take realistic and resolute steps to ensure against default on the national debt," Zhu said. ????Given China's stake, it's reasonable to think the country is positioned to break the debt-ceiling impasse. Theoretically, China could threaten a large sell-off that could potentially send bond prices into free fall. But that's a crazy idea that nobody is actually supporting -- at least not seriously nor publicly, especially not China. ????Of all the apocalyptic debt ceiling warnings, China's has been relatively muted. It's similar to the tone officials set in July 2011, the last time a stalled Congress pushed the U.S. to the edge of default. The fight eventually led Standard & Poor's to downgrade the U.S. government's AAA credit rating for the first time in 70 years. ????On Monday, Zhu recalled the 2011 downgrade, saying he hoped the U.S. would take a lesson from history and realize its responsibilities as both the world's largest economy and holder of the global reserve currency, according to Xinhua. ????Even if some expect China to intervene, officials likely have more to lose than gain. It's a tricky situation, and China will stay away from meddling too deeply in Washington's problems for a few reasons: ????For one, just as China hates when America criticizes its domestic policies, it makes China more reluctant to intervene in U.S. policies. More than that, choosing which party to side with could put China in a tough spot with negotiations down the road, says Yun Sun, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. If anything, the Chinese likely view the political wrangling in Washington as symptomatic of a Democratic government, as then U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rationalized it to China in 2011. |