????過去，政府官員總是將安撫市場視為己任。不過，這都是過去的事了。上周，美國總統奧巴馬和美國財長雅各布?盧均表示，他們認為華爾街對美國債務上限違約的畏懼之心還不夠。

????目前，大多數華爾街人士看起來仍然賭定圍繞債務上限最終將達成一項交易。但在一些交易席位，違約的可能性正在開始滲入。沒人知道違約意味著什么，但每個人都知道結果會很糟糕。

????交易員認為違約可能導致美國金融體系大坍塌，或者至少造成災難性場面，下面是這場危機可能的演變方式。

????Government officials used to see it as part of their job to calm the markets. Not anymore. Last week, President Obama and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew both said they thought Wall Street wasn't freaking out enough about the possibility of a debt ceiling default.

????Right now, most of Wall Street appears to be betting that a deal will get done. But on some trading desks, the possibility of a default is starting to sink in. No one knows what it means, but everyone agrees it would be bad.

????Here are some of the ways traders think a default could result in a total collapse of our financial system, or at least a disastrous scenario.

????熱狗困境

????普遍認識是，如果美國政府違約，它將在10月末債務到期時違約。但這可不一定。一些交易員因此十分擔憂。為什么？情形和熱狗一樣。

????加拿大皇家銀行資本市場（RBC Capital markets）的策略師們在上周發布的報告中稱，華爾街的交易系統設計無法將違約的美國國債與其他債券區分開來。這就是華爾街人士所謂的熱狗困境：熱狗里的香腸即便只有一小塊肉是臭的，你也不會吃了。

????“當初市場設立時，根本沒人想過美國國債違約的可能，”RBC美國利率策略主管邁克爾?克洛赫蒂表示。

????我們在這次金融危機的早期就曾經遇到過這樣的問題。當時雖然違約的住房貸款數量相對很少，還是沒人想要按揭債券。這種有毒的債券被絞碎，混入不同債券。然后，這些債券也被絞碎，塞進其他的債券。

????對于以避險投資者為主的美國國債市場，這個問題會更糟。擔心可能卷入違約債券會讓很多避險投資者逃離這個市場。美國債券價格將出現暴跌。克洛赫蒂說：“這種情況會非常、非常糟糕。”?

????The hot dog dilemma

????The general consensus is that if the government defaults it will be on debt coming due in late October. But not necessarily. And that has some traders concerned. Why? Hot dogs.

????Strategists at RBC Capital markets, in a report last week, said Wall Street's trading systems are not set up to sort out defaulted Treasury bonds from the rest. This is what Wall Streeters call the hot dog dilemma: Even if a small portion of the meat going into a frank is funky, you won't eat it.

????"When markets were set up, no one really ever contemplated the Treasury defaulting," says Michael Cloherty, who is the head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC.

????We ran into this problem in the early days of the financial crisis. Even though relatively few home loans had defaulted, no one wanted mortgage bonds. The toxic debt had been ground up and mixed into various bonds. And those bonds had been ground up and stuffed into other bonds.

????The problem could be worse in the Treasury market, which is generally made up of risk-averse investors. The fear of being stuck with a defaulted bond might cause many of those investors to run from the market altogether. U.S. debt prices would plunge. "It could be really, really bad," says Cloherty.