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美聯儲考慮曲線退出經濟刺激行動

美聯儲考慮曲線退出經濟刺激行動

Stephen Gandel 2013-09-27
美聯儲正在考慮采用華爾街方式來退出量化寬松政策:美聯儲把美國國債作為擔保品抵押給銀行,銀行為美聯儲提供隔夜資金,獲得收益,美聯儲借此回籠市場上流通的貨幣,推高利率。但業內人士擔心,這種方式可能導致影子銀行體系膨脹。

????另外一個擔憂是,美聯儲利用回購市場可能形成擠出效應,影響到通用電氣(General Electric)和其他依賴貨幣市場融資的公司。為了與美聯儲爭奪資金,大公司或許不得不為自己的短期貸款支付更高的利率。當然,這正是美聯儲的目的。美聯儲正在試圖提高利率。但隨著美聯儲借入這么龐大的資金,大公司貸款利率的快速增長可能超出預期。結果將市場從一個人為矯正

????“美聯儲沖進回購市場,希望能修復量化寬松產生的問題。結果是在越來越多的市場中,推動價格的是美聯儲,而并不是投資者。我們將喪失正常的市場價格發現體系,”市場策略師詹姆斯?比安科說。“美聯儲官員會說,這些擔憂用錯了地方,但他們總是這么說。”

????當然,美聯儲延遲逐步退出計劃意味著我們可能要等待更長的時間,才能看到美聯儲真正推高利率。因此,現在還沒有什么好擔心的。但如果美聯儲遲遲不停止刺激措施,等待的時間越長,將來就越有可能我們最終還是得擔心這個問題。(財富中文網)

????Another concern is that the Fed's use of the repo market might crowd out General Electric (GE) and other large companies that rely on money market funds for borrowing. Big corporations might have to pay a higher interest rate for their short-term loans to compete with the Fed. That, of course, is the point. The Fed is trying to raise interest rates. But with the Fed borrowing so much, borrowing rates for big companies could shoot up more than expected. The result is a market that's jumping from one artificial correction to another.

????"The Fed is jumping into the repo market to fix problems that were caused by quantitative easing. What you get is more and more markets where prices are not being set by investors but by the Fed. We are losing the market's normal price discovery system," says market strategist James Bianco. "Fed officials will say these concerns are misplaced, but they always say that."

????Of course, the fact that the Fed put off tapering means that it will be longer until the Fed actually raises interest rates. So there is nothing to worry about, yet. But the longer Fed waits before calling off its stimulus efforts, the more likely it is that we will have to worry about it someday.

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