????普遍預期不該出現這么大的偏差。學術界有些措手不及，沒辦法說清楚為什么這項數據會這么低迷，這么不理想。歐洲股市立即遭到賣盤打壓，但大多數市場都處于困惑狀態，這種情緒一直延續到了上周五。

????那么為什么會出現這樣的情況呢？進一步分析表明，歐元區最大的成員國德國當月工業產值跌幅達到了令人恐懼的2.3%。德國是歐元區規模最大的經濟體，德國工業產值的急劇滑坡對整體數據下跌產生了極大影響?？春脷W元的人曾斷言，德國將帶領歐洲擺脫衰退的陰影。但情況似乎并非如此，至少目前不是這樣。

????另一陣營的成員相信，真正的增長將來自那些遭到重創的成員國，也就是所謂的歐元區外圍國家。但就拿愛爾蘭來說，歐洲陷入危機后它一直被歐盟和投資者奉為轉折的曙光，而且一直在鼓舞著后者的士氣。然而，7月份愛爾蘭工業產值減少了8.7%，令人感到震驚。葡萄牙的工業產值也下降了3.2%，而第二季度時，葡萄牙的GDP增長率還位居歐元區17國之首。

????更糟糕的是，工業產值數據所覆蓋的五大類工業產品中，跌幅最大的是資本品。整個歐元區的資本品產值下降了2.2%，表明企業對未來的看法似乎并不像投資者那么有信心，原因是企業并沒有向提高經濟產出所必須的設備進行投資。這樣的信息給看好歐元區的人帶來了特別沉重的打擊，原因是他們認為歐元區企業信心正在增強的依據正是此前不斷上揚的采購經理人指數（PMI）。

????無視這項數據，同時繼續和其他人快樂前行很有誘惑力，但真的這樣做就會犯錯。出現這樣的工業產值數據并非偶然，它們所體現的是一種混亂狀態，是主權債務危機過后歐洲一直未能理順的政治和經濟脈絡。那次危機的根本原因，也就是大量主權債務和低迷的經濟產出到今天依然沒有改變。實際上，主權債務水平依然高得離譜，整個歐元區的失業率也在繼續小幅攀升。包括法國和意大利在內，一些歐元區國家的預算赤字仍然遠遠高于GDP 的3%。也就是說，這些債臺高筑的國家還在繼續舉債，這讓它們成了風險較大的投資對象。如果這些國家的政府正在設法扭轉這種趨勢，出現這樣的情況還可以理解，但他們并沒有這樣做。實際上，這兩種因素正在讓局勢不斷惡化。

????炒作歐元區題材是件很吸引人的事。今年第二季度歐元區GDP上升了0.3%，這是連續六個季度出現令人郁悶的負增長之后歐元區經濟首次實現反彈。但歐洲股市隨后上漲過猛，股指創下新高的動力純粹是投機，與經濟毫無關系。

????歐洲依然重病纏身，有充足的數據可以證明這一點。工業產值下跌表明結構性問題仍然在妨礙這片大陸擺脫困境。歐洲也許能非常好地解決自己的經濟和政治問題，從而變得比以往更為強大——但很難相信短期內就會出現這樣的局面。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie???

????This sort of error in consensus isn't supposed to happen to such a massive degree. Academics were caught off guard and couldn't truly explain why the number was so low and so off. There was an immediate knee-jerk sell-off in European equities but the sentiment on most trading desks was that of confusion, which has carried over into Friday's trading.

????So how did this happen? A deeper look into the numbers shows that Germany, the eurozone's largest member, posted a terrible 2.3% decline for the month. Being the eurozone's largest economy, its sharp decline contributed greatly to the overall negative number. But euro boosters claim that Germany is supposedly leading the continent out of recession. This, at least at the moment, appears not to be the case.

????There is another camp that believes that the real growth will come from those countries that were beaten down, the so-called peripheral eurozone nations. But Ireland, which has been held up by the EU and investors as the inspirational turnaround story of the crisis, saw its industrial production fall a mind-blowing 8.7%. That was followed by Portugal, which experienced the strongest growth in GDP among all 17 members of the eurozone during the second quarter, posting a 3.2% decline.

????It gets worse. Of all the five categories of industrial production surveyed, the one that experienced the largest decrease was capital goods, down 2.2% across the zone. This decline shows that businesses aren't as confident in the future as investors seem to be as they aren't investing in the tools necessary to increase economic output. European bulls took this information particularly hard as they had relied on a firming of the purchasing managers index (PMI) to justify their belief that confidence among businesses in the eurozone was going up.

????It is tempting to disregard this report and continue up the happy mountain with the rest of the herd, but to do so would be a mistake. These industrial production numbers aren't a fluke, they are indicative of the confusion and the political and economic disarray that continues to haunt the continent in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis. The underlying causes of that crisis, namely, high sovereign debt and weak economic output, remain in full force today. Indeed, sovereign debt levels remain off the scale and unemployment continues to inch upward across the board. Several eurozone nations, including France and Italy, continue to run budget deficits well in excess of 3%. That means they are adding to already massive debt loads, thus making them a riskier bet. That would be understandable if their governments were doing something to reverse this trend but they aren't. Indeed, both are making things worse.

????It is tempting to bet on the eurozone. The recent 0.3% bump in GDP during the second quarter was the first such increase after six depressing quarters of negative growth. But the subsequent rally in the European markets have gone too far with new highs based solely on speculation, not economic fact.

????Europe is still very sick and there is plenty of data proving it. The decrease in industrial production shows that the continent's structural issues continue to hold it back from the brink. Europe may very well solve its economic and political problems and emerge stronger than ever – but it's hard to see that happening anytime soon.