????以歐洲經濟強勁復蘇為題材進行炒作的投資者可能需要重新考慮一下的策略。

????工業產值出人意料地大幅下跌，再加上失業率居高不下，表明歐洲經濟尚未擺脫困境。各個國家和整個歐盟的政策都欠妥，政府也缺乏領導力，這些依然影響著歐洲大陸再度崛起的能力。從本質上講，歐洲的問題事關生死，需要各級政府做出果斷而徹底的改變，以確保經濟實現有力而持久的反彈。除非歐洲領導人愿意通過必要、但艱難的調整來讓局勢恢復正常，否則歐洲經濟將繼續滑坡。

????華爾街和倫敦方面對歐洲的看法發生了巨大變化。今年第二季度歐洲經濟稍有起色，此后，基金經理已將數十億美元、英鎊和歐元投入到了歐洲市場。他們盼望著歐洲經濟能像有些人所相信的那樣發生重大轉折，從而讓他們獲利。

????情況確實如此。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的研究結果顯示，以養老基金和共同基金為首的美國投資者今年上半年共向歐洲股市投入了約650億美元（4004億元人民幣）資金，達到36年來的最高水平。

????當然，這些資金流入歐洲并不都是因為投資者對歐洲經濟的增長前景充滿期待。部分資金來自于那些慌忙從新興市場撤資的基金經理。今年新興市場的表現一直不那么火爆，這些基金經理又把資金轉移到了更為成熟的市場。

????但不管怎樣，大量主動進入歐洲的資金都相信歐洲市場將出現一波重大行情。五年前的9月份，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒閉，但美國股市在短短六個月后就急劇反彈，許多錯失了這次良機的投資經理至今仍然在深深自責。在那段黑暗的日子里，有些基金冒險將大筆資金投入美國金融板塊。隨后兩年中，美國政府向美國銀行體系注入了巨額資金，這些基金因此而賺得盆滿缽滿。美國經濟復蘇的速度遠遠超過許多人的預期，也超過了傳統經濟指標所體現的水平。企業開始大量盈利后，這些經濟指標在很長一段時間里還處于低迷狀態。

????由于恐懼而錯過重大行情很難讓人接受。畢竟，就像人們常說的那樣，“不入虎穴焉得虎子”。對吧？考慮到今年有這么多的資金流入歐洲，人們可能會認為這樣做萬無一失——但情況當然并非如此。有些人相信歐元區17國正在全面復蘇，而實際上這種觀點看上去越來越像一個偽命題。

????上周公布的歐元區7月份工業產值環比下跌了1.5%，讓歐洲市場普遍倒吸了一口涼氣。之前人們普遍預期7月份工業產值將和6月份持平，也就是說大家都錯了，而且錯的離譜。

????Investors betting on a strong economic recovery in Europe may need to rethink their strategy.

????Steep and surprising declines in industrial production, along with continued high unemployment, show that the continent's economy is still stuck in the mud. Bad policy and a lack of leadership on both the national and EU level, continues to harm the continent's ability to get back up on its feet. Europe's troubles are existential in nature and require bold and sweeping changes at all levels of government to ensure a strong and lasting economic recovery. Until Europe's leaders are willing to make the tough changes necessary to get things back up and running properly, the continent's economy will continue to degrade.

????There has been a sharp change of sentiment on Wall Street and in the City of London towards Europe. Ever since the continent showed a smidgen of positive economic growth in the second quarter of the year, money managers have been pouring billions of dollars, pounds and euros into European investments on the hopes of cashing in on what some believe could be a major economic turnaround.

????Indeed, investors in the U.S., led by major pension and mutual funds, have invested some $65 billion in European equities during the first half of the year, the highest such dollar amount in 36 years, according to research from Goldman Sachs.

????To be sure, not all that money has flowed into Europe because investors are keen on the continent's growth prospects. Some of it has come from managers who have been frantically pulling their cash out of emerging market investments, which haven't done so hot this year, and dumping it in more mature markets.

????Nevertheless, a great deal of that cash has moved into Europe intentionally on the belief that the markets there are set for a major rally. Many portfolio managers are still kicking themselves for missing the sharp recovery in U.S. equities that took place just six months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers five years ago this month. Those funds that took the risk and bet big on U.S. financial stocks during those dark days reaped massive returns over the next two years as the U.S. government shoveled tons of cash into its banking system. The U.S. economy recovered far faster than many had anticipated and outpaced traditional economic indicators that remained sour well after companies started pumping out strong profits.

????It is tough missing out on a major rally because of fear. After all, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the bold," right? Given the amount of money that has flowed into the continent this year one would think that it was a sure bet -- but, of course, it isn't. Indeed, the economic recovery that some believe is taking place across the 17-member eurozone is looking more and more like a sham.

????Last week, European markets collectively gasped in horror when it was revealed that industrial production across the eurozone for July fell 1.5% compared to the previous month. The consensus was for a flat number, meaning that the consensus was off -- way off.