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意大利是時候跟貝盧斯科尼說再見了

意大利是時候跟貝盧斯科尼說再見了

Cyrus Sanati 2013-09-11
為了避免休眠的歐洲主權債務危機死灰復燃,意大利必須罷免參議員貝盧斯科尼,徹底跟這位前總理說再見。貝盧斯科尼雖然已經從總理的位置上退了下來,但依然對意大利的政局有著舉足輕重的影響力。只有徹底擺脫他的影響,組建一個技術專家掛帥的新政府,意大利經濟才能重回正軌。

????例如,萊塔最近被迫取消一項有爭議的首套房房產稅,否則將面臨貝盧斯科尼的政黨撤離聯合政府的風險。取消這項明智的稅收來源將使意大利的預算損失30億歐元,造成巨大的財務窟窿。由于這項稅費的取消,歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)擔心意大利將無法完成它本年度的財政目標,因此正在懇請羅馬重新權衡這個決定。

????但房產稅問題還只是九牛一毛。如果意大利能收回這上面損失的稅收當然挺好,但對解決意大利的債務問題仍然是杯水車薪。盡管如此,通過取消這項稅收,意大利給出了一個信號——它并不真的在意達到財政目標,因為這個舉動使它平衡預算、減少債務的長征變得更加困難。

????另一方面,萊塔的左傾政黨還要依靠來自意大利各類工會的大力支持。因此,只要他掌權,推行任何實質性的勞動力市場改革舉措的幾率似乎都顯得渺茫。而改革意大利糟糕的勞動法被視為是讓這個國家重回穩健財政之路的一個必要條件,如果不進行改革,意大利面臨新一輪財政危機只是時間問題。

????但如果意大利擺脫政治混亂,允許一個未經選舉的技術型政府接管,至少將必要的改革措施實施到位,它將變得更加強大。上一屆政府在2011年垮臺時已經出現過這種局面。當時,經濟學家馬里奧?蒙蒂獲得了國家的管理權,而且實施了一系列能夠穩定意大利的艱難改革。雖然這些改革措施沒有一些更加保守的經濟學家希望的那么有力,但它們仍然給市場帶來了希望——意大利正走在正軌上,有一天它能減少債務。

????此后蒙蒂也轉變成了政治家,今年年初他成立了自己的中立派議員人民選擇黨(Civic Choice),而且成為了意大利政壇上少數孤獨理智的聲音之一。當被問到他對萊塔取消房產稅的想法時,蒙蒂說這么做“軟弱無能、膽小怕事”。這才是意大利現在需要的領導力。這樣才能最終擺脫貝盧斯科尼和這個無能的聯合政府。(財富中文網)

????譯者:默默??

????For example, Letta was recently forced to cancel a controversial property tax on first homes, or risk having Berlusconi's party pull out of the coalition. The loss of this sensible revenue source will leave a massive, 3 billion-euro hole in the Italian budget. The EU and IMF are concerned that Italy will not be able to meet its fiscal targets for the year as a result of this move and are imploring Rome to reconsider.

????But the property tax debacle is just a drop in the bucket. While it would be nice for Italy to recoup that lost revenue, it will hardly move the needle when it comes to fixing Italy's debt problems. Nevertheless, by withdrawing it, Italy is sending a signal that it doesn't really give a damn about getting back on fiscal targets as the move makes it that much harder to balance the budget and begin the long march to paying down its debt.

????On the flip side, Letta's left-leaning party counts on the nation's various unions for a great deal of support, so any chance of meaningful labor reform seems doubtful as long as Letta is at the helm. Reforming Italy's terrible labor laws is seen as a necessary component to getting the country back on the road to fiscal soundness -- without it, it will just be a matter of time before the country faces yet another fiscal crisis.

????But out of the political chaos, Italy could emerge stronger if an unelected technocrat government is allowed to take control -- at least until necessary reforms are put in place. This occurred when the last Italian government fell at the end of 2011. Economist Mario Monti was given the reins and he was able to put in place a number of tough reforms needed to stabilize Italy. While they weren't as strong as some of the more conservative economists would have liked, they still gave the market hope that the country was on its way to someday paying down its debt.

????Monti has since morphed into a politician with the founding of his own centrist Civic Choice party earlier this year and remains one of the lone sane voices in Italian politics. When asked what he thought of Letta's decision to withdraw the property tax, Monti said it was, "gutless and spineless." That is the sort of leadership Italy needs right now. Good riddance to Mr. Berlusconi and this dysfunctional coalition.

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