????長期以來被一直被視為全球經濟寵兒的新興市場近幾周大幅下跌。資金外流拉低了印度、印尼等地的股票、債券和貨幣價值。已得到充分探討的巴西問題正處于爆發(fā)階段。多年來一直很有保障的中國經濟增長也出現(xiàn)了不確定性。

????摩根士丹利投資管理（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）新興市場團隊負責人魯奇爾?夏爾馬早就預見到了這些情況。很長一段時間以來，高盛（Goldman Sachs）前新興市場策略分析師吉姆?奧尼爾的觀點一直壓制著夏爾馬的悲觀看法。今年早些時候離職的奧尼爾一直堅定地看好中國市場。夏爾馬則在去年初出版的著作《Breakout Nations》中指出，中國和其他發(fā)展中國家很快就會取代西方國家而成為左右世界經濟的力量是個偽命題。上周三，夏爾馬在接受本刊采訪時預測了中國、巴西等市場的前景。他說，他認為新興市場遭到打壓的局面不會很快結束。

不看好新興市場的人很少，而你一直是其中的一員。看到自己的可怕預言變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實讓你覺得高興嗎？

????我知道自己態(tài)度悲觀，但只是相對而言。2009-2010年期間，對新興市場的樂觀看法達到了瘋狂的程度。當時人們普遍認為新興市場將崛起，而西方國家會永遠處于滑坡狀態(tài)。我所看到的則是基本上無人理會巴西和印度等地存在的嚴重的結構性問題。實際情況是有些新興市場國家將表現(xiàn)良好，另一些則不然。我認為市場已經開始意識到了這一點。

所以不光是因為美聯(lián)儲？

????美聯(lián)儲是造成這次市場大跌的最直接原因。有些國家的經常項目一直是逆差，這就是說它們依賴于海外資金，而最近這些市場的表現(xiàn)最差。但問題不光是流動性，還包括中國信貸的無節(jié)制增長。它可能是經濟史上規(guī)模最大的信貸擴張。不過，目前這種信貸擴張已經接近尾聲。中國是新興市場中的巨無霸。所以，隨著中國經濟放慢腳步，所有從中國經濟發(fā)展中受益的國家也將放緩。

但中國經濟不是已經出現(xiàn)了反彈跡象嗎？

????我的看法是中國經濟增速正在放慢到5%-6%的樣子，這種趨勢大概會在明年出現(xiàn)。這不是硬著陸，但我認為市場走勢還沒有體現(xiàn)出這一點。

巴西的問題有多大的實際影響？

????我看巴西、俄羅斯或南非的角度不同。今后3-5年它們的經濟增長率將超過美國，但真正令人失望的是這些國家的人均收入大概是美國的四分之一。巴西非常依賴大宗商品市場的繁榮，而且巴西政府一直在用這些意外之財來取悅公眾，而不是把它們用在非?；镜膶用?，也沒有投入到能真正持久發(fā)揮有利作用的基礎設施上?，F(xiàn)在大宗商品市場正在降溫，而我卻看不到新的經濟增長點。

????In recent weeks, emerging markets, long seen as the darlings of the global economy, have tumbled. Cash is flowing out, pushing down the values of stocks, bonds, and currencies in India, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Brazil's problems have been well documented and are boiling over. China's long guaranteed growth is unsure.

????Ruchir Sharma, who is the head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's emerging markets team, saw it all coming. For a long time, Sharma's bearish calls were overshadowed by Goldman Sachs's Jim O'Neill, the former emerging market strategist and China perma-bull who left the bank earlier this year. But in his book, Breakout Nations, which came out early last year, Sharma said the notion that China and other developing nations would soon overtake the West as the drivers of the world economy was bogus. On Wednesday, Sharma talked to Fortune about what's next for China, Brazil, and others. The Morgan Stanley (MS) strategist says he thinks the emerging market selloff won't end anytime soon.

You have long been one of the few emerging market bears. Are you pleased that your dire predictions are coming true?

????I think I was bearish, but only relatively. The optimism around emerging markets reached crazy levels back in 2009 and 2010. There was this general view that all the emerging markets will rise, and that the West was in permanent decline. What I saw was deep structural problems in Brazil and India and elsewhere that were largely being ignored. The reality is that some emerging countries will do well, and others won't, and I think the market is starting to realize that.

So it's not just the Fed?

????That is the proximate cause of what has caused the current turmoil. And you have seen that the countries that are running a current account deficit, meaning they rely on foreign capital, have done the worst recently. But liquidity is not the only issue. We also have had this massive credit binge in China, perhaps the largest in economic history. That's coming to an end. And China is the 800-pound gorilla in the emerging markets. So as China slows, all the countries that have benefited from it will slow as well.

But aren't there signs that China is rebounding?

????My view is that China is moving to a slower growth plane, say 5%-6%, and that it will move to that trend line in the next year or so. That's not a hard landing, but I don't think the market has priced that in.

How real are Brazil's problems?

????I don't see Brazil, or Russia or South America for that matter, growing faster than the U.S. over the next three to five years. And that's really disappointing because the per-capita income in those countries is about one quarter of what it is in the U.S. Brazil relied heavily on the commodities boom, and they misspent the windfall on things that kept their citizens happy but at a very basic level, and not on infrastructure that would have provided a real, lasting benefit. Now what you have is the commodity boom abating, and I don't see where the new growth comes from.