????冰島存疑的經濟復蘇勢必將大白天下，而這可能會給歐洲其他國家帶來嚴重后果。自2008年以來，這個小島國一直得以規避全局性的經濟崩盤，這在很大程度上是因為冰島政府實施的資本管制使得其本幣免于崩潰。與此同時，這個國家的“僵尸”銀行都設法避免了徹底倒閉，因為它們的拖延戰術使它們與債權人清算擦肩而過。

????但是，冰島政府和銀行在本地人口與外部元素之間架設的隔離墻終于開始坍塌。不幸的是，目前冰島在自救方面已經心有余而力不足，它最終將不得不面對殘酷現實。但更令市場擔憂的是，新一輪冰島貨幣危機在未來幾個月內可能會對整個歐洲產生什么樣的影響？畢竟，2008年冰島轟然崩盤正是讓歐洲陷入債務危機的動因，因為它暴露了歐洲地區銀行系統的弱點。冰島再度崩盤可以輕易重新點燃投資者的擔憂情緒，從而讓歐洲大陸再度陷入恐慌。

????經濟繁榮時期的冰島看上去不像一個主權國家，而更像是一只對沖基金。冰島的三家主要銀行過去在全球各地收購資產，最高峰的時候持有資產規模約為其年度國內生產總值（GDP）的10倍。它們之所以能夠吸引到如此巨額的資金，主要是因為它們向以英國人和荷蘭人為主的儲戶承諾豐厚的投資回報率——往往是這些海外儲戶所在國投資回報率的數倍。這些銀行曾一度能兌現這個諾言，因為它們可以低價借入以某一貨幣計價的資金，然后以其他更高利率貨幣計價的資金借出。這還使得它們能夠向本國居民借出數十億冰島克朗，助長了肆無忌憚的房地產泡沫。

????當然，這一切最終都轟然倒塌。這些推動銀行利潤飆升的套利交易消失，而大量的房產貸款也變為不良貸款。冰島的經濟開始崩潰，陷入一個貨幣貶值與惡性通脹主導的破壞性螺旋，險些使冰島克朗兌其他貨幣匯率墮入萬劫不復的境地，居民儲蓄也差點一夜間變成廢紙。

????冰島政府迅速做出反應，在國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund，簡稱：IMF）的幫助下，推出了資本控制措施限制資金出入境。此舉保住了冰島克朗幣值。與此同時，IMF借給冰島近50億美元的穩定基金用于紓困。這筆資金可能聽上去并不多，但它實際上已經超過冰島GDP的三分之一。

????現在冰島經濟似乎已經出現反彈，增長速度超過了大部分其他歐洲國家。失業率也從2009年的峰值8%大幅下降到如今的4%左右。與此同時，國內消費者信心也與日俱增，而旅游業也出現不斷增長的勢頭。旅游業是冰島兩大產業之一，另一大產業是漁業。所有的一切似乎表明，冰島已經復蘇，至少大多數經濟學家乃至IMF都這么認為。

????The inevitable unmasking of Iceland's dubious economic recovery could have severe consequences for the rest of Europe. Since 2008, the small island nation has been able to avoid an all-out economic meltdown thanks largely to government-imposed capital controls that have kept its currency from imploding. At the same time, the nation's zombie banks have managed to avoid total collapse thanks to delay tactics that have allowed them to avoid settling with their creditors.

????But the walls the government and its banks erected to shield its population from the outside elements have finally started to crumble. Unfortunately, there is not much Iceland can do to save itself at this point; it will need to face the music eventually. The bigger concern is what impact another Icelandic currency crisis could have on Europe in the months ahead. After all, Iceland's spectacular collapse in 2008 helped set the European debt crisis in motion as it exposed weaknesses in the region's banking system. Another Icelandic meltdown could easily reignite investor fears, leading to yet another panic on the continent.

????During the boom years Iceland was run more like a hedge fund than a sovereign nation. Its three main banks accumulated assets from around the globe that at its height equaled around 10 times the nation's total annual economic output, or GDP. They were able to attract this enormous amount of capital by promising depositors, mostly in the U.K. and the Netherlands, returns on their cash that were multiples of what they could receive back home. For a time, the banks were able to deliver on their promises as they borrowed cheaply in one currency and lent in others that carried higher interest rates. This allowed them to lend billions of Icelandic Krona to their own population, fueling a property bubble of unmitigated proportion.

????Eventually, of course, it all came crashing down. The carry trade that fueled bank profits disappeared, and a great deal of those property loans turned sour. Iceland's economy started to crash, falling into a destructive devaluation-inflation led spiral that threatened to obliterate the value of the Icelandic Krona relative to other currencies and wipe out the savings of its citizens overnight.

????The Icelandic government responded quickly, and with the help of the International Monetary Fund, introduced capital controls to restrict the flow of money in and out of the country. This preserved the value of its currency. At the same time, the IMF lent Iceland nearly $5 billion to stabilize itself. That may not seem like a lot of money, but it is actually equal to more than a third of Iceland's GDP.

????Iceland's economy appears as if it has rebounded, growing faster than most of its European cousins. Unemployment has fallen sharply from a peak of 8% in 2009 to around half that today. At the same time, consumer confidence in the country is growing, as is tourism, which is one of the two major industries in Iceland, the other being fishing. All in all it seems that Iceland has recovered, at least that is what most economists and even the IMF say.