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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)寄望以時(shí)間換空間

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)寄望以時(shí)間換空間

Mohamed A. El-Erian 2013-08-02
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)傳遞的信息是,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在持續(xù)回暖,但失業(yè)率仍處于高位,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不溫不火。不過(guò),關(guān)于"縮減"量化寬松政策的力度和未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的走向,他們沒(méi)有提供更多信息。跟歐洲一樣,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前在政策層面上持觀望態(tài)度,等待9月份各方情況進(jìn)一步明朗化之后再采取行動(dòng)。

????金融市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了5、6月份令人不安的動(dòng)蕩之后,美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Federal Reserve)周三選擇維持市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定。因此,兩個(gè)(如果不是三個(gè))間接需要作出的決策被推遲到了9月份。它帶來(lái)了一個(gè)問(wèn)題,那就是,當(dāng)前追求的市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定能否延續(xù),將來(lái)會(huì)不會(huì)帶來(lái)更大的不穩(wěn)定?

????周三下午,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在結(jié)束了兩天的政策會(huì)議后,主要告訴了我們?nèi)拢好绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)回暖,但失業(yè)率仍處于高位,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不溫不火;鑒于現(xiàn)實(shí)依然需要“高度融通的貨幣政策立場(chǎng)”,央行政策制定者們預(yù)計(jì)將長(zhǎng)期保持政策利率低位;經(jīng)濟(jì)前景仍然不確定,包括通脹和通縮的平衡問(wèn)題。

????更重要的是央行決策者們決定這次會(huì)議決定暫不處理的問(wèn)題。其中兩點(diǎn)很突出:關(guān)于"縮減"美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)購(gòu)買市場(chǎng)證券的規(guī)模和未來(lái)政策走向,他們沒(méi)有提供更多信息。

????可以理解,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為什么決定暫不討論這些問(wèn)題。

????5、6月份提出美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擬縮減債券購(gòu)買規(guī)模后出現(xiàn)的極度市場(chǎng)錯(cuò)配說(shuō)明,投資者對(duì)未來(lái)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)從“協(xié)力”增長(zhǎng)向“真正的”增長(zhǎng)有序轉(zhuǎn)換沒(méi)什么信心。因此,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持力度縮減被視為操之過(guò)急,具有破壞性。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員很可能會(huì)在下一次政策會(huì)議上討論這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題。而且,他們希望如果這樣觀望到9月份,投資者的擔(dān)心會(huì)被更多印證美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在接近“逃離速度”的積極數(shù)據(jù)所抵消。

????如果這個(gè)的愿望成為現(xiàn)實(shí),它也會(huì)推動(dòng)未來(lái)政策走向的演進(jìn)(這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)高度實(shí)驗(yàn)性政策立場(chǎng)的另一項(xiàng)復(fù)雜構(gòu)成因素)。因此,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望能提升循序漸進(jìn)地退出實(shí)驗(yàn)性政策的概率。

????等到9月份時(shí),我們或許還能更清楚地知道,誰(shuí)將接替本?伯南克掌管這個(gè)全球?qū)嵙ψ顝?qiáng)大的央行。投資者不應(yīng)過(guò)度關(guān)注關(guān)于下屆美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席人選(薩默斯-耶倫)的報(bào)道,而要看重這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門的政策延續(xù)性,因?yàn)樗袚?dān)著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的決策重任。

????所有這些使得下屆美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策會(huì)議尤其重要和棘手。而且,似乎從9月份起,不確定性將開始慢慢消除。

????大家記得歐洲嗎?歐洲各項(xiàng)重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融決定——不管是國(guó)家層面,還是地區(qū)層面的——事實(shí)上都已暫緩,靜待9月份德國(guó)大選的結(jié)果。

????和美國(guó)一樣,大西洋對(duì)岸的執(zhí)行焦點(diǎn)是避免任何可能導(dǎo)致觸礁的事情。結(jié)果,各國(guó)和歐元區(qū)層面都推遲了行動(dòng)。

????因此,讓我們暫且享受這段時(shí)期的平靜吧。讓我們期待隨后的事態(tài)發(fā)展將會(huì)降低(而不是放大)倒退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????穆罕默德?艾爾-俄萊恩是太平洋投資管理公司的首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)席首席投資官。???

????After the discomforting volatility of May and June, the Federal Reserve opted today for market tranquility. As a result, two (if not three) consequential decisions are now pushed to September -- raising the question of whether the current pursuit of market calm will develop deeper roots in the interim or, instead, come at the cost of greater instability down the road.

????Here are the three main things that the Fed told us this afternoon at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting: The U.S. economy continues to improve, though at a moderate pace with unemployment still too high; given the continued need for a "highly accommodative stance of monetary policy," central bankers expect to keep policy interest rates low for a long time; and the economic outlook remains uncertain, including the balance between inflation and disinflation.

????More significant is what central bankers decided not to address this time around. Two elements stand out here: They refrained from providing additional information on their inclination to "taper" Fed purchases of market securities; and they abstained from significantly evolving their forward policy guidance.

????It is understandable that the Fed decided to hold back on these issues.

????The intense market dislocations that followed the May/June mentions of Fed tapering suggest that investors were yet to be sufficiently convinced on the prospects for an orderly handoff from "assisted" growth to "genuine" growth. As such, a lessening of Fed support for the economy was viewed as both premature and disruptive.

????It is highly probable that the two issues will be addressed by Fed officials at their next policy meeting. And, by waiting until September, they hope that investor apprehension will be countered by additional data releases confirming that the U.S. economy is approaching "escape velocity."

????Such an outcome, were it to materialize, would also facilitate the next evolution of the forward guidance strategy (the other particularly complex component of the institution's highly experimental policy stance). As such, the Fed hopes to enhance the probability of an orderly and gradual reduction in the institution's experimental policies.

????In September we may also have greater clarity on who will succeed Ben Bernanke at the helm of the world's most powerful central bank. Accordingly, rather than be mesmerized by the Summers-Yellen media circus, investors could have a better handle on policy continuity at the one economic institution that has stepped up to its policymaking responsibilities in the U.S.

????All this makes the next Fed policy meeting a particularly important and tricky one. And it is not as if September was uncertainty-light to begin with.

????Remember Europe? Virtually every key economic and financial decision there -- whether national or regional -- has been put on hold awaiting the outcome of German elections in September.

????As with the U.S., the operational focus on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean is on avoiding anything that could rock the boat. And, again, the result is to postpone important national and eurozone-wide initiatives.

????So, let's enjoy this period of tranquility. And let's hope that subsequent developments end up minimizing, rather than amplifying, the risk of a backdraft.

????Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.

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