????巴西的大規模抗議活動或許已有所緩和，但動蕩局勢遠未終結。上周早些時候，在里約熱內盧足球賽場（巴西-西班牙比賽）外動用催淚瓦斯便是明證。這樣的動蕩局面可能會讓早已脆弱不堪的巴西金融市場形勢更為嚴峻。這場由于上個月巴士票價上調引發的抗議潮讓巴西政府為緩解國際投資者輪番撤離新興市場的過程中可能出現的災難性資本外逃而做的努力大打折扣。

????如果巴西政府不迅速采取行動化解躁動的民憤情緒，同時向投資界證明該國將恪守負責任的政府支出，巴西可能會因此陷入嚴重的經濟滑坡。

????巴西人大多安于現狀。他們經歷過獨裁統治、腐敗政府和劇烈的經濟震蕩，并沒有多少普遍的怨言。是的，這個國家也是最晚取締奴隸制的西方國家，而且取締奴隸制并不是因為大范圍的民眾起義，而是因為時間使然。

????但巴西在過去幾年已經發生了翻天覆地的變化。如今近2億的巴西人比在巴西短暫的歷史上任何時期的巴西人都更加富有，受教育情況也更好。過去10年，巴西有約4,000萬人口脫離貧困，占總人口比例高達20%。與此同時，高等教育入學人數已經增加了一倍，年輕人口的非文盲比例也已經超過97%。

????這些都是投資者樂于聽到的消息。一個國家人口的富裕程度和受教育程度提高往往會帶動該國各項服務和資產的消費良性增長。它造就了經濟增長螺旋式上升，投資者能夠在各種不同的市場都收獲良好的回報。

????因此，擁有豐富可開采自然資源以及快速增長服務行業的巴西當時是很多投資者熱衷的新興市場，特別是那些專注固定收益的投資者。投資者可以安心地把現金放在這里，收獲遠超他們在歐洲、甚至美國能獲得的回報。

????而且，巴西還是一個擁有相對完善法律體系的民主國家，當時為投資者提供了遠離政治風險的保障，這一點在新興市場經濟體中非常罕見。巴西受到投資者的熱烈歡迎，即使巴西經濟增長在2011-2012年間陷入了停滯，它獲得的外國直接投資額仍然穩定地保持在650億美元左右。人們滿懷希望，相信巴西經濟會反彈。

????但巴西的經濟狀況非但沒有好轉，看起來似乎惡化了。上個月在巴西政府宣布預計經濟增速將進一步下滑后，信用評級機構穆迪（Moody's）和標普（S&P）雙雙調低了巴西的債務評級。巴西國債交易員告訴《財富》雜志（Fortune） 稱，這個消息造成了巴西固定收益市場資本大批外流。彭博社（Bloomberg）的一項分析顯示，今年二季度，美元計價的巴西債券下跌近8%，創下自2002年以來的單季最大跌幅。

????The massive protests in Brazil may have subsided, but the unrest is far from over, as evidenced by the tear gas earlier this week outside the Brazil-Spain soccer game in Rio. The turmoil threatens to exacerbate an already tense situation for the nation's shaky financial markets. The protests, which erupted last month in response to a hike in bus fares, is undermining the Brazilian government's attempt to alleviate a potentially disastrous flight of foreign capital as investors cycle out of emerging markets.

????If the government doesn't move to address the grievances of its restless and frustrated population quickly and prove to the investment community that it is still committed to responsible government spending, then the country could be setting itself up for a severe economic downturn.

????Brazilians rarely like to rock the boat. They have lived through dictatorships, corrupt governments and wild economic swings without much popular dissent. Indeed, this was, after all, the last western nation to ban slavery -- and it didn't come about because of a mass popular uprising, it just happened because it was time.

????But Brazil has changed dramatically in the last few years. Brazilians, now numbering nearly 200 million, are richer and more educated than at any time in the nation's short history. An amazing 20% of the population, around 40 million people, have been lifted out of poverty in the past decade. At the same time, enrollment in higher education has doubled and the nation's literacy rates among youths now tops 97%.

????These are all good things for investors to hear. A richer and more educated population usually leads to a healthy uptick in spending within the country on a variety of services and assets. This creates an upward spiral in economic growth where investors are able to reap healthy returns across a variety of markets.

????As such, with an abundance of exploitable natural resources and a growing service sector, Brazil was the favorite emerging market for many investors, especially those concentrated in fixed income. Investors were able to park their cash with ease and reap returns that well exceeded whatever they could get back in Europe or even in the United States.

????Furthermore, as a legitimate democracy with a somewhat competent legal system, Brazil also offered investors security from political risk, a rarity among emerging market economies. Brazil was so popular that foreign direct investment had held steady at around $65 billion from 2011 to 2012 even though economic growth in the country had stalled. The hope was that Brazil would bounce back.

????But instead of things picking up, Brazil's economy just seems to be getting worse. Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P both downgraded Brazilian debt last month after the government said it was expecting a further slowdown in economic growth. Traders in Brazilian government debt tell Fortune that this is causing a major outflow of capital from Brazil's fixed income markets. As such, dollar-denominated Brazilian bonds are down nearly 8% in the second quarter of this year, the largest such decrease for a single quarter since 2002, according to an analysis by Bloomberg.