????很顯然，從多個層面來看這都是不可持續(xù)的。不過，歐盟提出的一些方案也好不到哪里去。例如，歐盟正在向斯洛文尼亞施壓，要求它盡快售出15家國家控股公司。在這樣一個內(nèi)需正在崩潰的國家里，又有誰肯為那些效率低下、資不抵債的國家控股公司埋單呢？就算會發(fā)生交易，也只會按超低價進(jìn)行，結(jié)果只會雪上加霜了。此話怎講？打個比方，如果一家美資企業(yè)收購了政府的國有控股百貨店梅卡托爾（Mercator），他們必定會對后者進(jìn)行大瘦身。這就意味著要裁員，要裁掉一大批人，也就等于將斯洛文尼亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)往懸崖邊上推。

????要解決斯洛文尼亞的危機(jī)沒有任何捷徑可走。雖然歐盟堅持要求斯洛文尼亞實行國有企業(yè)私有化在理，但是這事急不得，要考慮周全，否則就會進(jìn)一步向腐敗和枉法的方向發(fā)展。看看1995年前后的俄羅斯吧——獨裁者、黑手黨、西方國家的剝削等等，不一而足。

????與此同時，斯洛文尼亞還必須控制政府開支。斯洛文尼亞五月份借到的一大筆資金于本周投入使用，為原來發(fā)行的9億歐元國債（于2011年發(fā)行）進(jìn)行再融資。由于債務(wù)延期時間緊促，斯洛文尼亞將需要越來越多的現(xiàn)金來避免違約。雖然斯洛文尼亞似乎有足夠的現(xiàn)金渡過2013年，但如果經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然沒有抬頭的跡象，那么在2014年清償債務(wù)可能會很艱難。

????可以非常肯定的是，斯洛文尼亞將無法獨自渡過危機(jī)——國家本身或者國內(nèi)銀行最終會需要緊急援助。雖然表面上形勢看似安全，但是可能眨眼功夫就會惡化。雖然斯洛文尼亞不會導(dǎo)致歐盟救助基金破產(chǎn)，不過任何主權(quán)違約，無論是小是大，從來都不是好兆頭。因此，在這里，對形勢的洞察很關(guān)鍵。歐盟越快把控形勢，情況就越好。斯洛文尼亞不必等到?jīng)]有償債能力的時候才想起尋求幫助，它可以隨時開口請求援助。如果斯洛文尼亞等到分奔離析的時候才向歐洲央行求助，可能又會促使投資者擔(dān)心歐元區(qū)崩潰。以往，投資者可以選擇帶上資金去別處投資，而這次則有所不同，他們可能會把資金永遠(yuǎn)撤離歐元區(qū)。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????This is obviously unsustainable on a multitude of levels. But the solutions put forth by the EU aren't any better. For example the EU is pushing Slovenia to quickly sell off 15 state-controlled companies. Who would want to buy an inefficient and insolvent state-controlled company in a country where domestic demand is collapsing? Any transaction would be at fire sale prices, which will only serve to make a bad situation even worse. How? If, say, a U.S. company bought the nation's state-controlled grocer, Mercator, you can bet they will trim a lot of the government fat out. That means layoffs -- massive layoffs. That would send Slovenia's economy crashing.

????There is no easy way to solve Slovenia's crisis. The EU is right to insist on Slovenia privatizing its state-owned industries, but it needs to be done slowly and thoughtfully, or else the country risks becoming even more corrupt and lawless. Think Russia, circa 1995 -- oligarchs, mafias, Western exploitation, etc.

????At the same time, the government must also get control of its own spending. A good chunk of the money Slovenia borrowed in May was used this week to refinance 900 million euros of old state debt, which it issued back in 2011. With a short debt roll schedule, Slovenia will need more and more cash to stay afloat. While the country appears to have enough cash to make it through 2013, making good in 2014 could be a stretch, especially if the economy remains in the toilet.

????It's probably a good bet that Slovenia won't be able to get through this crisis on its own -- the state or its banks will eventually need a bailout. While it may look as if things are safe on the surface, the situation could go from bad to worse in a blink of an eye. To be sure, Slovenia certainly won't bankrupt the EU rescue fund, but a sovereign default, no matter how small, is never a positive indicator. As such, perception here is key, and the faster the EU can control the situation, the better. Slovenia doesn't have to wait to be insolvent to ask for help -- it can do so at anytime. If Slovenia waits to go to the ECB when it is in ruins, investors will again associate dismal failure with the eurozone. But unlike the past, they may choose to take their money and put it elsewhere -- this time, permanently.