????正是這兩個因素造成了市場波動加大，個別細(xì)分市場的流動性失調(diào)。此外，我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)中間商和一些大投資者的風(fēng)險承受能力正在下降。

????它或許只是市場的一種臨時現(xiàn)象。畢竟，日經(jīng)指數(shù)在過去七個月反彈了57%，最近的下跌又能產(chǎn)生什么特殊的影響？而且，美國十年期國債基本保持了去年的幅度，所以國債當(dāng)前的水平有什么奇怪的？

????臨時現(xiàn)象確實是一種可能，但它是可能性最高的解釋嗎？對此，我表示懷疑。相反，市場可能正在發(fā)出更深層次變化的信號。

????我們希望最近的市場變化是代表了我們期待已久的兩個轉(zhuǎn)變：從輔助式增長向真正的由私營行業(yè)引領(lǐng)的增長轉(zhuǎn)變；從以政府購買實現(xiàn)的金融穩(wěn)定向結(jié)構(gòu)穩(wěn)健的穩(wěn)定轉(zhuǎn)變。

????如果這兩種轉(zhuǎn)變得以實現(xiàn)，它將意味著風(fēng)險市場未來將不再依賴央行的高度試驗性政策。相反，日益改善的經(jīng)濟與金融基本面將穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險市場，進(jìn)而穩(wěn)定當(dāng)前人為的價格，同時推動價格進(jìn)一步上漲。

????可問題是，目前的數(shù)據(jù)無法為這種假設(shè)提供充分的支持。

????美國經(jīng)濟正在繼續(xù)恢復(fù)，但經(jīng)濟逃逸速度依然令人難以捉摸。歐洲繼續(xù)處于衰退之中，增長引擎沒有顯示出任何改觀的跡象。日本剛剛宣布促增長的結(jié)構(gòu)改革。中國增長速度放緩。全球環(huán)境這么不穩(wěn)定，因此，其他新興大國（如巴西）也在努力管理各自國家的經(jīng)濟。

????我擔(dān)心，最近的變化并不代表積極的轉(zhuǎn)變，而是代表著投資者對于央行能力和效率的信任正逐漸受到侵蝕。如果這種現(xiàn)象最先出現(xiàn)在日本，并不意外，因為日本面臨一系列艱難的初始條件，而且政策的可信度正處于歷史最低水平。

????如果我的擔(dān)心變成現(xiàn)實，只能期望在未來幾個月內(nèi)，央行在努力恢復(fù)話語權(quán)的時候，能夠更加積極。日本央行和歐洲央行將繼續(xù)推出非常規(guī)政策，而許多人預(yù)測，美聯(lián)儲在即將召開的政策會議上不會對QE3政策實行減速。

????這些額外的措施是否能夠帶動風(fēng)險資本的新一輪強勢反彈，我們?nèi)孕枋媚恳源５幸稽c非常明確，如果沒有穩(wěn)定的增速回升，這些政策將帶來更大的市場波動，甚至威脅央行在更長時期內(nèi)的可信度。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者默罕默德?埃爾-埃里安為美國太平洋投資管理公司CEO兼聯(lián)合首席投資官。

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????Together, these two factors have contributed to higher market volatility and more patchy liquidity in certain market segments. We are also seeing a reduction in risk tolerance among intermediaries and some large investors.

????All this may be nothing more than a market blip. After all, what is particularly special after the recent drops in the Nikkei given that this index has returned 57% in the last seven months? And what is so peculiar about the current level of the 10-year Treasury given that it is still broadly consistent with the range of the last year?

????A blip is certainly a possibility, but I doubt it is the most probable interpretation. Rather, markets may be signaling a deeper shift.

????The hope is that recent market behavior is indicative of two eagerly-anticipated handoffs: from assisted-growth to genuine private-sector led growth; and from purchased financial stability to structurally-sound stability.

????These two shifts, if and when they materialize, would mean that risk markets no longer depend on the highly experimental policies of central banks. Instead, they would be solidly anchored by improving economic and financial fundamentals – which would validate currently-artificial prices and allow them to go higher.

????The problem is that recent data do not sufficiently support this hypothesis as yet.

????The U.S. economy continues to heal, but economic escape velocity remains elusive. Europe is in recession and shows few signs of revamping its growth engines. Japan is still to announce growth-enhancing structural reforms. China has slowed. Some other large emerging countries (e.g., Brazil) are struggling to manage well their economies in the context of such a fluid global environment.

????I worry that, rather than signal positive handoffs, recent changes are indicative of a gradual erosion in the trust that investors have placed in the power and effectiveness of central banks. It would be natural for this phenomenon to start in Japan as the country faces a difficult set of initial conditions and the lowest historical level of policy credibility.

????Should this indeed be the case, look for central banks to be even more aggressive in the next few months as they try to regain control of the narrative. The Bank of Japan and the European Central bank would go further down the road of unconventional policies, and the Fed would not taper QE3 in its upcoming policy meeting as some expect.

????It remains to be seen whether these additional steps would be sufficient to launch yet another robust rally in risk assets. But what is clear is that, absent a solid pickup in growth, they will fuel greater market volatility and threaten even more the longer-term credibility of central banks.

????Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.