????雅典大學（University of Athens）雅尼斯?瓦魯法克斯說，從基本面來看，看好歐洲的觀點是完全站不住腳的。“這都只是煙幕，”瓦魯法克斯說，“歐元區正走在瓦解的道路上。”他認為有關歐洲的前景正在大幅好轉的幻覺建立在三個因素上。

????首先，所有的投資者都垂涎高收益率。這種對高收益率的追逐使得目前收益率處于4%左右的意大利或西班牙主權債券比整體收益率往往高出很多的一般債市要有吸引力得多。“垃圾級公司債如今大受追捧，而歐洲到處是垃圾級政府債，”瓦魯法克斯說。投資者不愿長期持有這些主權債，但仍覺得把這些高票面收益率的債券握上幾個月再賣掉不會有危險。

????第二個因素是允許希臘留在歐元區的意外決定。去年9月，德國總理安吉拉?默克爾訪華尋求援助，為歐盟的一個銀行業救助基金籌金。該基金旨在對行將倒閉的銀行進行資本重組。中國政府同意出手救助，購買債券——條件是，據瓦魯法克斯所說，將希臘留在歐元區。默克爾力挺希臘留在歐元區內，而圍繞歐元區瀕臨瓦解的擔憂情緒也隨之消退。

????第三，歐洲央行（European Central Bank）行長馬里奧?德拉吉承諾動用一切必要手段拯救歐元。德拉吉有效遏制了做空意大利或西班牙債券的交易。若短線投機者狙擊這兩國的債券，或是投資者出現恐慌情緒，德拉吉堅決表示要祭出新制定的直接貨幣交易計劃（Outright Monetary Transactions plan，簡稱OMT），以不限量地收購主權債——進行將收益率推低。投機者應聲撤退，西班牙和意大利國債承受的壓力也隨之減小。事實上，OMT并未動用，但它的潛在威力給當時動蕩的主權債市場打了一劑定心針。

????這三個因素“冰封了金融界的危機”，瓦魯法克斯說。但這些因素沒能阻止從巴黎到馬德里的工廠和店鋪相繼關張的危機。瓦魯法克斯警告稱：“隨著經濟形勢的大陸板塊漂移，發生危機動蕩的可能性會越來越大。”

????使歐元瓦解成為可能（若不是必然）的因素是，整個南歐面臨的不斷加劇的信貸危機。意大利、西班牙和希臘的銀行存款正流向德國，而且隨著越來越多的公司破產，相關銀行的資本也正在不斷消失。因此，即使中小企業能籌措到資金，貸款成本也極高。“在德國，企業借貸資金利率為1.5%，而在南歐卻高達7%，”瓦魯法克斯說，況且企業獲得資金極難。

????北歐充足的信貸和南歐匱乏的流動性形成了鮮明的對比。隨著信貸的構造板塊反向移動，歐元離崩潰越來越近。

????要預知經濟災難的觸發因素和發生時間是不可能的，如同地震學家無法預測何時會發生地震。它可能會隨著意大利或西班牙弱勢政府的倒臺而來臨，或是隨著另一波像上次希臘所遭受的銀行擠兌潮而來臨。

????讓人吃驚的是，許多像布蘭克梵這樣的聰明人，在如此災難性的數據面前仍選擇看好歐元。別被表面的寧靜所迷惑，歐元區有大麻煩。（財富中文網）

????譯者：默默

????The euro-optimism is totally unjustified by the fundamentals, according to Yanis Varoufakis, an economist at the University of Athens. "It's all smoke and mirrors," says Varoufakis. "The eurozone is continuing on a path to disintegration." He credits three special factors with creating the illusion that that the euro's prospects are radically improving.

????First, investors everywhere covet high-yields. That makes the sovereign debt of Italy or Spain, yielding in the 4% range, far more attractive than in a typical market where overall rates are far higher. "Corporate junk bonds are a roaring trade, and Europe is full of government junk bonds," says Varoufakis. Investors don't want to hold those bonds for long, but still feel it's safe to grab the fat coupons for a few months, and then sell.

????The second dimension is the surprising decision allowing Greece to remain in the euro. Last September, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Bejing on a mission to raise money for an EU fund designed to recapitalize failing banks. The Chinese government agreed to buy bailout bonds -- with, according to Varoufakis, the proviso that Greece remain in the eurozone. Merkel strongly argued for keeping Greece in the fold, and fears that the eurozone was near collapse receded.

????Third, Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank, pledged to do everything necessary to save the euro. Draghi effectively promised to decimate traders betting against Italian or Spanish debt. The instant speculators attacked those bonds, or investors turned fearful, Draghi vowed to deploy the newly-created Outright Monetary Transactions plan (OMT) to purchase unlimited volumes of sovereign debt -- and push to hold yields back down. The speculators retreated, and so did the pressure on Spanish and Italian bonds. The OMT hasn't been activated, but its potential power created stability in the then-volatile sovereign bond markets.

????Those three factors "put ice on the crisis on the monetary sector," says Varoufakis. But they do nothing to stem the crisis that's closing factories and stores from Paris to Madrid. "The continental plates are shifting, creating an even greater possibility of an earthquake," he warns.

????What makes a euro collapse probable, if not inevitable, is the deepening credit crunch across southern Europe. Banks in Italy, Spain and Greece are losing deposits to Germany, and their capital is vanishing as more and more corporate customers become insolvent. Hence, small and medium-sized businesses are finding it extremely expensive to borrow, if they can find funding at all. "In Germany, companies are borrowing at 1.5%," says Varoufakis. "In southern Europe, it's costing them 7%." And that's if they can get financing.

????The ample credit in northern Europe stands in drastic contrast to the scarce liquidity in the south. As the tectonic plates of credit move in opposite directions, the euro moves closer and closer to fracture.

????It's impossible to predict what will unleash that economic cataclysm, or when it will happen -- any more than seismologists can forecast when an earthquake will occur. It could come with the fall of weak governments in Italy or Spain, or another run-on-the-bank scenario like the ones that have plagued Greece.

????What's amazing is that Blankfein and so many other smart people remain euro-fans when the data is so disastrous. Don't be deluded by the calm. The euro is in big trouble.