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謎一樣的亞馬遜股票

謎一樣的亞馬遜股票

Kevin Kelleher 2013-05-14
一般而言,毛利潤率增加,表明一家公司業務興旺。收入和自由現金流下降,表明該公司正在遭遇一些阻力。但亞馬遜同時具有上述特征,而亞馬遜發布數據和指標時又堪稱小氣。因此,投資者有時候只能靠猜測來決策。

????亞馬遜有所改善的是另一項投資者看重的財務指標:毛利潤率,它從一年前的24%增至25.6%。這意味著亞馬遜的收入增速快于核心運營成本,而且過去的支出似乎已經開始發揮作用。

????究竟是哪種情況?毛利潤率增加,表明亞馬遜業務興旺?還是,收入和自由現金流下降,表明該公司正在遭遇一些阻力?毫不奇怪,看漲者指向前者,看跌者指向后者。因此,亞馬遜也仍然是科技行業中投資者分歧最大的公司之一。

????亞馬遜正在亞洲和歐洲積極投資拓展業務,但在亞洲遭遇了強大的競爭對手阿里巴巴(Alibaba)。亞馬遜還在投資原創TV節目,與Netflix和Hulu競爭。另外,它還在提升亞馬遜Prime客戶享有的權益,回報客戶忠誠度。所有這些計劃聽起來都不錯,有望推動未來幾年更加強勁的增長。

????自從亞馬遜公布業績以來,該股股價已下滑6%,表明當前看跌者占據了上風。如果投資者能更加清晰地獲悉該公司的業務經營狀況,它將有助于緩解擔憂并給投資者以回報。就算不能派息或提高凈利潤率,提供更多的數據也能讓他們為自己的信心找到理由。

????亞馬遜可能即將進入收入增長放緩、資本開支增加的時期。不管怎樣,篤信者仍在繼續持有亞馬遜股票,長時期低估杰夫?貝佐斯肯定要失算。

????本文作者凱文?凱勒希爾常駐舊金山灣區,撰寫金融和科技領域的文章。

????Where Amazon is gaining is in another financial metric favored by its investors: gross margin, which grew to to 25.6% from 24% a year earlier. That means Amazon's revenue is growing faster than its core operating costs, and that previous spending appears to be paying off.

????But which is it? Are rising gross margins signs that Amazon is thriving? Or are declining revenues and free cash flow signaling that it's hitting some headwinds? Unsurprisingly, the bulls are pointing to the former, and the bears are pointing to the latter. So Amazon remains one of the most divisive stocks in the tech sector.

????Amazon is spending aggressively to expand in Europe as well as Asia, where it faces aformidable competitor in Alibaba. It's investing in original TV programming to compete against Netflix (NFLX) and Hulu. And it's adding to Prime benefits to reward customer loyalty. All of these plans are sound and could lead to stronger growth in coming years.

????Amazon's stock has declined 6% since it reported its earnings, suggesting the bears have a stronger case for now. A little more clarity in how its business is working would help alleviate those fears and reward investors, if not with dividends or high net profit margins, then with more data to help them justify their good faith in the company.

????Amazon may be heading into a period of slower revenue growth and higher capital spending. Nonetheless, the company's believers are sticking with the stock, remembering that it's never paid for very long to underestimate Jeff Bezos.

????Kevin Kelleher is a writer covering finance and technology in the San Francisco Bay Area.

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