????早期風(fēng)投很像棒球運動：如果你作為擊球手每三次就能擊中一次，你就有望進名人堂了。回顧我的職業(yè)生涯，以及我曾經(jīng)參與管理的公司和基金的投資記錄，所見擊中率基本上就是這樣。這里的“擊中”是指投資回報率達到5倍或更高。當(dāng)然，很多投資會達到10倍，甚至偶爾還會超過百倍。

????那么，其余2/3呢？創(chuàng)業(yè)界很少談到這部分。有時候，創(chuàng)業(yè)者會選擇提前退出。他們已經(jīng)獲得了一小部分外部資金，他們將繼續(xù)掌控這家公司，獲得一個他們無法拒絕的出價。這是創(chuàng)業(yè)者的成功，不是風(fēng)投。但無論如何，這對于每個人都是一個好結(jié)果。這種情況可能占到總數(shù)的10%。因此，至少有50%的結(jié)果對于風(fēng)投或創(chuàng)業(yè)者都算不上成功。

????那么，如果不成功，又會怎樣？通常有兩種情況。

????一是“苦干到底”。這種情形最痛苦。它意味著這塊業(yè)務(wù)不是不能做，但不會給風(fēng)投帶來多少利潤，而且由于需要大量的時間和金錢“苦干到底”，創(chuàng)業(yè)者也不會賺很多錢。很多情況下，創(chuàng)業(yè)者會選擇離開，公司不得不招聘外部人士來管理。

????在“苦干到底”的情況下，包袱往往都丟給了風(fēng)投公司。它們已經(jīng)投入了很多，必須想辦法走出困境。有些創(chuàng)業(yè)者會留下來，與風(fēng)投一起“苦干到底”。對于那些曾和我一起“苦干到底”的創(chuàng)業(yè)者們，我懷有深深的敬意。這種情況對他們而言基本沒什么好處。他們這么干主要是出于責(zé)任。這樣的“苦干到底”可能會持續(xù)很長時間。我參與的一些企業(yè)已經(jīng)“苦干到底”20多年了，可能還會持續(xù)到30多年。

????我聽說有些人稱這些公司被稱為“僵尸公司”或“行尸走肉”。這么說有點不公平，因為一家公司如果不能自己養(yǎng)活自己，絕不可能持續(xù)20年或30年。風(fēng)投不會持續(xù)向這樣的公司注入資金，也許在最初的5年會，之后就不會了。這些“苦干到底”的公司最終會轉(zhuǎn)變成真正的公司，但由于缺乏高速成長軌跡或戰(zhàn)略性地位，也難以成為有吸引力的收購目標。

????第二種情況是“撞墻”。在這種情況下，公司現(xiàn)金用盡，再也不能從投資者那里拿到更多的錢。公司難以為繼，兩條出路。要么廉價出售或人才收購(acqui-hire)，要么關(guān)門歇業(yè)。

????廉價出售是首選，近幾年很多風(fēng)投和創(chuàng)業(yè)者都為團隊找到了好的歸宿。由于市場上人才匱乏，廉價出售的安排很多時候都是著眼于標的公司的人才。但如果無法安排廉價出售，公司就不得不關(guān)門大吉。如何有序地關(guān)門歇業(yè)，這事往往還是得風(fēng)投公司操心。關(guān)門歇業(yè)前，必須通知員工，同時支付歇業(yè)前的薪水。所有稅款都必須繳納。房租、銀行貸款等債務(wù)也要妥善安排。如果情況特別糟糕，可能還要提交破產(chǎn)申請。

????Early stage venture capital is a lot like baseball: If you get a hit one out of every three times, you are headed to the Hall of Fame. And if I look back over my career, and also over the track records of the firms and funds I have helped manage, that is pretty much the hit rate I have seen. By "hit" I mean an investment that returns 5x or better. But of course, many of these hits return 10x or even 100x every once in a while.

????So what happens with the other two-thirds? Well that is the part of the startup world that we don't talk too much about. Sometimes an entrepreneur will take an early exit. They will have raised a small amount of outside money, will still control the company, and will get an offer they can't refuse and take it. That's a win for the entrepreneur but not for the VC. But it is a happy outcome for everyone anyway. That's maybe 10% of the total outcomes. So at least 50% of the outcomes are not a win for the VC or the entrepreneur.

????So what happens when things don't work out? There are generally two scenarios.

????The first is the "slog it out" scenario. This one is in many ways the most painful. It means that there is a business that can be built, but it won't be one that makes the VCs much money, and because it takes so much time and money to "slog it out," it doesn't make the entrepreneur much money either. And in many cases, the entrepreneur chooses to leave, and the company has to recruit outside management to operate the business.

????In the "slog it out" scenario, the VCs are often left holding the bag. They have a lot invested in the business and have a responsibility to figure out how to get it out. In some cases, the entrepreneur sticks around and slogs it out along with the VCs. I have great admiration for the entrepreneurs I have worked with who have slogged it out. There is very little upside for them in this scenario. Mostly they do it out of a sense of responsibility. These "slog it out" businesses can go on for a long time. I am involved with some that are well into their second decade, and I am afraid that they may be headed into a third decade.

????I have heard these kinds of companies called "zombie companies" and "the living dead." That's a bit unfair, because there is no way a company can operate for two or three decades without being able to sustain itself. VCs do not keep pouring money into these businesses, maybe they do that for the first five years, but not after that. These "slog it out" companies turn into real companies eventually but just not companies that have the growth trajectories or strategic profiles that make them great acquisitions.

????The second scenario is "hit the wall." In this scenario, the company runs out of cash, and there is no more coming from the investors. The company cannot sustain itself and one of two things happens. There is a fire sale or an acqui-hire, or there is a shutdown.

????The fire sale is the preferred outcome, and VCs and entrepreneurs have gotten pretty good at finding homes for the teams in recent years. There is such a vacuum of talent out there that a fire sale can often be arranged just for the talent that a company has assembled. But often the fire sale cannot be arranged, and the company has to be shut down. Again, the responsibility for an orderly shut down often falls onto the VCs to manage. In a shut down, the employees must be notified and paid through the date of the shut down. All required tax payments must be made. Liabilities such as leases and bank borrowings must be managed. In particularly messy situations, a bankruptcy filing is required.