????但說真的，我們討論的這筆錢不算多——然而我們卻仍在討論的原因是什么呢？有人認為，將來歐盟救助方案——比如說，西班牙和意大利預計會獲得的救助——可能會援引塞浦路斯救助方案的模式。還有人說，這個救助方案可能會導致俄羅斯與歐盟關系趨于緊張。

????但有一個問題更嚴重，發人警醒。這個問題是：歐盟和歐洲央行對一個處境最為脆弱的成員國所表現出來的麻木不仁已經到了令人發指的地步。歐元區“三駕馬車”竟然要求塞浦路斯憑空自籌58億歐元資金，真是令人震驚。這筆資金相當于歐盟GDP總量的0.05%，但卻相當于塞浦路斯GDP總量的30%。同樣令人瞠目的是，歐洲央行負責人馬里奧?德拉吉去年夏天曾經言之鑿鑿說要盡一切力量挽救歐元區，結果卻只給塞浦路斯一周的時間來考慮是否接受協議，否則將停止向該國銀行提供緊急撥款。換做是在美國，這無異于讓美聯儲（Federal Reserve）主席本?伯南克警告美國政府一周之內必須拿出4.7萬億美元，否則他將關閉印鈔廠。

????道德風險方面的訴求可以理解，但如果按照歐元區“三駕馬車”的吩咐，摧毀塞浦路斯的金融業，鑒于它可能對塞浦路斯造成的破壞程度，這就不恰當了。我們現在討論的是，一夜之間抹去該國GDP總量的大約一半，并使得該國債務負擔增加100億歐元（因為“三駕馬車”會要回他們注入的資金）至250億歐元，比這個國家GDP總量的一倍還略高。

????那接下來塞浦路斯如何償還債務呢？去年該國稅收收入19.5億歐元，同比下降了3%。摧毀占該國GDP總量45%的一個行業；破壞另一個占該國GDP總量20%的行業，那么它的稅收將會出現大幅下滑，從而使它的債務占GDP比例陡然上升。法國興業銀行（Society Generale）預測，到2017年塞浦路斯經濟將會萎縮20%。這種預測樂觀得可笑。所有這些即將失業的塞浦路斯人怎么安置？二戰之后占該國出口60%的礦產到現在已經幾乎開采殆盡。海底鉆探天然氣貌似前景可觀，但并不是勞動密集型產業。無論如何，所有的工作都將需要依靠有經驗的外資跨國公司來做。靠橄欖采摘和捕魚業是不可能的，對吧？

????“三駕馬車”竟然要將塞浦路斯置于這種地步已是匪夷所思；更有甚者，塞浦路斯政府竟會聽憑擺布。事實上，退出歐元區，同時依靠自身力量尋求更多具有創意的方式來收拾這個爛攤子，可能更具意義。而那樣的話則意味著主權債務違約，但能保全銀行業。這個島國制定的資本管制制度將最終導致“塞浦路斯歐元”的價值遠低于歐洲大陸歐元的價值，因此一去不回頭、最終與布魯塞爾分道揚鑣可能值得一博。它可以僅僅對歐盟“盟友”出現債務違約，卻與俄羅斯、美國、中東甚至中國建立更為密切的關系。鑒于它的經濟受損情況已經非常嚴重，未來將無法支付債務利息，何不就往前跨越幾章？與其請求緊急援助以支付前一次的緊急援助，何不現在就實實在在地退出歐盟？

????我們現在才開始認識到塞浦路斯危機的后果，并且這場危機離塵埃落定還遙遙無期。上周末在磋商進行到第11個小時所達成的協議行不通，塞浦路斯民眾不會全然不顧地接受它。這種緊急援助模式非但不可取，反倒很有可能為歐盟的最終消亡埋下種子。（財富中文網）

????譯者：默默

????But seriously, this is not a lot of money we are talking about here - so why are we talking about it? Some believe the Cypriot bailout could be the model by which future EU bailouts are done - such as those expected in Spain and Italy. Others say that this could cause major strain in Russia-EU relations.

????While those are important, the big red flag here is the almost sickening degree of callousness the EU and the ECB has shown for one of its most vulnerable members. It is downright appalling that the troika would demand Cyprus come up with 5.8 billion euros out of thin air, while at just .05% of EU GDP is equal to 30% of Cypriot GDP. It is equally appalling that Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, who said he would do everything to save the euro last summer, basically gave Cyprus one week to accept the deal or else he would cut off emergency funding to the nation's banks. That would be like Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke telling the US government to come up with $4.7 trillion from somewhere in a week or else he would shut off the printing press.

????Moral hazard claims here are understood, but irrelevant given the level of the damage that will be inflicted on Cyprus if it goes ahead and does what the troika wants and guts its financial sector. We are talking about wiping out around half of the nation's GDP overnight while adding 10 billion euros (cause the troika wants their money back) pushing the nation's debt load to around 25 billion euros, or a little over 100% of GDP.

????How can Cyprus make their debt payments now? It only brought in 1.95 billion euros in tax receipts last year, 3% less from the year before. You wipe out an industry that contributes 45% to the nation's GDP and hurt another worth 20% you are going to see a major decrease in tax revenue and a subsequent spike in the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio. French bank Society Generale sees the Cypriot economy contracting by 20% by 2017. That seems ridiculously optimistic. What are all the Cypriots thrown out of work going to do? Minerals, which after the second world war made up of 60% of the nation's exports, have pretty much all been mined at this point. Offshore drilling for natural gas seems promising, but it is not labor intensive. In any case, all the work will need to be done by a foreign multi-national with experience. Olive picking and fishing seem out of the question, right?

????It is remarkable that the troika would put Cyprus in this position but it is even more remarkable that Cyprus would go along with it. Indeed it may make more sense to simply bail on the euro and find more creative ways to get through this mess on its own. While that would mean defaulting on its sovereign debt it would do so with some semblance of a banking sector still intact. Capital controls instituted by the island will eventually cause a "Cypriot euro" to be worth far less than a euro from the continent so it may be worth going all the way and saying goodbye to Brussels. It could just default on the debt held by its EU "friends" and forge closer ties with Russia, the US, the Middle East or even China. There is no way that it will be able to service its debts with its economy impaired so why not just skip ahead a few chapters. Instead of asking for a bailout to pay for the first bailout why not just literally bail on the EU now?

????We have just begun to see the fallout from the Cypriot crisis and it is far from over. The deal struck at the eleventh hour over the weekend isn't going to work and the Cypriot people aren't going to just lay down and take it. This is not a good model for a bailout; rather it seems like a great way lay the seeds of the EU's eventual demise.