????塞浦路斯的銀行業危機還遠未解決，很有可能在不久的將來演變成一場更為嚴重的主權債務危機，進而對全球的投資者構成威脅。上周末磋商推出的修訂版救助協議仍然將使這個以銀行業為中心的島國經濟體面臨崩潰，從而制約該國政府未來的債務清償能力。

????要避免再次出現希臘式的經濟崩盤，歐元區官員們其實應明智地構建一份更為務實的救助方案——至少不應該是一個破壞塞浦路斯經濟的方案。無法保證這一點就等于宣告塞浦路斯將面臨連年苦難，同時還會推動歐元區向著痛苦的分崩離析更近一步。

????有關塞浦路斯救助方案協議達成的消息一經傳出，各大市場立刻松了一口氣。歐洲和美國股市周一開盤迅速走高，但隨后投資者們開始真正明白協議的意義所在，市場旋即回吐了漲幅。考慮到這份協議對塞浦路斯意味著的殘酷性，市場的表現就不足為奇了。

????根據這份倉促達成的救助方案，塞浦路斯仍然需拿出58億歐元才具備資格獲得100億歐元的緊急貸款——承蒙歐盟（European Union）與國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）開恩。這個計劃現在只要求對銀行賬戶中存款額超過國家存款保險限額，即10萬歐元的賬戶征稅，而不是（如上周提議的那樣可怕）通過向所有存款帳戶征稅的方式來籌集資金。同時，該計劃也要求關閉大眾銀行（Popular Bank，即希臘語所稱Laiki），并將該行大額存款賬戶資金轉入一家所謂的“不良資產銀行”，這些存款資產很可能最終化為烏有。大眾銀行是塞浦路斯最大的銀行之一。

????盡管值得欣慰的是，大眾銀行存款額低于10萬歐元的存款帳戶將受到保護，但這份協議對塞浦路斯來說仍然相當可怕。由于金融業占該國GDP的比例高達45%，雇傭了該國70%的勞動力。塞浦路斯政府（在歐盟以及國際貨幣基金組織的施壓下）從銀行存款人身上攫取資金的做法無異于摧毀銀行業賴以生存的誠信基石。如果你的賬戶存款超過10萬歐元，你會存在一家塞浦路斯銀行里嗎？如果只有5歐元呢？兩種賬戶恐怕都不會。

????難以置信的是，塞浦路斯政府居然接受了這個會對該國支柱產業信譽造成損害的 所謂“救助方案”。銀行業不是稀缺資源，在類似的存款利息等條件下，客戶可以將存款轉移至其他地區的某家銀行避稅。塞浦路斯之所以成為銀行業中心，就是因為它是一個能確保大筆資金安然存放又毫不聲張的地方。現在政府接受了救助方案，等于是對客戶承認，就算只有一分錢，存在這里也不安全。

????關于俄羅斯人存放在塞浦路斯銀行系統中的資金數量，以及它是俄羅斯寡頭們的洗錢中心等說法已議論得夠多了。也許這在一定程度上都是事實。但仍然還有許多合法資金存放在塞浦路斯的各家銀行里，即便是來自俄羅斯的資金，其中也有合法的。據穆迪（Moody’s）估計，俄羅斯人總計還有240億歐元的資金存放在塞浦路斯各行，超過了該國銀行存款總額（約690億美元）的三分之一。

????The banking crisis in Cyprus is far from resolved and will almost certainly morph into a far more serious sovereign debt crisis in the near future, threatening investors around the globe. The revised bailout agreement hatched over the weekend will still leave the island nation's banking-centric economy in ruin, thus limiting the government's ability to meet its future debt payments.

????In order to avoid another Greek-style economic meltdown, Eurozone officials would be wise to construct a more practical bailout—one that at the very least avoids nuking the Cypriot economy. Failure to do so will not only condemn Cyprus to years of misery, but it would also put the Eurozone one step closer to a painful breakup.

????The markets breathed a sigh of relief on the news that a deal had been struck regarding the Cypriot bailout. European and US markets initially popped in Monday trading, but quickly gave up their gains as investors started to get their heads around the agreement. That is not surprising given how atrocious this deal is for Cyprus.

????The hastily put together bailout still forces the nation to come up with 5.8 billion euros to qualify for a badly needed 10 billion euro loan, which will come courtesy of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. But instead of raising the money by "taxing" bank accounts of all sizes (as what was terribly proposed last week), the plan now calls for taxing only those accounts that exceed the nation's deposit insurance limit of 100,000 euros. It also calls for the wind down of Popular Bank (Laiki, in Greek), one of the nation's largest banks, shoving all the big depositors' cash into a so-called "bad bank" where depositors could possibly lose everything.

????While it is good to see that the depositors with less than 100,000 euros in the bank will be protected, the deal is still pretty terrible for Cyprus. That's because the financial sector accounts for 45% of the nation's GDP and employs 70% of its workers. By basically stealing money from bank depositors, the government (under pressure from the EU, IMF and the European Central Bank), is basically destroying the credibility of an industry where credibility is a necessary condition to be successful. Would you trust your money in a Cypriot bank if you had over 100,000 euros in your account? Would you trust it if you had five euros? Probably not on both accounts.

????It is unbelievable that the Cypriot government would agree to any "bailout" that would hurt the credibility of its main industry. Banking is not some scarce natural resource; depositors can move their money to another bank in another tax haven at anytime with similar perks. Cyprus became a banking hub because it set itself up as a place to park large amounts of cash quietly and safely. Now it is basically saying to its clients that it isn't safe to deposit one cent.

????Much has been talked about the amount of Russian money in the Cypriot banking system and how the island is a money laundering hub for its oligarchs. That may be true to some extent, but there is still plenty of legitimate money, yes, even legitimate Russian money, in Cypriot banks. In total, Russians have an estimated 24 billion euros stashed in Cypriot banks, which is more than a third of the nation's total bank deposits of around 69 billion euros, according to Moody's.