????所有這些因素在塞浦路斯導演了一出大戲。

????官方債權人對自己的整體資金貢獻加以限制【100億歐元（807億元人民幣）】，對做出巨大讓步的條款則避而不談。他們堅持說剩余資金【80億歐元（645.6億元人民幣）】應由塞浦路斯和PSI共同承擔。在官方債權人看來，塞浦路斯是一個不夠嚴謹的離岸銀行業中心，他們同時希望改變這種局面。

????塞浦路斯方面認為，短期內自己所能辦到的事項有限。它同意采用PSI，但發現參與者人數不足（包括次級債券持有人）。

????塞浦路斯和歐洲官員選擇了一個折中辦法，那就是對銀行存款征稅，包括此前獲得擔保的存款。這種做法史無前例，它把小額存款人和外國大儲戶一網打盡，引發了全國性的強烈抗議，險些造成政局失控和社會動蕩。這種做法還動搖了神圣的存款保險制度，可能在國際上產生不利影響，因此遭到了廣泛譴責。

????目前，塞浦路斯和歐洲官員只好重頭再來，設法提出一些更有條理的方案。與此同時，民眾投向他們的目光變得越來越缺乏信任，他們所能使用的手段也太少，難以實現多重目標。

????預計他們將對周六所提方案中最不能讓人接受的部分進行調整，但他們不會解決根本矛盾，而正是這種根本矛盾從一開始就削弱了歐洲應對政策的作用。這些矛盾基本上無人理睬，它們仍然在緩慢地蠶食著歐洲一體化進程在經濟、金融、政治和社會一體化方面所取得的成果。

????理想情況下，塞浦路斯援助方案能讓歐洲官員向著化解本地區危機所需要的戰略決策更進一步。但包括德國和歐洲央行在內，實力最強的國家和機構似乎并不準備提出最重要的戰略建議——他們要么以更小、而且更不完美的歐元區為目標，要么同意為實力較弱的歐元區成員提供遠遠超過以往水平的永久性補貼。

????歐洲官員很可能再次選擇臨時性戰術折中措施。雖然他們的目的是改善當前的混亂局面，但如果出現經濟停滯、政府失靈、政策工具不足以及失去民眾信任的困難情形，他們還是得執行戰略決策，而當初的折中就會讓這最終的執行變得更加復雜。

????穆罕默德?埃爾埃利安是投資公司太平洋投資管理公司首席執行官兼聯合首席投資官，還是美國全球發展委員會的負責人。（財富中文網)

????譯者：Charlie

????These factors played out dramatically in Cyprus.

????Official creditors imposed an overall limit on their financial contributions (EUR 10 billion) and shied away from highly concessional terms. They insisted that the residual (EUR 8 billion) should be covered through a combination of Cypriot efforts and PSI. They also wished to change what they perceived as Cyprus's standing as a lax offshore banking center.

????Cyprus felt constrained in what it could deliver in the short term. It agreed to PSI but found that there were not enough of the usual suspects (including junior bond holders).

????Cypriot and European officials opted to reconcile all this through the use of a levy on all bank accounts, including those previously covered by deposit guarantees. This unprecedented step, which impacted small savers as well as large foreign deposit holders, provoked a massive national outcry -- risking political disorder and social unrest. It is also attracted widespread condemnation as it risks adverse international spillover effects by undermining the sanctity of deposit insurance schemes.

????Officials have now been forced to go back to the drawing board in an attempt to come up with something more coherent. They do so under the glare of an increasingly mistrusting population, and with too few instruments to meet the multiple objectives.

????Look for them to tweak the most outrageous aspects of Saturday's Cyprus package. But do not expect them to resolve the underlying inconsistencies that have undermined the European policy response from day one. Left largely unattended, these inconsistencies continue to slowly eat away at the economic, financial, political, and social integrity of the European integration project.

????In a perfect world, the bundled Cyprus rescue would bring European officials closer to making the strategic decisions needed to get ahead of the region's crisis. But the strongest players, including Germany and the ECB, do not seem in a position as yet to make the biggest strategic call of all -- either target a smaller and less imperfect eurozone, or agree to a very substantially larger and more permanent subsidization of the weaker members of the union.

????European officials are likely to again opt for temporary tactical compromises. Yet in seeking fewer disruptions upfront, they end up complicating the implementation of the strategic decisions that will ultimately be forced on them by the painful logic of economic stagnation, political dysfunction, insufficient policy instruments, and a mistrusting population.

????Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO. He also heads the U.S. global development council.