????如果英國公投決定退出歐盟，倫敦金融城可能會(huì)猛然覺醒。上周，銀行家和政治家們紛紛表態(tài)淡化英國退出歐盟的潛在負(fù)面影響，但事實(shí)上這仍然存在許多潛在的破壞性后果，可能確實(shí)會(huì)威脅到倫敦金融城作為歐洲金融中心的地位。現(xiàn)在英國政府和倫敦金融城的金融公司必須做好功課，準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)英國可能退出歐盟的局面。不然的話，華爾街以及歐洲大陸和亞洲其他新興金融中心可能會(huì)成功攫取倫敦金融城的部分光環(huán)。

????上周，英國首相戴維?卡梅倫就英國在歐洲的未來發(fā)表講話。卡梅倫稱，未來某個(gè)時(shí)候英國人民將公投表決是否繼續(xù)留在歐盟。他的這個(gè)表態(tài)是對(duì)黨內(nèi)保守普通議員的一種妥協(xié)。他所在黨派的許多成員覺得歐盟的法規(guī)和限制性規(guī)定變得難以接受。卡梅倫稱，如果歐盟實(shí)施一些改革，讓英國免于向布魯塞爾和法蘭克福進(jìn)一步移交主權(quán)，在公投時(shí)他個(gè)人會(huì)號(hào)召民眾支持英國留在歐盟。

????在他的講話以及隨后的評(píng)論中，卡梅倫及其政府一直回避直接討論英國退出歐盟可能會(huì)對(duì)倫敦金融城產(chǎn)生的影響。英國的龐大金融業(yè)主要集中在倫敦金融城。在這方面，采取這種立場的不僅僅是英國政府。的確，人們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，很難找到深度評(píng)論英國退出歐盟對(duì)倫敦金融城潛在影響的新研究報(bào)告。在金融城從業(yè)的銀行家和基金經(jīng)理們對(duì)這個(gè)問題也沒有考慮太多。他們指出，倫敦一直是國際金融中心，如果真的出現(xiàn)公投，那也是四年以后的事了，現(xiàn)在就去猜測英國退出歐盟的潛在影響未免為時(shí)過早。

????但要說英國退出歐盟對(duì)倫敦金融城沒有直接或間接的影響，這就很難讓人相信了。畢竟，英國金融行業(yè)規(guī)模龐大，占全國GDP的10%，占全國稅收收入的11%。盡管人們可能更傾向于考慮英國繼續(xù)留在歐盟的可能并將注意力聚焦于今天的問題，但是，英國退出歐盟是一種真真切切的可能性。

????的確，大多數(shù)英國人并不熱衷于留在歐盟。2011年底，英國調(diào)查組織Yougov針對(duì)英國人所做的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，在有關(guān)英國直接的去留問題上，50%的受訪者表示，他們會(huì)投票支持脫離歐盟，而只有25%的人表示他們將投票支持留在歐盟。因此，最終的公投結(jié)果現(xiàn)在還不能妄下結(jié)論。除非到時(shí)候英國人的態(tài)度發(fā)生重大轉(zhuǎn)變，否則到2017年，英國或許真的會(huì)退出歐盟。

????果真如此，相關(guān)人士現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)該開展工作，研究英國如何快速地脫離歐盟，同時(shí)又能把倫敦金融城的許多歐洲業(yè)務(wù)盡量保留下來。成千上萬的法律以及數(shù)十項(xiàng)條約將需要重新制定或商定。這一過程可能會(huì)耗時(shí)數(shù)年，如果沒有做好的話，可能會(huì)因此付出數(shù)百億歐元的代價(jià)。

????The City of London could be in for a rude awakening if the United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union. While bankers and politicians have spent the week downplaying any possible negative externalities associated with "Brexit," the name given to the UK's potential withdrawal from the EU, there still exist a number of potentially damaging consequences, which could indeed threaten the City's position as Europe's financial hub. Work must be undertaken now by the British government, as well as by firms in the City, to prepare for a possible Brexit. If not, Wall Street, as well as other budding financial centers on the continent and in Asia, could successfully steal some of London's financial glamour.

????Last week, UK Prime Minister David Cameron gave his speech on Britain's future in Europe. Bending to conservative backbenchers in his party, Cameron announced that the British people would sometime in the future vote on whether or not to remain in the EU. The rules and restrictions of the common economic zone were getting too much for many in his party to bear. Cameron said that he would personally campaign for the UK to remain in the EU at the time of the referendum if the EU were to undertake a number of reforms – much of which involve the UK receiving a pass on a number political changes that would see more national sovereignty transferred to Brussels and Frankfurt.

????But throughout his speech and in the comments that followed, Cameron and his administration avoided speaking directly about the consequences that Brexit could have on the nation's golden goose -- the City of London, its massive financial industry. The UK government wasn't alone here; indeed, one would be hard pressed to find any new studies commenting in any real depth on Brexit's potential impact on the City of London. Bankers and fund managers who work in the City didn't give Brexit much thought, either, noting that London has always been a pivotal place for international finance and that any referendum, if it were to happen at all, was to take place in four-year's time, far too long of a time horizon to speculate on Brexit's potential impacts.

????But it is hard to believe that the City won't be either directly or at least indirectly impacted by a UK withdrawal from the EU. After all, the financial services industry is massive, accounting for 10% of the nation's GDP and 11% of its tax receipts. While it might be easy to look the other way and focus on today's problems, the fact is that Brexit is a real possibility.

????Indeed, most Britons aren't fans of the EU. A Yougov poll of British subjects conducted at the end of 2011 found that in a straight in-or-out referendum, 50% of people surveyed would vote to leave the EU with just 25% saying they would stay in. So this vote shouldn't be taken for granted. Unless there is a major shift in sentiment then the UK will be indeed withdrawing from the EU in 2017.

????If that's the case then work needs to be done now to figure out how the UK could quickly and easily extricate itself from the EU's tangled web while retaining as much of the City's European business as possible. Thousands of laws and dozens of treaties would need to be reworked or renegotiated, a process that could potentially take years and cost tens of billions of euros if not done right.