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法國成歐元危機隱形不定時炸彈

法國成歐元危機隱形不定時炸彈

Shawn Tully 2013-01-14
法國是歐元創立的主要推動者之一,長期以來也是歐元區的第二大經濟體。但它如今面臨的競爭力下降問題卻比歐元區其他任何成員國都要嚴峻。而且,它沒有采取任何措施來改變這一點。一旦到達臨界點,它的經濟有可能出現閃電式的崩盤,給歐元區帶來致命的打擊。

????2005年以來,法國單位勞動力成本(比如,生產一輛汽車或一根鋼梁的費用)增長了17%,相比之下德國只增長了10%,西班牙增長5.8%,愛爾蘭增長2%。如今,法國工人的每小時工資為35.3歐元,意大利只有25.8歐元,英國和西班牙則是22歐元。

????結果是法國制造業以及從咨詢到物流的配套服務業都大幅下滑。企業利潤在GDP中的比例已劇降至6.5%,僅及歐元區平均值的60%。這是因為法國出口商的市場份額在萎縮,那些存活下來的企業必須降低利潤率,給出更有競爭力的價格。因此,它們也缺乏資金來建新工廠和投資新技術。法國的出口企業數量如今僅及德國或意大利(或許讓人吃驚)的一半。德國工業得益于其19,000臺機器人,這一數量是法國的5倍。過去4年,法國的研發支出也削減了50%。

????值得注意的是奧朗德政府正在打算通過加大企業負擔來增加政府收入。去年9月,法國宣布了新法律以限制付息抵稅和虧損結轉抵稅,事實上加大了企業稅負。這些措施將導致本已微薄的企業利潤進一步縮水,阻礙未來的投資。

????假如法國專長生產利潤豐厚的高精尖產品,這樣的成本差距可能還不會那么有破壞性。誠然,法國在時裝、奢侈品和制藥領域仍然具有相當的實力。這些行業是法國經濟的亮點,但同時,這個國家也非常依賴汽車、紡織、鋼鐵、電信設備和其他中低利潤率產品,這些產品在國際市場上對價格相當敏感?!胺▏跈C床或高端電腦設備等高精尖產品方面一直都不具備強勁的實力,“巴黎Flash Economics的讓-克里斯托弗·卡菲說?!凹幢闶窃诟叨耸袌?,很多份額也被德國搶走了?!?/p>

????比方說,德國專長制造高品質汽車,奧迪(Audi)、梅斯德斯(Mercedes)和寶馬(BMW)這些品牌就算價格漲一點,人們也愿意掏錢購買。相比之下,法國制造的雷諾(Renault)和標致(Peugeot)價格定位較低,如果不保持低價,潛在客戶就可能被福特(Ford)或菲亞特(Fiat)搶走,因此只能滿足于一點微薄、甚至近乎不存在的利潤。

????法國也沒有追隨鄰國降低勞動力成本的步伐,對潛在危機做出應對。21世紀頭一個十年中期,德國邁出了一大步:批準第四階段就業改革方案——哈茨四號(Hartz IV),降低企業社保負擔。最近,西班牙將領取全額養老金的退休年齡從65歲上調到了67歲,并允許在公司層面進行工資談判,獨立于全國性的強制上調薪酬體系。意大利也將在未來六年內把女性退休年齡從60歲逐步提高到66歲。

????但2012年5月份當選的法國總統弗朗西斯·奧朗德則采取了溫和的舉措。法國政府承諾小幅減輕企業社保負擔,但這項改革要到2014年才會啟動,而且只會持續兩年。

????競爭力問題直接導致法國經濟未來可能缺乏增長,進而引發財政危機。值得注意的是,上世紀90年代中期,法國的失業率、預算赤字和債務/GDP比率都低于德國,而經濟增速卻幾乎一致。如今,所有這些數據都倒了個。

????Since 2005, France's unit labor costs -- the expense of producing a single car or steel beam, for example -- has jumped 17% compared with 10% for Germany, 5.8% for Spain, and 2% for Ireland. Today, French workers earn an average of 35.3 euros per hour, compared with 25.8 in Italy, 22 in the UK and Spain.

????The result is a steep fall in French manufacturing and the services that support it, everything from consulting to logistics. Corporate profits have plunged to 6.5% of GDP, about 60% of the euro zone average. That's because French exporters are losing market share, and the ones that survive must lower margins to charge competitive prices. As a result, they lack the funds to invest in new plants and technologies. France now has half as many exporting companies as Germany and, amazingly, Italy. German industry benefits from 19,000 robots, five times the number in France. As for R&D spending, it's dropped 50% in the past four years.

????Remarkably, the Hollande government is raising revenue by heightening the burden on business. In September, France announced new laws that limit deductions for interest payments and loss carry-forwards, effectively heaping higher taxes on business. Those measures will shrink already meager profits, and crimp future investment.

????The cost-gap wouldn't be so damaging if France specialized in sophisticated, high-margin products. Indeed, the nation remains strong in fashion, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals. But though those offerings symbolize France's economic élan, the nation is heavily dependent on autos, textile, steel, telecom equipment and other mid-to-low margin products that are extremely price sensitive on world markets. "France has never been strong in high-end, sophisticated products like machine tools or high-end computer equipment," says Jean-Christophe Caffet of Flash Economics in Paris. "And even in the high-end, it's lost a lot of market share to Germany."

????Germany, for example, specializes in fancy cars, Audis, Mercedes and BMWs that folks are willing to keep buying if prices rise a bit. By contrast, France makes cheaper Renaults and Peugeots that risk losing sales to Ford or Fiat unless manufacturers hold down prices -- or settle for puny or non-existent profits.

????Nor is France reacting to the looming crisis by following its neighbors' campaign to lower labor costs. Germany made big strides in the mid-2000s with its Hartz IV reforms that lowered the social charges on businesses. Spain recently raised the retirement age for full pensions from 65 to 67 and allows wage negotiations at the company level, a departure from the centralized system of imposing mandatory nationwide increases in pay. Italy is gradually raising the retirement age for women from 60 to 66 over the next six years.

????But Francois Hollande, elected president in May, is taking far more tepid steps. The government is pledging to modestly lower social charges on businesses, but the reforms don't start until 2014, and last just two years.

????It's the prospect of a future without growth, a direct legacy of the competitiveness problem, that could unleash a fiscal crisis. It's remarkable that in the mid-1990s, France had a lower unemployment rate than Germany, smaller deficits, less debt to GDP, and approximately the same growth rate. All of those measures have now totally reversed.

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