????迄今為止，有關(guān)歐元區(qū)的擔(dān)憂一直都圍繞著飛漲的債務(wù)和預(yù)算赤字。但這些財(cái)政問(wèn)題的源頭主要是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力喪失。如果產(chǎn)品制造成本過(guò)高，經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯不前、甚至倒退，即便小幅提高政府支出也會(huì)壓垮那些預(yù)算赤字龐大、負(fù)債過(guò)多的國(guó)家。在這樣零增長(zhǎng)或負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的情景下，情形通常都是一樣的：私營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮，政府支出持續(xù)攀升。

????這種情形已經(jīng)在意大利、西班牙和其他陷入困境的歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)上演。不同之處是，那些國(guó)家正在采取結(jié)構(gòu)性改革重塑自身競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。法國(guó)沒(méi)有采取任何類似的舉措。因此，不斷擴(kuò)大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力差距將很快引發(fā)一場(chǎng)財(cái)政危機(jī)。令人吃驚的是，這么龐大的一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，這么廣受尊重，可能也會(huì)這么快倒下來(lái)。

????全世界的投資者以及對(duì)歐元區(qū)持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度者都應(yīng)當(dāng)意識(shí)到法國(guó)可能帶來(lái)的威脅。危機(jī)正在逼近。

????最能體現(xiàn)法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)走下坡路的是它對(duì)外貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)的迅速惡化。1999年，法國(guó)出口額占全世界出口額的約7%。如今，該比例僅略高于3%，而且還在迅速下降。沖擊出口的高成本因素同時(shí)也在吸引德國(guó)、中國(guó)甚至南歐國(guó)家的產(chǎn)品不斷涌入法國(guó)。這些進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品正在從定價(jià)更高的法國(guó)制造產(chǎn)品手中奪取越來(lái)越多的市場(chǎng)份額。2005年，法國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差為其GDP的0.5%。如今，法國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差已經(jīng)達(dá)到了GDP的2.7%，意味著法國(guó)進(jìn)口已遠(yuǎn)超出口，貿(mào)易從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引擎轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榱艘淮笸侠垡蛩?。最能體現(xiàn)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力差距的是德國(guó)對(duì)華出口和法國(guó)對(duì)華出口數(shù)據(jù)的巨大差異。每年德國(guó)出口至中國(guó)的汽車(chē)、機(jī)床和其他產(chǎn)品達(dá)到700億美元，是法國(guó)的7倍。

????甚至連法國(guó)旅游業(yè)也因?yàn)閮r(jià)格高昂而缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。越來(lái)越多游客來(lái)自亞洲、巴西、印度和俄羅斯，法國(guó)在吸引這些注重性價(jià)比的游客們方面顯得力不從心。21世紀(jì)第一個(gè)十年中期，外國(guó)旅游者在巴黎香榭麗大街和蔚藍(lán)海岸等地的支出比法國(guó)人海外度假支出高出了150億歐元。如今，這個(gè)差額已縮水1/3至100億歐元左右。

????造成法國(guó)成本劣勢(shì)的主要原因是勞動(dòng)力成本，勞動(dòng)力成本在全球所有企業(yè)開(kāi)支中約占70%。在法國(guó)，這個(gè)問(wèn)題源于高工資、社保負(fù)擔(dān)和僵化的法律規(guī)定，包括每周35小時(shí)工作制，法國(guó)雇員的工作小時(shí)數(shù)是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家中最少的一個(gè)。法國(guó)8,800萬(wàn)工薪族中有7,600萬(wàn)人享有“無(wú)固定期限合同“這樣的長(zhǎng)期雇用協(xié)議，使得裁員代價(jià)非常高，而且耗費(fèi)時(shí)間。

????在法國(guó)，每支出100歐元就有42歐元用于社保。相比之下，德國(guó)為34歐元，英國(guó)26歐元，美國(guó)20歐元。

????當(dāng)然，限制諸多的法律和敵對(duì)的工會(huì)不是什么新鮮事物。導(dǎo)致情形一發(fā)不可收拾的是近年來(lái)勞動(dòng)力成本的快速上漲，而競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手卻降低了勞動(dòng)力在總成本中的比重。

????So far, the worries over the euro have centered on dangerously rising debt and deficits. But those fiscal problems are primarily the result of a loss of competitiveness. When products cost too much to make, the economy stalls or actually declines, so that even modest increases in government spending swamp nations with big budget shortfalls and excessive borrowings. In this no-or-negative growth scenario, the picture is usually the same: The private economy shrinks while government keeps expanding.

????That's already happened in Italy, Spain and other troubled eurozone members. The difference is that those nations are adopting structural reforms to restore their competitiveness. France is doing nothing of the kind. Hence, its yawning competitiveness gap will soon create a fiscal crisis. It's absolutely astonishing that an economy so large, and so widely respected, can be unraveling so quickly.

????The world's investors and the euro zone optimists should awaken to the danger posed by France. La crise est arivée.

????France's decline is best illustrated by the rapid deterioration in its foreign trade. In 1999, France sold around 7% of the world's exports. Today, the figure is just over 3%, and falling fast. The same high costs that are pounding exports draw an ever rising flow of goods from Germany, China and even southern Europe. Those imports are taking an increasing share of sales from pricier French-made products. In 2005, France's trade balance was a positive 0.5% of GDP. Today, it stands at minus 2.7% of national income, meaning imports now far exceed exports, turning trade from a growth-generator into a major drag. An excellent illustration of the competitiveness gap is the chasm between German and French exports to China. Germany sends $70 billion in cars, machine tools and other products to China each year, seven times the figure for France.

????Even tourism is suffering because of the France's high prices. France is now struggling clientele from a surging, bargain-seeking tranche of the market, travelers from Asia, Brazil, India and Russia. In the mid-2000s, foreigners spent 15 billion euros more visiting the Champs Elysees and the Riviera than the French paid to vacation abroad. That surplus has since fallen by one-third, to around 10 billion euros.

????The main reason for France's cost disadvantage is the burden of labor, a factor that typically accounts for around 70% of all corporate expenses worldwide. In France, the problem comprises a both high wage and social costs, and rigid laws, including a 35-hour work week that allows French employees the lowest number of working hours in the developed world. An astounding 76 million out of 88 million wage earners enjoy "contrats a durée indéterminées," permanent contracts that make layoffs extremely expensive and time-consuming.

????In France, 42 euros for every 100 euros in total expenses go to social charges, versus 34 euros in Germany, 26 in the UK, and 20 in the US.

????Obviously, the restrictive laws and hostile unions are nothing new. What's causing the crippling malaise is the recent rapid rise in labor costs when rivals are lowering or moderating the weight of weight of their workforces.