????印度和巴西讓你擔心的問題是什么？

????印度人似乎就認定他們不用做什么，就可以達到8%的經濟增長率。和中國不同，印度要改變政策非常困難。印度亟需批準更多外國投資來提高生產率。

????巴西的一個基本問題是本幣估值過高。第二個問題是除了大宗商品行業，巴西其他行業不是很有競爭力。除非他們能做些什么來振興非大宗商品行業，否則，巴西經濟可能繼續不景氣。不過，我要補充一點，今年他們都已經采取了措施來降低貨幣估值。這些舉措有相當的風險，但讓人印象深刻。

????人們將墨西哥、印尼、韓國和土耳其的英文首字母縮寫“MIST”（迷霧四國）也歸為你的創造。迷霧四國的表現會好于金磚四國嗎？

????我看不出來。但我知道這是現在很流行的一個概念。

????那么，你根本不信這個據說是你創造的流行概念？

????這個字母縮寫的出現是因為我們有一次在寫到發展中經濟體時提到了金磚四國和其他這四個國家。有些韓國記者抓住了這一點，就寫我又創造了一個新詞，這時我才第一次聽到這個詞。這四個國家都很有意思，可能也會表現不錯。有些可能在短時期內可能經濟增速還會快于中國，但我認為這種可能性很小。韓國的人口結構還不如中國。墨西哥、印尼和土耳其的人口結構確實很好，但它們有很多其他問題。

????你說中國正在從一個出口型經濟轉向一個消費型經濟。哪些國家將從中受益？

????我認為，墨西哥將是真正的大贏家，因為中國在低附加值行業上的競爭力將不如過去15年。過去，墨西哥曾屢屢處于下風。意大利的奢侈品制造商們將繼續受益，德國公司也是如此。投資這些公司正當時，因為中國消費市場是這個十年最大的投資主題。很可能美國也會受益。中國市場已占到蘋果公司（Apple）銷售額的20%。如果它能繼續維持一家超級大公司的地位，原因就是是因為中國。

????What's your fear about India and Brazil?

????The Indians just sort of assume they can grow at 8% without doing anything. Contrary to China, they find it really difficult to change policies. India badly needs to allow more foreign investment to boost productivity.

????Brazil's basic problem has been that their currency became far too overvalued. That added to their second problem, that the noncommodity sector of their economy is not very competitive. Unless they can do something to boost their noncommodity industries, Brazil might continue to struggle. But I add that they've done things to reduce the strength of their currency this year that are risky but quite impressive.

????People have been attributing another acronym -- MIST, for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey -- to you. Will the MISTs do better than the BRICs?

????I can't see why, though I know it's a very fashionable story at the moment.

????So it's a fashionable story attributed to you that you don't even buy into?

????The acronym came about because we wrote about growing economies, which mentioned the BRICs and the four others. Some South Korean journalist got hold of that and wrote that I had created a new acronym, which was the first I'd heard about it. All those countries are interesting places and will probably do well. And some may have brief periods where they grow more strongly than China, but I think it's very unlikely. South Korea has worse demographics than China. Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey do have very positive demographics, but they have lots of issues as well.

????You say China is changing from an export economy to a consumer economy. Which countries will benefit?

????I think Mexico is a really big winner, because China can't compete in the low-value-added industries that it did the past 15 years. And Mexico suffered badly from that. Italian luxury-goods makers continue to be winners, as do German companies. It's the right play because the Chinese consumer is the biggest investing story of this decade. And it's quite possible the U.S. will benefit. Apple (APPL) already has 20% of its sales in China. If it's going to continue to be a powerhouse, it will be because of China.