????如果問問投資者2013年擔心些什么，大多數人的回答必然會包括中國。吉姆?奧尼爾是個例外，而且可以毫不夸張地說，他已經將自己的職業前途押在了中國的經濟成功上。早在2001年，我們大多數人仍然震驚于網絡泡沫的破裂時，奧尼爾卻用巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國這四個國家的英文首字母炮制出了“BRIC（金磚四國）”一詞，并宣稱這四個新興經濟體，特別是中國，未來十年將推動市場發展。后來雖然爆發了金融危機，但他的預言大致是正確的。現在，有些人開始擔心中國這個世界第二大經濟體可能崩潰。現年55歲、掌管超過8000億美元資產的高盛資產管理（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）董事長奧尼爾依然樂觀。他預測中國經濟從制造向消費的轉型有望實現軟著陸。他相信，2013年中國股市將和日本、歐洲那些此前表現低迷的股市一起領先于全球股市。下面是經過編輯的采訪節選：

????最近，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）策略師魯吉?夏爾馬等人紛紛唱衰金磚四國，認為投資者們不應指望這些國家。

????事實上這取決于人們原來的預期是什么。我不知道有多少正常人真的會預測中國經濟增速將保持10%。

????他不光是說中國沒有實現預計的10%增速。他說的是中國的經濟增速將來可能連5%都達不到。

????2010年和2011年中國經濟增速出現下降是因為政策制定者們非常擔心通脹，通脹曾在很短的一段時間內大大高于目標水平。當然通脹的上漲與中國城鎮房價的急速上漲也不無關系。因此，他們特意放緩了增速。但是，要說中國經濟增速將降至5%或以下，那就拿出依據來，我是想象不出。

????中國大量農村人口已經進城，總體人口結構趨于老齡化。因此，人口結構將不再是中國的優勢因素。

????首先，中國的城市化進程可能還只是進行了一半。第二，現在人們突然開始說：“哦，中國遇到了人口結構挑戰。”我的感覺是，“過去十年你們都睡著了嗎?”對于那些長期以來關注中國的人們來說，這些都不是什么新鮮事，特別是對于中國的決策機構而言。他們已經開始重視經濟增長的質量，注重提高生產率，而不只是依賴龐大的農村人口進城。我認為印度和巴西有些東西值得擔憂，但就中國而言，我要說的就是，它的表現好于我的預期。

????

????Ask most investors for their list of concerns for 2013, and China is on it. Jim O'Neill is an exception -- and it's not much of an exaggeration to say he has staked his career on that country's success. Back in 2001, when most of us were still dazed by the dotcom bust, O'Neill created the acronym BRIC, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He proclaimed that those emerging economies, China's in particular, would drive markets for the next decade. The financial crisis notwithstanding, he has been broadly correct. Now some fear a bust in the world's second-largest economy. O'Neill, the 55-year-old chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GS), which oversees more than $800 billion, remains optimistic. He predicts a transition from manufacturing to consumption that will create a rare soft landing. And he thinks that Chinese stocks, along with battered markets in Japan and Europe, will lead the pack in 2013. Edited excerpts:

??? Lately people such as Morgan Stanley strategist Ruchir Sharma have been critical of the BRICs, arguing that investors shouldn't count on them.

??? It really depends on what people expected. How anyone in their right mind could seriously have expected China to continue to grow at 10% I'm not really sure.

??? His claim is not just that China hasn't lived up to its expected 10%. He's saying China isn't even going to grow 5%.

??? China slowed in 2010 and 2011 because policymakers were very worried about inflation, which was way above target for a brief period and of course linked to a very dramatic rise in urban house prices. And they deliberately slowed it. To argue that China is in the process of slowing to 5% or less -- anyone is entitled to a view, but I don't see what premise it's based on.

??? Well, the Chinese have moved to cities, and they're aging. So the demographic wind won't be at China's back anymore.

??? First of all, they're probably only about halfway through urbanization. Second, the fact that people are suddenly saying, "Oh, China's got a demographic challenge." I'm like, "Where have you all been sleeping for the past decade?" It's been known by those who follow it closely and, most importantly, by Chinese policymakers. That's why they've been focusing on better quality of growth and boosting their productivity rather than rely on sheer numbers of people urbanizing. I see things to worry about in India and Brazil, but if anything, China is doing better than I expected.